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"Its already known that vaccines do not stop the spread of the virus,"
I guess you haven't read the breaking news of the last week but it was confirmed that in fact, they most likely do.
"The results of the study, which has not yet been formally published, suggest that the vaccine may have a "substantial" effect on transmission of the virus.
It means the jab could have a greater impact on the pandemic, as each person who is vaccinated will indirectly protect other people too.
Mr Han**** called the study "really encouraging" on Twitter, adding that the results were "absolutely superb".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55913913
Countries, particularly those that rely on tourism will be eager to get their borders open as the vaccine rollout continues. Countries such as the UK are leading the drive and with the entire UK adult population expected to be vaccinated by August, you can expect by Q2/Q3 things will be looking much rosier for airlines.
Heck, all over 50's and those with underlying health conditions are expected to be vaccinated by May. I.e. by the end of Spring.
It can be argued that since they are vaccinated, we can open up entirely as the risk to the rest of us is minimal.
*part of being shrewd
Hows the short holding up? Must be great being short in a stock poised to recover during the recovery phase of a global pandemic lol.
You may be around but I suspect quite a bit poorer.
I think its time you close that short to minimise your losses. You tried desperately but you failed. Part of being screwed is knowing when the wind is turning and cutting your losses.
If it's any reassurance to you, the SP was 931p on December 12th when the vaccine news and bullishness on recovery was at it's peak last year.
I would say we are in a much better position now.
I suspect we will see 900p+ again this month or early next month.
Just because you want something to happen, doesn't mean it will.
A.Smithy is short and wants it to drop. Unfortunately for him, the fundamentals are shifting to the upside.
Shorts have had their day, their month, heck, their year. But nothing lasts forever....
- Global vaccination program is in effect with over 10% of the UK already vaccinated.
- Vaccines are effective at preventing serious disease
- Vaccines are effective at preventing transmission
- Vaccines pipeline is strong
- Existing vaccines are being improved
- All UK adult population expected to be vaccinated by August
- Easyjet balance sheet is strong
- Air Travel/Holiday demand is strong
- Easyjet market share is up due to fewer competitors
- Talks of lifting of restrictions by March
- Airline summer demand forecast are looking strong
Happy to be long. I own 11,500 shares in Easyjet and am here for the expected recovery.
We're on the verge of quashing this thing and China have shown just how strong a bounce back can be. Most analysts expect growth to return in 2021.
Now is the time to buy for the recovery and if I was short, Id run to close it. The sun is starting to shine on the horizon.
Prof Andy Pollard, from Oxford University, said tweaking a vaccine was a relatively quick process and would only need small trials before roll-out.
It comes as the UK announced more than 10 million people had received a jab.
There is still strong evidence existing vaccines work well against the mutations that have emerged. Although their overall effectiveness may be weakened a little.
The comments came after results released by the team showed the first evidence the vaccine can reduce the chances of people catching and passing on the virus, which has always been uncertain.
The data, which has not yet been published or reviewed, showed vaccination with the Oxford-AZ jab could cut transmission by up to 67%.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55917793
Oh and the UK is still on track to have given the entire UK adult population 2 jabs by August, having already vaccinated.
So far 9,646,715 people (14% of total population) have already received the first dose and of those, 496,796 (almost 1%) have received the second dose so far.
This is an optimal strategy as we know that the AZ vaccine is most effective with 2 doses, spaced 3 months apart and the first dose offering excellent protection on it's own, with the booster a few months later.
What you are seeing boys and girls is a massive game changer.
If the vaccines not only stop you getting ill but also stop you from transmitting the virus, the reduced spread will mean the infected population will drop dramatically. This is excellent news indeed. It cannot be understated.
In terms of vaccine effectiveness, what A.Smithy fails to realize is that mutations are very normal. Vaccine manufacture is an iterative process, whereby the vaccines are always playing catch-up to the latest strains/mutations in order to provide the required protection from the more deadly effects of the mutated virus.
The fact that the vaccines we have are effective against all known strains, including the South African strain is excellent news.
All the while, the same manufacturers are enhancing their vaccines effectiveness with the latest strains as they appear, in order to provide even better protection, which should also convey some protection to emerging strains, such that they then can be effectively treated until an even better vaccine comes along.
This is how the annual season flu vaccine works. It is a tried and tested model. Oh and the Influenza virus mutates faster than Covid as far as we are aware so far.
