Member Info for Dinkydoo

If the NGN strength continues and FX moves from losses to gains. If FX Reverses Into Gains ?

Is that any good if maintained.??????

What the Market Misses

•BEFORE (2023):

•- Heavy debt burden

•- Loss-making divisions (Germany)

•- Market panic after profit warning

•AFTER (2025):

•- £275–290m debt paid down

•- Profitable core (ALSA, WeDriveU)

•- Transparent losses, provisions booked

•- FCF strength proven

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Valuation Forecast: Asymmetric Upside

•Bear Case: £300m equity → 48.7p/share (+%

•Base Case: £1.17bn equity → 190p/share (+%%%

•Bull Case: £1.9bn equity → 308p/share (+%%%

•At 26.8p today, Mobico trades below even the Bear Case value.

The Hook: Why Now?

•• Mobico is priced like it's broken — but FY24 shows it’s being fixed

•• Cash is coming in, debt is going down, and growth is happening

•• The turnaround has begun — but the market hasn’t noticed

•→ This is a mispricing. And mispricings don’t last.

Have a look at this

Mobico Investment Pitch: Misunderstood and Undervalued

April 2025

Valuation Mismatch: The Market is Mispricing Mobico

•• Mobico trades at ~0.4× book vs. peers at 1.2–2.0×

•• EV/EBITDA at ~4.5× post-sale vs. sector at 6–9×

•• Market cap (~£214m) nearly equals 2024 FCF (~£210m)

•• Valuation implies no future earnings or growth

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Reframing the Narrative: From Legacy Drag to Lean Operator

•• Legacy risks (German Rail) provisioned and contained

•• ALSA and WeDriveU growing fast with strong margins

•• £275–290m debt reduction in progress

•• FY24 free cash flow: £210m — proving business model resilience

What the Market Misses

•BEFORE (2023):

•- Heavy debt burden

•- Loss-making divisions (Germany)

•- Market panic after profit warning

•AFTER (2025):

•- £275–290m debt paid down

•- Profitable core (ALSA, WeDriveU)

•- Transparent losses, provisions booked

•- FCF strength proven

Loading…

Valuation Forecast: Asymmetric Upside

•Bear Case: £300m equity → 48.7p/share (+40%)

•Base Case: £1.17bn equity → 190p/share (+445%)

•Bull Case: £1.9bn equity → 308p/share (+785%)

•At 34.8p today, Mobico trades below even the Bear Case value.

May 1, 2025, the most recent publicly disclosed insider purchase for Mobico Group plc (LSE: MCG) is by Francisco Iglesias, the Group Chief Operating Officer and CEO of ALSA. He acquired 246,750 ordinary shares, signaling strong confidence in the company’s future

As of May 1, 2025, the most recent publicly disclosed insider purchases for Mobico Group plc (LSE: MCG) occurred in late April 2024. There have been no new insider transactions reported this week.

Recent Insider Purchases:

• Simon Callander (Group General Counsel & Company Secretary)

• Date: April 26, 2024

• Shares Acquired: 93,467

• Purchase Price: £0.53 per share

• Total Investment: £49,752

• James Stamp (Chief Financial Officer)

• Date: April 22, 2024

• Shares Acquired: 1,925

• Purchase Price: £0.57 per share

• Total Investment: £1,096

• Jose Garat Perez (Chief Executive Officer)

• Date: April 22, 2024

• Shares Acquired: 15,601

• Purchase Price: £0.57 per share

• Total Investment: £8,885

Mobico Investment Pitch: Misunderstood and Undervalued

April 2025

Valuation Mismatch: The Market is Mispricing Mobico

•• Mobico trades at ~0.4× book vs. peers at 1.2–2.0×

•• EV/EBITDA at ~4.5× post-sale vs. sector at 6–9×

•• Market cap (~£214m) nearly equals 2024 FCF (~£210m)

•• Valuation implies no future earnings or growth

Loading…

Reframing the Narrative: From Legacy Drag to Lean Operator

•• Legacy risks (German Rail) provisioned and contained

•• ALSA and WeDriveU growing fast with strong margins

•• £275–290m debt reduction in progress

•• FY24 free cash flow: £210m — proving business model resilience

What the Market Misses

•BEFORE (2023):

•- Heavy debt burden

•- Loss-making divisions (Germany)

•- Market panic after profit warning

•AFTER (2025):

•- £275–290m debt paid down

•- Profitable core (ALSA, WeDriveU)

•- Transparent losses, provisions booked

•- FCF strength proven

Loading…

Valuation Forecast: Asymmetric Upside

•Bear Case: £300m equity → 48.7p/share (+40%)

•Base Case: £1.17bn equity → 190p/share (+445%)

•Bull Case: £1.9bn equity → 308p/share (+785%)

•At 34.8p today, Mobico trades below even the Bear Case value.

The Hook: Why Now?

•• Mobico is priced like it's broken — but FY24 shows it’s being fixed

•• Cash is coming in, debt is going down, and growth is happening

•• The turnaround has begun — but the market hasn’t noticed

Mobico Share Price Target Summary

Based on different recovery scenarios, the estimated price targets for Mobico Group PLC. These reflect a range of outcomes from minimal improvement to a full turnaround over the next 12–24 months.

Price Target Scenarios

Scenario

Equity Value Estimate

Price Target

Bear Case

£300 million

48.7p

Base Case

£1.17 billion

190p

Bull Case

£1.9 billion

308p

At the current share price (~34.8p), Mobico is trading below even the bear case value. This suggests deep value potential if execution improves.

Mobico Investment Thesis (April 2025)

1. Deep Value: Trading at just ~0.4× book and ~4.5× EV/EBITDA, Mobico is priced for distress despite improving fundamentals.

2. Deleveraging Catalyst: Sale of North America School Bus will reduce net debt by £275–290m, significantly improving balance sheet health.

3. Core Strength: ALSA (Spain) and WeDriveU (US) continue to grow, delivering record profits and strong cash flows.

4. One Known Risk: German rail contracts remain loss-making but are now fully provisioned and under renegotiation.

5. Re-rating Potential: If FY25 guidance confirms operational recovery, the stock could re-rate 2–4× from current levels (price target range: 70–140p+).

I hope will be 140 not financial advice