Member Info for ChrisSzabo

He/Mike Morris must have sold to a Broker/Third Party which is releasing the shares piece by piece - he sold more since August than have changed hand on the exchange. So this will depress the share price going forward still. If he's a seller into the industry upturn with all his insight into the market cycle, he will probably sell more over time for reasons unrelated to underlying results.

Given this you really wonder why the company is not taking the opportunity to buy back shares which would be the perfect opportunity. I'll top up somewhat if it goes lower.

Hi Stuart, likewise unhappy about the recent drop. Where did you read that the California contract is only one year left? When I read the text, I see exit clauses, but the contract continues until 2027. Please help (its a massive document) if I miss the right page.

Fingers crossed for a good TU of Nexus in October. Once we have at least a clean Half Year with positive Net Income, we should see the price move.

Could not agree more. Watched yesterday's presentation from Van Elle & whilst they had their share of problems for sure, the whole communication is done better in my view. Mark Cutler participates in the ups/downs of c3 Mio. stocks directly or via Options. That is skin in the game.

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed for HY2 that we finally clear the clouds and have a full year of positive EBIT/EBITDA so that the Valuation metrics dont look so crazy or nonexistant.

Hi Bobby, the 319k are Registered Users, BrightLife Kids (Not Kooth) and Soluna/Kooth together till May 25. The cumul figure for Kooth only is given as 117k users that have 'accessed' the systems. Now thats not yet active users but it also doesnt take that much to make them active users (see above).

If you assume a start in Jan 24 (go life of Soluna platform) and a constant monthly growth rate, the cumulated growth till May 25 (117k) vs till Feb 25 (75k) seems to suggest a 13,5% month on month growth rate of active users. If that remains, they would hit their cumulated user threshold of 366k active users by Q1/26 and reach their max contractual bracket before year-end (thats additional 10m $ p.a. extra over the bottom rate). As presumably their development work has been mostly done, that mean a truly phenomenal financial result.

More likely, growth will trend down and they will get higher quarterly payments later in 2026. But the contractual metrics (cumulative active users, which includes anyone logged on for at least an hour, provides feedback or uses the search function= are such that with 6-7 Mio Californians in the target age group, the threshold does not seem unrealistic.

My best guess is that the the overhang of sellers is cleared and that the absence of bad news from the California budgets on May 14th makes people buy into what would obviously be a multi-bagger if the US expansion doesn't get derailed by the US culture wars. There's been positive mentions on California contract on May 29th. The pitch on Vermont has been commented on earlier in May.

Well, whilst I still do think that this company offers great opportunities, this HY 1 is disappointing. Tamdown has had decent sales & GP growth of c8% but manages to go down in OP due to cost increase. And group costs before one offs increase by annualized 670k. That's not the way forward if you want to profit from industry consolidation.

On Coleman it's too early to tell though price & one offs are high compared to Nexus valuations. Good, but no surprise that they've been able to buy this by squeezing working capital. But Net current assets are still down c5 mio over financial year-end 2024...

Prior Coleman, the easy alternative would had been to buy back most of the stock & remove double management between Tamdown & Nexus. If management can't improve profitability on 8% Revenue & GP growth, maybe another builder (Van Elle?) should acquire them & create the scale/efficiency needed. Either needs to happen to realize the value hidden within this gem. Sad that management doesn't seem to see this opportunity & has only negligible share ownership.

;-) Spot on, Shychap

But it was the Chairman that discontinued the share-based incentive after the spin-off.

I kinda don't blame the CEO & CFO who've been in the 2nd row of the company for the past 9 (CEO) and 35 (CFO) years. But the chair's from 3I & should know how to set this up following such a dramatic reduction in share count. I really do hope that Peter G. will put his weight behind this...

As of the AGM invitation, the bord then held 0,9% of stocks...so that's ca 28k/board member. That's a joke in terms of having skin in the game. I'd be very surprised if Peter Gyllenhammar as now dominant shareholder will put up with a board that has such a low stake. Hopefully we see some signals after the AGM

Https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/index.php/article/buy-nexus-infrastructure-for-its-big-recovery-potential

Couldnt agree more...

I've not been able to get an order filled...neither "at market" nor above the offer price...

Agree on the benefit of the acquisition. Management likely was well aware that they either make such an acquisition or face pressure to redistribute the spare cash & take out the double mgmt layer of Tamdown & Nexus.

What concerns me more is that their HY2 revenue was still -18% of over 23 HY2 (admittedly with c3 months of Ilke homes revenues), far from a great rebound. Whilst their DSO will normalize eventually (I think) and significantly increase their cash position, they either need to grow more or take out significantly more cost than they have so far...

Also surprised to see that Peter Gyllenhammar has not yet decided to cross the 30% and make a bid. Would be good time now that the Trading Update has failed to raise the price.

Dear Florence, thank you for sharing! There's a lot going on lately with ownership changes. Also I wonder who triggered the disclosure on the chairs 2020 board engagement.

I just hope they will issue a Trading Update early in October & the stock rises. It would be a shame if there's a takeover attempt at a lowball price by Peter Gyllenhammar.

To me it seems that they pushed their order book rebound with attractive payment terms, given their available cash. At pre-Covid DSO/DPO (that their peer VanElle has managed to keep...), Nexus would have a negative EV. I dont see why they should't return to old Tamdown profit levels (with now 80% less shares).

I read today that there's been 1,926,505 (!) shared changing hands - with the stock price moving, but not by that much.

Does anyone have an idea what's behind that (typo, institutional sales outside the exchange etc)?

Fully agree, Steve

Given population stats & the reality of supply/demand, Persimmon (and the other UK builders) are in many great years to come

Agreed. Normally I would expect Peter Gyllenhammar to try & establish negative control with a higher shareholding.

And I'm surprised the Management Team hasn't attempted to take this company private (again) at this low valuation. Maybe that's in the cards once Mike Morris leaves the board August 15th. In any way, this will be an interesting year for the company.