Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tibbs, Sami got the Pharoah mine started based on his expertise related to the Geology and he built the initial team to be led by his son Josef who wasn't a miner and the team including Trevor Schultz did an excellent job in setting up the mine and many of the initial team I knew quite well and they were a very experienced bunch of mine start up people.
This is what they were the start up team and to be honest they did an excellent job in the early years and Harry Michaels joined them from Geita a then young General Manager who I am sure would if not for his untimely death under the guidance of Trevor Schultz gone on to be CEO.
This is when in my opinion things started to go off track because Josef had to go out to the market to find alternative people and the rest is history.
Don't disagree about uncle Youssef who was as I see it very much a political appointment who may well have been involved in the very early years with Sami to guide the way through the political complexities. Sami was away from Egypt for many years building his reputation in the Australian mining sector.
Paul,
Yes I believe Centamin are basically opening up/expanding the open pit to enable additional ore resources to be exposed and mined rather than rely on just a few areas available to mine as the pit gets deeper and tighter.
I would also suggest the expanded area is already contributing ounces and the additional flexibility to enable and provide some confidence to achieve the ounces required this year.
Mr T I would hope that Centamin have written into the contract that they have first refusal of the Capital Fleet at the end of the 4 year contract and would also hope that Mantrac had a maintenance contract for the fleet with all important accurate records to ensure the equipment is in good order.
Paul, Firstly I retired back in 2008 albeit I did some consulting for a number of years and Burkina wasn't/isn't a country that I have a great deal of experience and I have no first hand knowledge of Martin Horgan. I have however spoken to people who have met him and or been involved with mines that he has had some degrees of responsibility and I am told that he is extremely knowledgeable on all aspects of mining and that he is a straight talker and well respected.
What would I have done to sort out the possible collapse of the North Wall, to be honest I have no idea because it depends on how bad the fissure is but first priority is to stay very clear and get in the experts and I am not an expert.
This stopped the mining of the North Wall and from what I understand or remember this was the area that was necessary to meet production estimates as the grades were predicted to be 2 grammes per ounce.
There was at that time very little that could then be done to maintain production because there was limited alternative ore resources that could be mined.
As far as I am concerned I would have liked the mining contract reduced to less than 4 years but what I hear and read is that the 4 years is described as a blitz or fast track so guess 4 years was deemed as being the optimum.
Don't get me wrong I would rather that this waste contract didn't have to happen and without walking the mine with the guys on the ground it is really difficult to fully understand why they got into this situation.
I will give you my opinion because looking from the outside it seems as though the waste removal is really like opening up a new mine where there is no free dig.
I am going to try now to explain what the mine will look like before mining starts. Imagine a barren landscape with out crops of rock. Free dig means the earth has gold fines invisible to the human eye weathered through the centuries known as oxides. Easy and relatively cheap to process through simple leach pad technology.
No free dig means the need to clear the top levels of waste to get down to ore bearing material hopefully oxides but the deeper you go less likely it is weathered so start getting into transitional and sulfides which will be processed through the plant.
This waste removal will involve drill and blasting, construction of haul roads, laying down dump sites, as I say like opening up a new mine or pit with little or no return but necessary to get to the ore bearing material so in my view the quicker the better.
Kees Decker is a well respected analyst but even with all of his experience without spending time on the mine much of what he is saying is based on what he is able to glean from reports not first hand knowledge that he can gather from questions and looking at the operation.
I hope my maybe over simplistic response helps answer the questions that you asked of Cowichan.
My thought is that the waste contract was decided as being the way to go before the earth moved and was rubber stamped and maybe even accelerated at that time because it was obvious that they had to mine low grade ore from one or two faces rather than having the flexibility of numerous faces which will be the case once the pit is opened up.
Also believe 4 year contract was how long it was calculated to move the waste material to get them to a flexible mining project.
Yes Capital are making good profits but at the same time they will have a 4 year old fleet of equipment when the contract finishes and unless the fleet is sold on or moved to another contract there will be costs involved.
Cowichan lets now move away from the mining aspect and talk about leasing a fleet of 150 ton mining trucks, 200 tonne Shovels etc which you give the impression is simple, so there is the cost of finance over the 4 years plus additional time getting the fleet back to the leasing company premises, the cost of transport too and from the company who has such a fleet in stock and is prepared to take the political risk into account when doing a cross border lease.
Might work in places like Canada, USA and maybe Australia but doubtful over 4 years and will certainly an expensive option.
