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First stage is more data in coming months.

I would argue you don’t want a bid approach for a year to create maximum value.

Anyway,any bid is in the hands of Vulpes and Redmile. Someone might bid and they at the board level can decline an offer. Doesn’t need to be announced.

Yes. It’s all about protecting those $20bn+ a year revenues that BMY and MRK currently generate .

They need to act relatively quickly as the patents start to run out in 3 years.

Almost every Fund Manager takes a big part of August off. Anyway worth remembering Fund Managers won’t just “buy” on the morning of an announcement of good data. These days it has to be run past the Fund’s investment committee which will be weekly at best having already done serious due diligence.

SCLP have been doing lots of presentations to the investment community in the US over the last few months to give them the “story”.

If good data drops it enables them to be able to react relatively quickly and build a position in the company.

Having said that it looks like at least one fund has decided to start buying ahead of the data….

Almost every Fund Manager takes a big part of August off. Anyway worth remembering Fund Managers won’t just “buy” on the morning of an announcement of good data. These days it has to be run past the Fund’s investment committee which will be weekly at best having already done serious due diligence.

SCLP have been doing lots of presentations to the investment community in the US over the last few months to give them the “story”.

If good data drops it enables them to be able to react relatively quickly and build a position in the company.

Having said that at least one fund has decided to start buying ahead of the data.

Perspective…

The only reason to release data would be if it is exceptional and possibly already met the end target.

Thing is the 2 weeks around the August Bank Holiday is like releasing information around Xmas- people are away on their holidays.

From a PR prospective you avoid announcing things, if you can, until the first full week in September.

It would be wrong to say Scancell is not risky. It is,after all, a biotech on the AIM Market.

Ultimately you have to be prepared to lose all your money.

Do I see it as good risk reward due to the multi-platforms it has and the data so far? The answer is absolutely yes.

I remember back to British Biotech in the late 90’s when it got pushed to a £2bn market cap prior to clinical trials.

Fun days. Flemings were pushing it big time in the US.

Imo SCLP has the science but not the market recognition….well not yet. Q4 could be very interesting.

I’m actually for a bit of a tree shake. Get rid of weak shareholders and hopefully get them into long term investors hands.

Slow and steady is best.

Watching a kettle doesn’t make it boil.

We aren’t expecting data for while yet. Most of us are invested for the long term so not too fussed about “managing” the newsflow.

More importantly the word is spreading amongst oncologists. Biotech/ Healthcare funds speak to these people before making investment decisions.

A year ago few oncologists knew of Scancell. Now many do- especially in the UK.

They would also be keen to accelerate the program in an attempt to avert the patent cliff. I personally think they will bid outright as SCLP have platform technology-multiple applications.

Worth noting from the Canaccord note that the $8.5m EDITDA figure is based on $60/kg. Current price is approx. $66 and according to SQM (who are really the price setters) have said they expect stable prices this year.

As long as you can be patient you will be rewarded. Completely under the radar.

Doesn’t seem too much stock around at the moment which bodes well if we have continued positive data and/or another licensing deal.

Comment below I posted on ADVFN. 2nd largest producer Cosayach had the extension of a large mine rejected earlier this week…

A little more digging on the Cosayach Negreiros mine.

At best production will start to tail off next year. I think it currently produces around 2000t a year so over 5% of world production.

The article below confirms they will have to start laying people off in the coming months.

This is the 3rd time in 3 years the application has been rejected. They can appeal and resubmit but you would think it will take at least another 6 months to reverse any decision.

You would think in current situation Cosayach will hold back some iodine sales to create a buffer in case they lose 1/3rd of their production next year.

Spot iodine price fell around 9% from its peak but has rallied 2% in last few days.

I think this is very significant news and could well keep the Iodine price higher for longer.

“However, it again suffered the anticipated term of its processing, again due to the consideration of the authority that there was a lack of essential information to evaluate the possible impacts of the activities, for example, on human groups belonging to indigenous peoples indicated in the area of influence. In a statement issued this Wednesday by Cosayach, the mining company lamented "the decision of the government authority that recommends rejecting" its initiative, and expressed its concern that "an administrative decision jeopardises the employment of more than a thousand workers." In it, they affirm that during the following months, the Negreiros task "will exhaust the mine area authorised environmentally for the extraction of caliche so operations will cease and contracted personnel must be demobilised."

FastMarkets try and track it but mainly you have to follow what SQM say.

Price is in late 60’s and fairly stable although most analysts expect it to average $60 for 2024.

It would become a combination therapy resetting patent life.

They have all the tools to do that but SCLP had indicated that the trials were going well and they would be presenting papers this week.

Quite a few people will have bought on speculation and for once were right to.

It’s only showing less than 1m shares traded which is small although probably some delayed trades to go through.