Member Info for Happytom

Have they heard something new I wonder, or just a sensible reading of the progress that we're making? Divi's on the way soon!?

So, what you're saying is that the Q4 results are even more of a disaster than we're expecting, so you see a big fall when they are published, followed by a rally as news is released that things are in place to move forward :)

I think someone has hijacked Lofty's account - either that or the pharmacist at Boots gave him some different pills :) Seriously, good to hear you being more positive again Lofty, feel free to share what you gleaned from Rob, unless he asked you not to do so! Happy

Anyone got thoughts on whether we'll get a mid-Feb update, or will we hear nothing until full year results in March? Haven't had any nice big stone updates for a while, but we must have found something significant in the last three months! Ta Happy

Absolutely - I have said for a long time that my target for this is somewhere north of £2, but I have a long-held concern that we have a vulnerability for a take out at around 28-32p, possibly up to 40p. Why am I concerned when the value is clearly so much higher? Elliot for one, they have a large holding (big enough to block pretty well anything that anyone else throws in, at effectively 28% with the outstanding debt) - were they to get bored of this company / decide that they want to put the money elsewhere, then that is a big chunk to go to a hostile bidder. The concern was exacerbated back in October before we won the Eco loan and there looked to be a real cash-flow problem on the way (at the time, the only production was Inata at around 1200 USD / ounce, with a large chunk having to be sold into the hedge at around 900 USD / ounce, so we were in a big hole unless PoG miraculously jumped back to around 1600!). Now though, less concerned - we have a cash-flow issue sure, but the BoD have made the very sensible move to skip a capital repayment to Elliot and keep operating, rather than make the payment and leave us without any working capital. Its not a long term fix, but gives us breathing space, and opens the way to discuss a debt for equity swap with Elliot at a valuation that will encourage them to hold onto their shares. GLA Happy

Thanks Pompey, that affects it, although I'm not sure by how much - to reduce from 8 to 4, there will be a big in cease in annual production, and corresponding reduction in costs. Happy

There's a question with no real answer! On the face of it, a lot more than they are at the moment, but it would depend on finding a buyer obviously. However, to put some very basic thumbnails together, and start to show why FP, Lofty, Myself and others stick with what appears to be a complete dog.... Tri-K feasibility has approx recoverable gold of 385K ounces. CapEx for that is sub $90M, total recovery costs are around £787 / ounce. So Tri K recovered and processed gold selling at $1200 would be worth around $70M. Inata current plan is a bit less clear. Probably around 135K ounces recovered for 8 years. Plan is in place to reduce recovery costs to around 900 (actually a lot less, but I'm not sure that that is realistic), so again taking the $1200 sell price, INATA recovered gold is worth around $325M On top of that is Souma, with no details available at this time. So, if you were looking at it as a shark, recovered gold in ground is worth around $400M across the known mines, pay a third of that and take off the outstanding loans, and you are somewhere north of $70M, so without any goodwill, know-how, intangibles, tax benefits etc, you're still looking at 22p a share. Personally, it's worth a lot more than that - we have other mines still to quantify, and the BoD have shown themselves very capable of finding other prospects at good prices, so no reason for that to stop, plus over the next eight years we will see dramatic PoG variations - each $100 / ounce for our holdings would add another 45p per share! There is absolutely no real reason for this share to be down where it is at the moment! PS, all my own beliefs, opinions etc, and I'm a mathematician, so it's entirely likely that I can't add up! Happy

I understand your sentiment - felt the same way when we fell last week, but the lack of any proper negatives has led me to feel otherwise about this. Kicking myself a bit - was a toss-up as to whether to put more in here or into SOLG this morning, and of course SOLG decided to push back up 25% whilst we sat pretty static. Ho Hum! However, that rise in SOLG does say something about the market - they should be struggling through lack of any clarity on a route to production, and some very sketchy assay results, but they've been bouncing around 50% up and down for the last month or so - either MMs just raping, or there are still enough folk out there that believe that PoG is not moving too far from where it is right now.

