RE: Follow the money...21 Jan 2022 19:34
AK - thanks for response, and taking my message in the jovial manner that was intended hence the smiley face. others seem to see it as a mocking gesture.
while the real economy data is looking good it currently does not reflect the shift in the markets today, and while we all hope that the markets will, sooner or later reflect underlying economic data, it is not always the case hence "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" .
There is the commentary that BTC follows Nasdaq, this can ring true based on reasonable assumption, given the risk asset label that is assigned to BTC. It follows that when Nasdaq drops then risk assets get hit the hardest. Flight to safety and all that, cash is only 'trash' until you want to liquidate and hold on the sidelines. We also have had the link of BTC as inflation hedge / Store of value all depends what story suits best at what time. Just depends what story you want to buy :).
'Now, they’ve gone the other way, also to the extreme. How many rate hikes are priced in already? I was scooping up oversold tech two hours ago, thrilled that ii’s were selling me some of their best stocks.'
rate hikes - at first it was two, then three, lastest 4, dont think we are at 5 yet but could have missed that news. markets have gone extreme i agree, pricing in faster rate hikes, but once points are hit on the way down, then the algo's exacerbate the drop. "Buy when there's blood on the streets" but how much blood :)
Your joy at buy tech on the 'cheap' really depends on your personal timeline & perspective. Will they still be cheap if the NAS drops another 10%? Not likely to happen due the the real economy right? Once again irrational market.
We have come off the back of the fastest monetary expansion in history and had the party, time for the hang over, sentiment will change, underlying economic data may stay healthy markets might reverse, pigs might fall from the sky :), point is all depends on your time horizon.
good luck with your buys, market due to turn mid year, so 'they' say.
'Here’s my take: Since I believe that most people are wrong about most things most of the time (including me)'
That is definitely the case in this game.