RE: Nice article -open pit Phulbari5 Apr 2019 19:30
April 5, 2019
Energy Security For Achieving National Vision
Saleque Sufi
Bangladesh needs achieving sustainable energy security (seamless supply of quality power and energy on uninterruptible basis at affordable cost for all citizen) for achieving the national vision of developing and developed economy status. SDG7 is affordable , reliable , sustainable and clean energy supply to all citizen. Government information states of 20,854 MW installed capacity of power generation including 2800 MW off grid captive power generation and 1160 MW import from India. For various reasons ranging from fuel supply deficit to power transmission & distribution constraints more than 11628 MW power generation could not be achieved yet. Government information also states of 92% of the population having access to power. There are claims that by the end of 2019 the entire population of Bangladesh would have access to power. However, the surplus generation capacity could not ensure uninterrupted supply of quality power to all users. Load shedding is experienced in isolated areas, still industrial consumers are concerned about poor quality of power. The energy supply is not yet affordable for all, still to compensate for the cost arising out of expensive LNG import price increase of power and energy is in the offing. The supply is yet to become reliable as the quality is still poor. The supply is also not sustainable. We are not sure that Bangladesh can have more than marginal contributions from renewable energy (clean fuel) in the foreseeable future.
Generation is only one segment of power value chain. If transmission, distribution and supply to users do not evenly match, significant generation capacity remains unutilized. Every developed country has about 25-30% spinning reserve for meeting contingencies. But a developing country like Bangladesh cannot afford to have over 40% spinning reserve. Bangladesh has to pay the price of achieving installed capacity. Bangladesh needs fuel for achieving up to the maximum possible capacity, evacuation facility and market to absorb.
Fuel Mix:
Choosing appropriate fuel mix is a major challenge for Bangladesh. Until 2009 own natural gas exclusively dominated fuel mix contributing above 90% for power generation. Natural gas is also raw material for Urea fertilizer. In gas franchise area gas also is used as fuel for industrial, commercial and domestic use. Bangladesh was not very careful about perspective planning in natural gas sector development and economic utilization of the precious resource. From 2000 demand of natural gas increased in geometric progression. Every 1% GDP growth created 1.5% power demand growth. So for 6.5% -7% power demand alone grew by 10%. But keeping pace with that gas exploration and development could not be done for poor over all energy sector management. From 2000-2018 only about 2Tcf new gas reserve could be added to national reserve mainly through efforts of capacity constrained BAPEX. Bu