Israel who is ahead of everyone has provided some remarkable data on the vaccines. "Israel’s health ministry released its first official results last week, showing that only 317 out of 715,425, or 0.04%, of people became infected a week after becoming fully vaccinated against the disease – the time when increased immunity is expected to kick in. Of the vaccinated people who were infected, 16 had to be treated in hospital, or 0.002% of the total.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/israel-covid-vaccination-data-offers-hope-exit-pandemic
Regardless of what A. Smithy thinks, we are starting to win this battle, and the battered share prices of airlines should start recovering going into summer. Easyjet are well poised to capitalize on this recovery with a strong balance sheet, and increased market share due to less competition. That and the fact that pent up demand is likely to explode come summer.
I have since increased my exposure here by 100% at 750p this week.
@A.smithy
So melodramatic is actually cute. Where to begin..
There are multiple vaccines currently being given around the world and 100+ more still in development. You think the likes of AZ/Oxford, Moderna, Pfizer etc are sitting on their laurels now that their product is being put into peoples arms? Of course not. Their R&D and testing programs are working continuously on developing and testing their existing vaccines and new vaccines against any new strains, refining their product, ensuring they stay ahead of the game.
My wife is an immunology researcher which comes in handy to understand all this stuff. Vaccines are designed to have a multitude of immune responses to the human body, such that there is a large degree of protection, even if vaccines mutate in a short period of time. The human body is trained in several ways to defeat the invader.
In terms of mutation fear, we have a new flu vaccine developed every year for the most virulent strains but we also already know that Covid mutates slower than the Flu virus. We also know that the Flu vaccine is 30-50% effective at best but we have 95% effective vaccines for Covid.
The strategy the UK government are following is to lock down and quash the spread whilst people are vaccinated to give the best bang for buck to ensure as little mutations occur and are spread whilst the vaccine program is rolled out and elicits an immune response to everyone it's given to. It is an optimal strategy.
When you say "It is highly likely that those who have been vaccinated will need to be vaccinated again next winter", I'd like to ask what expert opinion you base that on for one. Secondly, even if it is true, so what? The people who primarily need this vaccine are those above 60 and those with underlying health conditions. The same criteria for those that have the flu vaccine, and we dispense those vaccines without any hitch whatsoever. Don't conflate the current emergency time-bound vaccine drive with the business as usual annual vaccine programs that the NHS already runs and is more than capable of delivering without a hitch going forward.
By Spring/Summer, those most in need of a vaccine will have been vaccinated and I expect most of the world to start gearing towards normalcy. If in any doubt, look at China. Back to normal and the only country to show GDP growth in 2020 after stopping the virus spread dead in it's tracks.
I suspect Air Travel to be one of the industries that bounces back hard sometime this year.
Biden has on several times said he would rule out a national lockdown. I wouldn't expect one.
Already up over £3k.
Happy to hold this.
Rampers don't shoot the messenger
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/
@Buy-Sell
Right wingers often use with such as socialist, Marxist, communist as derogatory dismissive term without having a clue what they mean however that's a conversation for another time.
What I would like to see if a fairer system which isn't so favorable to the rich. It isn't rocket science and asking for such a thing does not make you a left wing nutjob. I'd like to think I'm fairly center in my political ideology.
Why should the poor pay their full taxes whilst the rich are allowed to hide their money offshore. Why should big tech be allowed to pay no corporation tax in this country when making billions from this country. Why should bankers bonuses be protected when they caused the financial crash that destroyed so many lives. etc etc.
Why do thieves go to jail but when you're a thief in a large company, no-one gets prosecuted.
I pay my taxes and invest with my hard earned. I think your perception of my grievances is again wholly tilted to extremes, likely fed to you my the DailyFail who sensationalize and exaggerate everything.
I am not an anti capitalist. I am an advocate for a fairer system where the same rules apply for all parties, irrespective of your bank balance/colour/creed/political affiliations/religious beliefs etc.
Just because you employ people and they pay taxes, does not mean you shouldn't either. Lots of business, small and medium, do the exact same thing. Having staff that pay their taxes, yet they don't funnel their monies into offshore accounts or get ridiculous tax breaks due to loopholes that can only be exploited by really rich companies The system is designed to be advantageous to the super wealthy. Less taxes mean less public money to pay for schools, hospitals, roads etc, that we all share.
In terms of sovereignty. I'd be interested to know what you're so eager to be sovereign with come January 2021 should their be a no deal scenario. "Let's take back control" is the slogan of brexiteers so they can be rid of foreigners, keep the fish stocks etc etc but nothing comes for free. When you form a trading relationship, there are always rules and regulations. You are never completely sovereign. You don't have free reign to do what you want. You follow the rules or you walk. You make a choice and stick to it for the betterment of everyone or you leave it entirely and take with it the consequences. Being sovereign is an illusion because you don't get free reign to do whatever you want if you want something in return.
"Take back control". More like give up leverage and give up a global standing. I don't see the benefits personally.
