Upside9 Dec 2022 13:58
MOU 1 - drilled to edge of the structure, encountered 22m of net pay (including new shallow zone) - 2.8km area - 12BCF + shallow 21BCF
MOU 2 - Appraisal 6km away from MOU 1 -drilling to penetrate 6 target sands - amplitude anolomy, AVO & Bright spots - mapped to 34km2 - MOU 2 structure 14km2, SWEET SPOT.
Mou 4 page sept 21 presentation 35km structure
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/19204501/PRD-Proactive-Presentation-Final-09.09.2021-1.pdf
MOU 2 - 168m gross gas column - 21m net VS 72m gross MOU 1 / 22m net
i note the comment on the presentation
"conservative estimate on net pay"
why has 21m been used for MOU 2, if the gas column is over double compared to MOU 1, with the location i assume picked due to potential thicker sands with 1 in 10 chance of hitting 1000ft gas column, assume this if hit would be P10 figure
on page 9 of sept 21 presentation, the cross section shows deeper target A, Is this target included with the resource figures quoted or is it additional if it comes in ?
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/29105657/Webinar-Presentation-website-Version-28092021-Corrections-15.40pm.pdf
P50 135BCF (46% CPR report numbers)
Does the 46% represent the COS ? so is the 135BCF risked figure based only on 21m net find in MOU2
page 4 of presentation
267p CNG 135BCF $8 NET BACK, is this based on $16 per mcfgpd , are costs $8 per mcfgpd ? i think i read in the CPR it was $3 per mcfgpd ?
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/09/Proactive-Presentation-Final-8-September-2022-LATEST.pdf
CPR assumes 66% recovery, but the recovery in nearby R Basin is 90%, on the potential flow rates, I assume this 66% is on the conservative side
flow rates
i note comments of 1.15mmscfd - 1.36mmscfd
if MOU 1 IS 22m net and MOU 2 comes in @ 22m net , total 44m this works out to 50 - 60mmscfd, yet the latest RNS states profile targeting 150 - 250mmcfgpd, please can you advise where the sharp increase has been calculated from as this would equate to 110m - 217m net pay
To my untrained eye there seems to be a lot of under playing with upside - recovery 66% - 90%, net pay MOU2, flow rates 50-60mmscfd as stated above for MOU 1 & 2 also stated in proactive presentation in Sept "we feel this time next year we can get to 50mmscfd" to now 150 - 250mmcfgd as per recent RNS, whcih would then make the 267p for 135BCF look a tad under estimated ?
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