Numbers stack up for what you describe, and it makes sense - I'd do the same if I was in the position that they are in, but it doesn't explain why they elected to buy back all of the hedge and in so doing leave us short of working capital. I guess that if they have deliberately taken the price down, then it discourages Elliot from taking their options and getting up to the higher percentage ownership, but that's all speculation. I've almost run out of channels now, and not come up with anything concrete from anyone, decided to top up as there appears to be no reason other than blind AIM panic for us to be down here again, so fully expect to be back at 16-20p in the very short term. Happy

'thought that rubber rings were all the rage in your neck of the woods at the moment, get some great big ones to put on the cars instead of wheels and all the disruption will stop!

They are indeed - I decided to risk it for a biscuit and top up once more, and mine are showing as sells / unknown - probably my broker shorting me, but the intent is for buys - see if they balance later in the day, pretty easy to spot!

Of course they were stitched on the Wega deal, but find me any M&A where both sides really benefit! Biggest stich up was the hedge, but that may not have seemed so bad at 2000 USD / ounce, and all got carried away. However, we are now where we are, the stuff in the ground is worth huge amounts more than the company valuation at present and Eco are a bigger creditor than Maq / Elliot, so no guarantees of who would wind up benefactor in a debt for equity swap. No panic, lets watch it pan out! Happy

Or more recently, Goldman Sachs shorted their own advice, created a panic, sent global markets into a tail spin and made an absolute killing by stealing from governments around the world (I can say that with impunity - they accepted the verdict and not that comparably whopping fine from the US). They, Cannacord and others will be doing the same here, so just ignore it until the worm turns. Still can't figure exactly what news we have not been told though - hoping to find out tonight! Happy

what a delightful picture you paint - what is this, some well used trawler?

Not that suspicious - first full on trading day of a new year, after the silly season adjustments and tomfoolery! However, have you seen PoG today - the last 12 hours almost exactly overlay yesterdays, minute for minute, now that is suspicious!

Curious - they re-iterated a buy at 24p just before Christmas. How can analysts be so inconsistent, and in doing so how do they show any kind of credibility to their clients? Webbed one, where did you see the Westhouse update - looks a bit old to me? Ta Happy

Still digging to see what hasn't been made public yet, but not come up with anything. I did however find some thumbnails that I did back in November, based on a sell price of 1250 (maybe optimistic for this year, but I actually don't think so looking at the deficit in deliverable gold at the moment). If the new plan is approved, with the subsequent reduction in overall costs, then that would yield something around 25M PA profit, on top of the remaining Inata. Against a current market cap of around 17M GBP, that looks pretty good to me for buying in, BUT as I have said, I'm concerned as to what we have not been told - has the Tri-K plan been rejected, or is it just a 25M or thereabouts liability that had been lost - if the latter, then no real concern as I would say that this can be offset in a single year against new revenues from Tri-K. ATB Happy

Happy New Year all, looks like it will be a good one from my perspective, hope I'm not wrong! BR Happy

still digging Lofty - will update when I know something concrete. The article is as you say a lot of hearsay / interpolation of public announcements. The Elliot loan is a non-issue, or at least not a game changer, Elliot indirectly still own a huge chunk of this company, and it is not in their interests to cause a fire sale of assets. I'm not buying any more this week however - even if I had the spare capital, I'd like to know a bit more about what the BoD have uncovered in the last month - there is undoubtedly a large skeleton fallen out of the closet that was hidden to all or some of them when the Eco loan was agreed and then spent! Happy

What's the old saying - if you owe the bank a million, you're in trouble; if you owe the bank ten million, they're in trouble. We have a very long and close relationship with Elliot, so something will be sorted, but it will have a negative impact on cash flow, unless the convertibles are still active. To be honest, there's not a lot out there that will drive this dramatically down, we're currently sitting at about 97% down on mid-term high, and the shiny stuff in the ground has a value that won't go away. BR all Happy