Cowichan I am not misinterpreting anything I have heard Horgan's response to questions answered about how the tender was handled, accusations of bribes and why Centamin awarded the contract to Capital. He can't say more than he already has. Yes Centamin could do all of the things you say BUT you can't write off the cost of the earth moving fleet over four years and if they did guess who would be complaining that the waste fleet isn't viable.
Sorry if you feel I am foolish guess the new Centamin team are also far more foolish than yourself who obviously knows best.
I have been on many mines where they are owner miners several of those have been Majors and the inefficiencies have been such that after several years of struggling to perform they have turned to contract miners.
Contract Miners have to work to a cost per tonne and therefore believe me they are conscious of every detail and are the most demanding customers that I have ever dealt with.
Majors even junior mining companies have been known to employ Mining Engineers who struggle to understand the fundamentals of moving muck. Don't appreciate the nuances of the equipment and design haul roads and grades that equipment will struggle to climb. I have even seen hoppers designed to take the ore into a crusher that is too small to take the load of the truck that was eventually chosen to handle the ore (cart before the horse). I have had Motor Graders left off the equipment list and when asked why, they hadn't even thought about haul road maintenance, Front Shovel Loaders when the benches had been designed to take Excavators backhoe config. and the list goes on and don't get me talking about the waste dump area being badly managed.
I have also been on mines where they have gone from contract mining to owner mining but in all cases they have partnered with the local equipment dealer to operate a Maintenance and Repair Contract, so you might say still involves a contractor. I am told that one of those mines has actually reverted back to contract miner again because it was difficult to justify a replacement fleet as the life of mine couldn't justify the capital expenditure.
I however bow to your experience and knowledge Cowichan but would suggest "A little bit of knowledge can be dangerous".
Wow what a load of ranting by experts who have never visited a large mine let alone worked in or around a mine.
Was the waste contract justified and why was a contract awarded to Capital or any other contractor and not done in house?
It is always cheaper to owner mine against contractor mining very interesting please can someone explain to me why so many contract miners exist around the world?
Goldgnome I will let you have your say because I can almost feel your need to respond from here.
No surprises, pretty much as expected so next date will be 1st quarter results and this is when we will need to take some deep breaths. Reduced ounces due to plant maintenance hence the split 45:55 and additional impact capex split the reverse at 55:45.
Extraordinary costs will still be applicable due to the continuation of the waste contract.
Extraction continues through maintenance so ROM will be full and plant full on once maintenance is complete so second quarter will hopefully be back on track but as I say first quarter I am sure will hit SP.
Keeping the faith will be difficult when the next set of figure come out.
Tibbs with respect there is no easy water, Sukari had to build a desalination plant and a pipeline to the coast which is a significant distance and expense.
Aton Resources as far as I am aware are still going and are still working at Abu Marawat and a few other areas.
Tibbs,
I have read somewhere on this forum mention of another area being preferred over Sukari but this isn't something that was ever mentioned to me in discussion with the early pioneers of Pharoah Gold and we were talking to them from the late nineties early noughties.
Hopefully if there is truth in the rumour Sami will have had some input into the go for new concession areas albeit if there is no access to significant water resources no idea how it will work.
Cowichan Interesting comment regarding strip ratio suggest you remove the waste removal impact in 22,23 and 24 and the strip ratio definitely reduces. So if average is 8:1 then as I say remove the first 3 years and logic says strip ratio will (should or GOT TO if Horgan wants to stay in a job) reduce.
Excellent news also is the higher grades years 25 through 29 in the open pit (hopefully justifying the waste contract).
Grades lower than 22 for 23 and 24 but increased ore both above and below ground hence forecast of marginal improvement in ounces.
Somnamna interesting but there will be many KPI's before the ultimate "First Gold pour" somewhere on the new concession. The new concession really is what it says new and it will take a considerable time before we see anything other than words such as promising geology, drilling results etc.
My number one KPI would be get the waste contract done and dusted months earlier than original 4 year contract.
Absolute priority is to reduce strip ratio to 6 or below then we will see realistic cost base..
Paul, Open pit mining is cheaper than going underground but yes there will be a cut off point where the cost of mining outstrips profit. This then depends on the mineral being mined and the value of the mineral. So gold provides more depth and where the cut off is depends on the cost of mining. Super pit is like looking into the Grande Canyon. Centamin still has a long way to go.
Tibbs I don't agree Horgan answered the questions asked by Cowichan and these were all contentious questions and he also answered my question relating to the waste contract both as part of the presentation and in the Q&A in far more detail than I was expecting. OK sure there will be questions unanswered due to being censored. What were they we will never know?