Member Info for Hailesinvestor

Seems to trade between 20p to 45p over the last three years, how long have you held ? What catalysts are you looking for ?

I guess a takeover could happen, 6 x ebitda gives you a market cap of 30 million, this is currently trading at only 3 x ebitda, strip out the net cash and it's around 2.5 x ebitda.

I have started buying recently at sub 25p, will look to build up my holding over the next few weeks / months.

Operating profits of 3 to 4 million, net cash of circa 2.5 to 3 million against a market cap of less than 16 million. Looks very good value.

If only you knew what ??

Lots of small / mid caps have taken a beating recently, that plays a part.

That is the bizarre thing about this, for the last 5 years the share price has generally traded between £2 and £2.50.

This isn't a fire sale, talk about bids around £1.80 to £2 are ridiculous, if somebody wants to take this over they should have to pay up for it, in any normal scenario bids below £3 to £3.50 would be rejected as being opportunistic yet here we are talking about offers at £2.30 and below.

Any deal below £3 is a disappointing outcome.

If they got £2.70 rather than £2.20, yes.

They don't need to run another process, you could get a takeover bid any time. Everyone knows the business is for sale.

Whilst the share price is trading between £1.40 and £1.80 it's a sitting duck.

I think any offer will need to be over £2.50 or I don't see a deal being done. Share prices across the board are a lot lower at the moment, it doesn't mean you give the business away. Even £2.50 isn't a good deal for most shareholders.

If no deal is done the business needs a reset with fresh leadership, that could add 20 - 30% to the share price quite quickly.

Share price was higher than £1.80 last week, £1.80 is not buying this.

If £2.70 is out of the question what do you think buys it ??

In the past I would have said a buyback goes some way to creating value however a lot of other companies are doing them and they don't seem to be working. Never seen so many share buybacks as I do now.

In simple terms what would happen to the share price if:

Spire did a sale and leaseback itself, paid off all debt and announced a share buyback, bulk of receipts from property disposals sat in accounts earning interest for a year or two. I appreciate rent would have to be paid however the business would have a huge cash pile so the difference between interest and rent wouldn't be huge.

I don't want a special dividend etc as once that money has gone, it's gone.

If the scenario above played out would the share price be way higher than £2 ?

With the share price where it is now do we even want a takeover ?

With better leadership the share price could double from here within 12 - 18 months, lowball offers seem like a total waste of an opportunity. A £2.30 offer was the number mentioned, that is a poor offer, the share price has regularly been around that level during the last five years. The business isn't distressed, it's more depressed. Previous offers were £2.50 to £3 and in reality the business should be way more valuable now.

This whole process has become a bit of a joke, it would almost be better if all takeover talks were abandoned and the business had a total reset with new leadership and a refreshed outlook.

Final post from me today, can someone please tell me why / how Justin Ash is still CEO ??

Share price performance is shocking and many outsiders claim Spire is badly run / could be improved very easily.

Shares now 20% cheaper, in theory that should attract more takeover interest, not less.

This kind of theory doesn't always make me money though.

No issues with you shorting, we are all here to make money and at least your response seems realistic / genuine. If you had said you were short from £1.90 I would have ignored you.

Shorting from those levels with takeover interest seems a bit bizarre, do you have guaranteed stops in place ?

Bigdaddypump,

You say you are shorting, when did you go short ?

Some very simple figures:

Market cap 600 million

Ebitda 268 million

Property assets £1.4 billion plus

Net bank debt 332 million

There is still plenty to develop here, at the current valuation something has got to happen. It cannot stagnate at these levels.

Added just now at £1.50, I first purchased in late 2025 at £1.65 so have gone from a decent profit to a loss however I have been afforded the opportunity to buy more.

Sensible or stupid, we will wait at see however at £1.50p the risk / reward looks very good.