Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"To date, the property of the suspected oligarch, as well as legal entities associated with him, has been seized. In particular, shares of his enterprises worth hundreds of millions of hryvnias: corporate rights companies". I wonder if FXPO shares are already in the hands of the Ukrainian government.
Yeah. I guess the main risk is that he has to sell some to pay the fines and for his freedom. No nationalisation risk, I guess.
This stock is so illiquid that it was an easy job to destroy all the short-sellers. I wonder if there are any left to get cornered after Christmas.
My guess is the big move will happen when Q4 results are disclosed (and then Q1 2023 if the war still lingers). Until that we are kept in the dark on what is really going on.
It is an opportunity. The good thing about value stocks is that one can collect dividends for many years and not care about the price. I've bought a lot on this weakness, and I am happy to keep it until the pendulum moves to the other extreme. It is a pity that my limit per stock has already been reached on this one. :)
Spent another 20k @9.55 at the opening. I hope we have already seen the bottom in junior gold miners. Anyway, once my portfolio is built, I'll not be checking prices until June-July next year, haha.
What made you think today could be a placing day?
Well, management owes 7% of the company. I am pretty sure Harry did whatever was possible.
Mate, lots of ppl moved you to the filters I bet because of spamming. Let's respect each other.
I see a lot of videos with macro/sector portfolio managers saying that soon it will be a one in a lifetime opportunity to start buying cheap gold mining stocks, but now it is too early.
I guess "too early" and "too late" are not that far apart. :)
I have no idea, but logically, mcap is 30 mln, and cost of financing is 320 mln. As a rational investor, what equity share would you claim?
Like Soros said, "invest first, investigate later". So I invested some, now I investigate. I do not care if share goes up or down in the short term, so I am filtering out all the "ramper-deramper" commenting guys. I want to know the truth, and I am talking only to people who are ready to substantiate their opinions.
Personally, I do not like "details will be provided on signing of definitive documentation" and "convertible subordinated loans". This sounds better though, "These will be repayable or convertible at KEFI's election". I was wondering if KEFI could avoid 10:1 dilution in the future.
BTW, I could not find a new presentation at the website: "KEFI (AIM: KEFI), the gold exploration and development company with projects in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, announces that a new investor presentation has been uploaded to the Company's website: https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com"
One possible misconception I observed here is the belief that once the finance plan for Tulu Kapi is signed, all problems are solved. No one questioned the costs of financing.
We all know how difficult it is to get financing in the current climate, with the Fed tightening and capital withdrawing from the private markets. So I would ask myself - who is going to commit US$320mln, without firm guarantees, with a risk of the situation in Ethiopia deteriorating prior to 2025? And, if they commit, what would the terms be? If I committed money in the current environment with such a risk, I would make sure I would get 80-90% of all future profits from the mine. So, in the ideal world, if the documents are finally signed, what would be the rate of interest? And, since KEFI management is already committed via recent RNS, would not the lenders get an extra leverage to push for the last minute lending cost increase? Having some experience in tough negotiations, I think that could perfectly explain the delay.
Just a food for thought, don't throw stones :)
There must be a trust issue. How do you know they are not overoptimistic for whatever serves their ends? I have seen a few disinformation campaigns in the past.
Anyway, I made a small allocation here, but I am reluctant to add more to a company with headquarters in Cyprus.
Honest answer, paying dividends now would be reckless. FXPO needs to survive until the end of the war (summer 2023?), with both production and logistics under the the question.
Bought a bit today, thanks to PortfolioPower for the recommendation on HUM board. Any other recommendations for small gold miners on LSE (under 50M cap) with high leverage to gold price and a sound debt situation? Thanks.
No risk. Think about it. They siezed oil producer, oil refiner, engine and track makers, and industrial company making electric equipment. Company owners (Kolomoisky) are possibly associated with Russian interest and could block critical military and energy supply. Now, what about Ferrexpo? It produces iron pellets which are exported (no iron production in Ukraine). The last thing Ukraine military need are pellets. What's the point of siezing FXPO? Lastly, the siezure is done according to martial emergency law: "Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the government will either return the holdings after martial law ends or offer compensation." No expropriation, just alligning interests to the country military needs.
If this bear market rally continues (despite the rumour of lifting zero-covid policy was unconfirmed) and Ukraine takes Kherson then I can easily see the price go back to 145-155. If Putin suddenly "disappears", then it would reach 200. If nothing of those happens and iron ore remains put, then back below 100. What are your projections?