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Wow. Some serious fuddage going on here tonight lol. Anyone would swear some bears been caught with they're pants down with yesterday's announcement making bloomberg news... reckon there's a string of positive updates to come too. BWTFDIK. ;)
There isn't a placing coming to my very informative knowledge lol
That placing is to let the boys in before unleashing a stream of good news. Mark my words. Now is not the time to be selling. Trust me on this.
If I'm piecing this together right, the company now has roughly 2bn in unrestricted liquid cash.... thats 10 times the mcap...? Surely we should now be trading at over 1bn valuation, even applying a 50% discount to cash. WTF lol
Leave him be, he's an NCYT holder. Says it all really lol
Lol..... erm NO!! This will have a TXP style rise over the course of the year. Mark my words. GLA
"So, as long as you are prepared to take the geo-political risk here, then I think that this offers significant upside to investors over the next few years, and it is a company whose shares I am considering investing in myself in the near future as well, even more so if we do see any sort of dip in oil prices and a knock-on effect on the share price."
Gross production guidance for this year is forecast to be in the 35,000 to 36,000bopd range, and an update is due shortly, but it was on track to hit that as at the interims which were published in September.
Since then the company has also successfully worked over the SH-12 well which has led to a gross field increase of 5,000bopd, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see guidance exceeded.
Whilst 2020 has all been about preserving capital during this period of low oil prices, and saw the company putting on hold its expansion plans for the field, as long as oil prices start to recover, then I expect to see significant production increases next year and beyond, with the resumption of the development project to take Shaikan to 55,000bopd, and beyond that we could see the FDP approval for gas re-injection and phased increases to 75,000bopd.
The company is also looking to commence production from the Triassic reservoir with a pilot targeting an initial rate of around 10,000bopd, and on a success case basis that would eventually be expanded to an overall rate of 110,000bopd from the Jurassic, Triassic and Cretaceous layers combined. All of this is dependent on commodity prices though and the company is biding its time until those improve.
Reserves figures for the Jurassic reservoir ,which is currently being produced, aren’t particularly impressive, with 2P reserves of just 3 million barrels, and a further 53 million barrels of 2C contingent resources.
But looking at the Triassic and Cretacious it is easy to see where the huge potential upside lies, as there is combined 2P reserves of 575 million barrels (193 million of 1P) and should development go ahead then the current market cap hugely undervalues the company – even more so when you consider that the long term operating cost target is $3/barrel. So even allowing for the terms of the production sharing agreement, that is of huge value to a company of this size.
I think that the company is in a strong position to achieve its goals as it has conserved its cash well this year – it had $140 million in the bank at the start of September, and whilst it showed a significant net loss of $33 million for the first half of the year that was as a result of depreciation and depletion costs applied during a period of extremely low oil prices, and it actually generated over $24 million of net cash from its operating activities.
As well as conserving cash wisely, I would also argue that it has engaged in a share buyback programme at a good time as well, which will pay off for investors in the future.
It does have debt of around $98 million, but that is long term with no repayment due until 2023, by which time I would expect oil prices to have been much stronger for a significant period of time, and even with the Capex required for its expansion plans it should be generating significant amounts of net free cash flow.
Not sure if TW's piece on GKP been shared here yet, thought I would do the honours though. The fact the uber troll is not talking it down and claims to be buying shares is a very good indication of where this is headed. Anyways good luck all. Article below
This year a lot of private investors seem to have been focussing on any stocks even loosely associated with Covid, plus those in the tech sector, and more recently mining has also seen a resurgence, gold in particular, but oil and gas has very much remained unloved and out of favour. That gives you a great opportunity and this is no fisherman’s tale…
I don’t see this opportunity lasting forever. Whilst there may still be some volatility and dips ahead for the oil price – a lot of the recent rise in price has been based more on sentiment surrounding the vaccine news rather than much in the way of significant strengthening of the supply and demand dynamic – I do think that next year the market will start to improve.
Historically we have tended to see some very significant rises in commodity prices for oil in particular, but also gas, following periods of low prices and greatly reduced investment into bringing new fields online, which tends to create a supply squeeze further down the line. The cyclical nature of the commodity also tends to create over-reactions at the bottom of the troughs – as we saw when oil price futures briefly went negative on the day of settlement earlier this year – but also at the top of the peaks, and although I wouldn’t necessarily be betting on a return to the days of $100+/barrel oil, I certainly see a good chance of it hitting $80 or more at some point in the next two or three years.
So for me this makes it the perfect time to be considering buying oil producers, and whilst some of the largest companies have already seen strong bounces off of the lows that they hit, I think that the really big rises will come from those with smaller market caps, but which have the potential to greatly increase output over the coming years.
There are a number that I am watching closely on this basis, and Gulf Keystone (GKP) is one of those at the top of my list, even though up to now it has never really lived up to expectations, and has also always traded at a fair sized discount based on the geo-political risk which stems from the fact that its operations are based in Kurdistan, and although recent payments from the production sharing agreements with the government have come on time, that hasn’t always been the case in the past.
I accept that the location of its operations will put some people off, but at the same time I would argue that it is more than priced in and that the current market cap of just over £200 million at a share price of 97p offers significant upside potential, and even more so when you consider the plans to expand production from its 80% owned Shaikan field in the coming years, and based on the reserves figures.
Yes. Its decreasing while the price is rising. Exhaustion. If it doesn't take a breather it will fall just as fast then we're all doomed again lol
Just bare in mind the reason for the fall before getting carried away. Many here still bare the scars from the accounting scandal that caused the fall . Sorry to be voice of reason but the price has rallied for two weeks largely off twitter traders drumming up interest, most of which have probably sold/selling. Mr Frumpkins recent purchase does bode well though, however there are still massive hurdles that need to be crossed
If you're in from near the lows, we'll done, it's not a bad place to be taking some profit off the table people. Price is looking red hot at the moment and new money wanting in will not be interested in chasing the price up. Mm's know this so expect a pullback, nothing goes up in a straight line. Retest of £0.90-£1 level is on the cards. If that happens and shorts have not increased load up again. Just opinion. We still have a long long way to go.
Following statement is from Bank of England's own website.
"From next year onwards, we intend to publish individual MRELs, rather than an average, for all firms with an indicative MREL above capital requirements.
We are committed to, before the end of 2020, reviewing the calibration of MREL, and the final compliance date, prior to setting end-state MRELs."
Stop purposely trying to cause doubt, when you are factually incorrect. Thanks. Lol
Mark Minervini's definition of a superperformance stock:
"One that at least tripled in price and increased at a minimum rate of three times during a two-year period."
Stocks that have a chance to become superperformance stocks share these characteristics:
1. Large increases of earnings
2. Mergers and acquisitions.
3. New management.
4. New products.
5. Dominate niche markets.
Open Orphan has all these characteristics and I believe it has a very real chance of becoming a super performer
can sell 250k above mid..!!!!!
Shakeout..!! Haha. Only one way we going! Up up up lol
Whats the 1400% target all about then...? Where does that come from? Not plucked out of thin air I hope lol
Is it new broker target or something?
£2.30...? Thats a strange number to throw out there... Interestingly though is it's just over 100% premium to CEO's last purchase.. hmm
That news is a big deal actually lol. No way we should be trading down here!!!!!
Net Inter-company debtor balances were GBP1,166m for AA Intermediate Co and GBPnil for AA plc as all non-trading balances were eliminated in AA plc as part of the 2013 financing transaction;