Member Info for Joshwaa

Still alive @dai, thanks for the concern. Am lurking on the boards mostly at the moment as have been supremely busy, but am still well and truly in ADV. Good to see you're doing well here.
J

Nice price rise since Friday. Still moving within the 18 month old channel. After bouncing off of the 3p area last week I'm watching to see if we break the 3.65-3.7 upper bound this week as that could start the real northward journey.
Q4 shall be rather exciting, I hope.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G3yzAkf7/
J

Cheers @intothedeep, it was the only minor concern I had. Sad that the market is rather muted in regard to PAT but looking good otherwise.

This is an interesting paragraph:
"DFR will maintain its 80% interest on the condition that it invests US$18.0m in the project by 30 September 2026. If DFR were to make no investments in Labola during the specified period, subject to the exercise by Panthera of its buy back right (described below), its interest would decrease to no less than 60%."

Does that mean DFR could refuse to make any investment between now and 2026, and still retain 60% interest in Labola?

EOW chart

Glorious week this week, and just the way I'd like to start my holiday week, lovely stuff.

Here's how we ended:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZuKrboCd/

Enjoy your weekend folks.

J

Here's ADV's chart at the close of the day:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rqwe7VcA/
We've dropped back into the 1yr+ old price channel again as I theorised we could a week or so ago (I was saying there could opportunity for 'ultra bargains'. Well we're drifting there).
Assuming the price remains steady tomorrow then we could well test, and bounce around the mid of the channel (dotted line), which is a very safe/neutral place to be as far as price channels go, especially as we are due to receive notification of the formal rig contract soon. Supports like this are also great places for the price to lift off from on receipt of good news.

I added a little more today at 3.05, but will wait for more solid consolidation near the mid of the channel before adding any more 'chunks'.

Arguably it's all bargain territory down at these prices, but making the most of my money is a deep-rooted habit for this displaced Yorkshireman.
J

This is how it looks after a satisfying day at HE1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tySY7HqS/

J

We're on the same page this morning, must be an omen.
18p was the major support for the anticipation of, and commencement of the first drill.
I'm expecting volatility between 16p-18p.

It's a wonderfully positive way to start the day!

@dai,
I noticed it too but I just put it down to MM's manipulating the supply and demand dynamics to ensure liquidity in the market while we wait. It checks out on the chart too as we're still moving around in the top section of the trend channel, fairly neutral, but poised for a leap when the news comes.
I don't think we can really make any headway in price though until contract comes through so price might be being guided along here for now.
J

Disagreement is fine and your view is what works for you. RSI is very subjective however, hence why I don't trade it and prefer to use it as a probability function, i.e. in the deeper into sub 25 territory increases the probability of price turning around. It is by no means a certainty.
An RSI of sub 20, so 16.5 as we are on the 1D, is oversold by most views I've ever seen, however, I have also seen in my experience stocks continue to be sold for many days in the 10-25 region of the RSI, due to small let-ups in selling.

Who knows what will happen here. But I reiterate my view "It's still up in the air as to [today's] price, but I feel slightly more positive than negative".

Let's see.

Hi BigPlan, a little late this eve but better late than never.
I think Wyn tends to use much smaller timeframes as a trader so the RSI there will be different, but he is far more TA than me so that suits his approach.
I go with 4hr and 1D charts and on both of those the RSI is significantly oversold.
Here's the 4hr chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/IO7EjM1k/

There's been a bit of consolidation down here in the wide range of 12-13.5p, which I find quite positive.
RSI, as labelled on the chart is 16.54 at the close. Such a low figure usually requires many days of consolidation to recover, or a decent run up in price.

On the 1D chart, here https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLJckj35/, the RSI is also very oversold at 23.71 and sings a similar tune to the 4hr chart. The daily candle shows a wide range between max high and max low price, with a tight range between the open and closing price, which suggests undecidedness in the market as to the direction. There is positive inference in the fact the price closed higher than what it opened at.

It's still up in the air as to tomorrow's price, but I feel slightly more positive than negative.

A rise in price would be great tomorrow, but seeing as it is a Friday I'd be equally pleased with more consolidation here in readiness for next week.