When the world is coming together to form trading blocs, the UK is running away from it's biggest neighboring one and with it, losing standing on the world stage. The US too under Biden isn't Britain's best friend.
I stand by what I said, Little Britain.
In my personal opinion, Brexit is the result of a global shift towards right wing ideology, predicated on the fallacy that globalization and foreigners are responsible for the $hit lives people have and the ridiculous divide between the wealthy and the poor since the financial crash when in fact, lack of regulation, greedy corporations/politicians, and expert media spin have convinced the masses that they are not to blame but rather it's the foreigners stealing all our jobs and benefits. That foreigners are buying all our houses. That foreigners are bleeding our NHS dry. That foreigners are bad for us. That we have to fight wars on terror to defeat the foreign enemies that lie in our midst. It's a sick joke.
Ultimately it all comes down to money and since the financial crash, the world is still reeling from it. Those in power all got away Scott free. The rich lined their pockets, the average Joe suffered the most, governments propped up the wealthy corporations using tax payers money, state spending reduced on things like policing, teachers etc. Not building enough houses. Not improving rail. Not spending money in the north and keeping most of the money in London. Giving tax breaks to the wealthy, general austerity policies etc etc. Society has suffered so much since the crash and most people can't see the wood from the trees as to what is actually going on. You're being mugged. It's not the foreigners you should be worried about. It's the ones at the top that have convinced you that they're on your side and that you must team up against the foreign enemy when in fact, they're giving small with one hand, and taking big with the other.
It's all just a perfect $hit storm for right wing populists to capitalize on to peddle their own self serving agenda. I mean come on, one of the things that really grinds me is how can the UK right wing populous complains about EU migration and migration policies when net migration in the UK over the last decade has been higher from outside the EU than within, for which the UK government has full discretion to close the doors but haven't done so. It boggles the mind.
Now I am not a fan of the EU in it's entirety but it has been a force for good in so many levels. It needs a tonne of reform but still, the fundamental idea of coming together to solve complex issues is one that should be fought for.
You don't have a say unless you're invited to the party, as the saying goes. Britain should be fighting for reform from within but of course it doesn't suit the elitist agenda. I wonder how many of these rich Tories have bet against Britian since the Brexit vote. I bet most of them have.
Little Britain, with Scotland wanting rid too. I feel for the next generation, living in a country run by rats, followed by sheep.
Rant over.
Agreed with these points.
I sold out of all my holdings today apart from Shell. It's going to be a $hit day today and I would most certainly not want to gamble on what the UK/EU decide on Sunday. Likely it is looking like a no deal scenario, in which case, I am sitting out of the potential market turmoil about to come.
@Onlyonewhufc
Thanks for coming on here and replying to me. It made all the difference. I'm not your parent either but thanks.
@mrzeroh
Agreed. Lots of risk, but also potential for good rewards.
I'm being risk averse, but good luck to those holding over the next 24 hours.
@Onlyonewhufc
I convinced myself when I made the choice. I explained my rational, that's all.
It is largely known we have a way out of Covid-19, unless you're expecting the US to not approve it for some reason. Do tell if that's the case?
@latpulldown
Stating you think the good news is already priced in does not mean you are trying to talk a share down to get a lower entry. It means simply that, you've read the news, gauged the markets, and think the news is largely priced in.
The rational? Well, the UK approved it earlier in the week, vaccinations have already started, and still no new euphoria in the markets. Canada approved it yesterday and the markets were mute. In fact, Cineplex finished down yesterday and is up a mere 0.32% today.
Saudia Arabia has approved it too.
My point is, it is largely expected to be approved by the FDA, especially with all the positivity coming out of it and the approved safety data mentioned earlier by the FDA. A formality if you will. I think the vaccine good new rise has happened and is over. It happened a few weeks back when this went from 25p to 73p.
I think the realization now is that, we have a vaccine but there is a long road ahead with respect to getting people vaccinated and started to open things back up. It will be months before any cinemas are open again and a lot of it depends on how the vaccination programs are run. There is also the cloud of uncertainty around studios and how they will behave in 2021 in terms of releases. The Disney call later today is going to be telling. No-one expected the WB news.
It may rise tomorrow, it may not. If it does rise, it'll be modest in my opinion. If it doesn't and the news from Disney is bad or unsympathetic to theaters, I think we will see a drop. Either way, I don't too any immediate need to hold the share. I've taken my £1k+ profit off the table and will look for another potential entry in the days/weeks/months ahead when I think it'll probably be lower than it is today as things quieten down.
FDA News for tomorrows approval may already be priced in considering the FDA said that the vaccine was safe yesterday. Plus I'm wary as to what Disney might announce in their call today.
Oh decisions, decisions.