J

Just testing to see if this link works. It's the Hannam and Partners 11th Aug report for those who can't or won't access Pjonesy's Telegram link.
Let me know if it works:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CgLPqGAJsQBTPXmH_l_K4mwIAPjbJ4h1/view?usp=drivesdk

I see the trend you're referring to saint-tropez, but where ZPHR was in their project at 3.5p is not congruous with where ADV are right now.
We don't have a formal contract for the drill rig yet for one.
I've posted the chart below of where ZPHR was at a moment in time more correlative to our current situation:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FtVEYW69/

The movements in price are very different to what ADV's price moves have been, which is fine, they're two different companies.
The important point I draw from the ZPHR chart is that their sp made it's first big moves, not on award of the drill contract, nor drill commencement, but rather it was after the release of the first well update, and 3 days after in fact. They had a fairly steady growth in price in the meantime.

It's always hard to say where the sp will go, and when, but from what I can see I'd reiterate my previous belief that the more we consolidate here and bring down the RSI, the more we build a platform for a price hike, possibly in time for the arrival of the RNS delivering the formal rig contract. We'll see.

I'll still make a project to properly overlay the two companies chart-wise as I think that could be fun. In the long run too.

Following up on Saint-tropez suggestion to consider ZPHR's progress I've put together an annotated chart based on their RNS releases.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HWMpLwNU/
All RNS's are price marked and described. I've also included the percentage rise or fall from one RNS to the other, as of the closing price of the day the RNS was released.
Most astute observers will notice that the big moves tend to happen in between the RNS releases and that the RNS itself sometimes comes with a large drop in price. This is just standard stock market practice as the price will rise in expectation of what is ahead and this therefore provides a catalyst for a 'sell-the-news' drop on the day.

I hope to follow up on this with a more direct chart for chart comparison of ADV and ZPHR later, but I hope the chart I've posted is one step towards colouring how the journey may unfold for ADV.

J

I'm intrigued Saint_tropez.
I'm currently in my favourite chair, enjoying a glass of single malt and listening to some music but will pick that up in interest tomorrow all being well.
Good night all.
Sithee
J

Chart of todays moves: https://www.tradingview.com/x/cPysJNww/
Also in line form for those not familiar with candlestick: https://www.tradingview.com/x/W5tAKaYf/

Holding really well up here near 3.5p. The longer the price stays in this 3.3 - 3.5p range the more of a support it is forming, and the more the RSI will fall which altogether could provide an incredible base from which to jump from once more.

Yesterday I said that the price could drift lower revealing further 'ultra bargains', and this is is still true, but the firmer the support gets here the likelihood of the price dropping becomes reduced.

It might not be the high flying moves of last week, but this week is looking very sound to me.
J

So, today was brutal. But this is the kind of thing we expect I guess. Next hole, move on.

Here's how today's price looks: https://www.tradingview.com/x/UHEQzvrp/
Also in line form for anyone struggling with candlestick: https://www.tradingview.com/x/YiIzyuZS/

No longer in neutral territory due to the RNS, and dramatically so, so the old chart annotations have been erased as they tell the previous story, not the current one.

No idea where we go from here. Let's wait and see.

J

Dbd,
Thank you, and to you too.
I'm pretty chuffed at my mornings work.
Full disclosure though, achieving parity this morning (so far...) has cost me more shares here than I am ultimately comfortable with, so I shall be selling a sizable chunk in the near future to derisk my portfolio again.

I would like to hear from DM himself now regarding next steps.

Dbd,
Buy one get 5 free is about right.
My chart shows a big red area, but in my mind that was with the assumption that a duster would show little or no helium, rather than 'we couldn't test it'.
A duster is a duster, but we're funded for a few more attempts yet. On that basis, this is worth my money.

Haven't posted till now this morning as I've been busy buying up cheap shares :)

This mornings purchases have even negated the losses haha. As it stands, of course.

@Kevinround,
No worries. It's purely just my opinion, and it may be a little premature, but I feel that because the sp didn't gain much headway above the channel, and subsequently came back into it (bearing mind how old this sp channel is) I can see the price continuing to meander up and down between the upper and lower bounds.
My take on there being some ultra bargains potentially still available (and I mean absolute daylight robbery) is that we may see the price drop back in the near term. The mid point, or average, of the channel is 2.9-3p for the next few days, the lower bound is nearer 2.4p, though with the sentiment here now that seems a looong way off.
Either way many many bargains whilst we're in this channel.