Member Info for Callasjunkie

Alaric, do you remember posting this:

"RE: media corruption in Nigeria 08 May 2019 10:45
oh well thanks for confirming that, Afa, it wasn't clear initially that the source of this story was one of your corrupt ones. remember in the EU Journal survey, a simply staggering 75% of Nigerian journalists interviewed admitted to being on the take! So if 24.9% were too embarrassed to admit, that leaves about half a dozen journos in Nigeria who are straight. Makes Fleet St. look positively angelic."

So you've had a Damascene experience ( I know you like religious themes) and a brief article from unnamed sources, by an undisclosed author, becomes the holy grail.

Mclean, I think you'll find that that was BP in the Gulf of Mexico. I also think you'll find that neither BP or Shell have lost 99% of their peak value. In fact, Shell seem to have done rather well in selling on Nigerian on-shore interests. Nod,nod,wink,wink.

Lost 99% since 2011. Just a minor detail, Alaric?

PC01, I hate to do this to you (to coin a phrase), but the wonder share has lost 99% of it's value since it's peak in 2011. There only so many times you can bounce a dead cat.

Alaric, I know you like biblical themes....so it seems someone parted the Red Sea at 16.16 today.

Wrong again, Mclean. Eroton does have to say something. Having applied officially for a licence to build a new pipeline, it has to give that application plan publicity in the Nigerian media in order to give opportunity for objections. If none, and none on the DPR side, the Minister should approve. I can find nothing in the public domain regarding approval. So I have to assume that approval is outstanding. Without it, physical development can't even begin.
The Eroton MD now states that a new pipeline/FSO is only a "possibility".
As yourself and Alaric seem to be so well informed, I thought you might have the answers....I'm disappointed yet again

Given the horrendous losses in the Nembe Creek Trunk Line collander, 20-30 % of production, we can probably all agree that Eroton's salvation may depend on finding an economically viable alternative evacuation route. Mclean turned up a formal application by Eroton for an alternative pipeline plan submitted to the DPR in 2018. As I believe this is the most important issue facing Eroton, I ask a simple question. Has the Minister granted the new pipeline licence? Trying to avoid the issue with irrelevancies is not going to make this question go away and will not impress any except Pavlov's Dogs.
It's also interesting that Eroton's website emphasises their strategy of new well drilling and makovers but says absolutely nothing about a new pipeline/FSO. How very odd.

I'm afraid that your response is so incoherent that I can't figure out what you are saying. But as to a straight 'yes' or 'no' as to whether the Nigerian Oil Minister has given his approval to the licence application, that still seems to be missing.

Mclean, is that a very roundabout way of saying you don't have the answer to the question "Has the new pipeline plan been approved by the Minister"?
You were so good enough to post the link to the Pipeline Licence Application but seem to not have a clue as to what happened to it.

So, as usual, you can't answer the question.
If Eroton have submitted a pipeline plan to the Minister under the 2014 Act, it must be published in Federal Gazette and State newspapers for the purpose of objections. Assuming no objections from 3rd parties or the DPR, it should be approved. Application made in 2018.
As you are so knowledgable about this particular pipeline and as you claim to be chummy with the SLE office, I assumed you would have the answer. I'm disappointed again.

Interesting Mclean. Can you confirm if the the statutory procedures regarding the public disclosure of the plan, as detailed in Cap 8 to 10 of the 2014 Act, have been completed, and the licence granted by the Minister?

21 February 2018...it's in the RNS of that date.

On 21 Feb 2018, SLE published the news of the proposed FSO/new pipeline. It also stated Eroton were expected to place tenders for contract "within 6 months". Now according to Eroton's MD on 23 July 2019 reports this project is now only a possibility. Fanning really ought to keep awake at Eroton Board Meetings (that is assuming he attends them).

What Eroton would like to believe they are going to put in place (2019 as per Alaric, Mclean) is an FSO, not an FPSO. The 'P' stands for 'Production', so unless posters believe Eroton have a commercial offshore oilfield, they are talking about an FSO.

A few days ago, I questioned the supposition that the new Eroton pipeline/FSO proposal would complete in 2019 as suggested by San Leon and enthusiastically embraced by Pavlov's dogs, led by Mclean and Alaric.
The planning of such a development would be highly complex and lead times to fruition can be long but not as long as some for alternative solutions.
I raised some initial questions re the FSO with Mclean regarding fundamentals of it's logistics and operation, as follows:
"Thanks McClean. So you believe the new system will be inplace in 2019.
As you are so knowledgable, can you enlighten me on a few really important matters?

What is the export market for this crude? Will the shuttle tankers be of sufficient dwt to deliver direct economically to end user or will they shuttle to Bonny for VLCC parcel sizes?

If Bonny, does it have the logistics to accept shuttles? It is after all designed to export.

Also, what are the terms of Eroton's pipeline contract with Aiteo? Is Eroton tied in contractually beyond 2019? If so, what are the withdrawl penalties.
I've many more questions but as this is going to be operational in less than 6 months, these are fundamental."

I got the usual barking from the RatPack but not a single answer, except that 2019 was still the FSO operational date (RatPack motto: "In Fanning we trust").

I now quote from an interview with Emofu, Eroton's Chief Executive published today:

"Yes, we are working on the possibility of an alternative crude evacuation line due to the current challenges faced, which we are hopeful would significantly reduce crude theft and improve production uptime from our Asset."

That means that there is a less than 50% chance that this new development will ever happen.

Has anyone considered the most likely scenario? This project could well have been mooted as a negotiating ploy with Aiteo and Shell to get better transmission/terminalling terms. Fat chance.

There you go again, all upset. I am genuinely concerned for your health.

Manyana, agree with your view of national powerlessness, but if you abdicate, or I abdicate our personal responsibility, then we are as guilty as any.....and probably more so as we are educated.

Are you serious!!!!

O+W, although I respect you for being open to debate, without the gutter comments that come with anonymity, nevertheless I don't agree with your optimism.
On the plus side, the oil price has held up but buttressed only by international tensions. The guarantees put in place to protect the Loan Notes I see as the only positive to credit OF. The proposal to put an FSO in place is worth consideration but raises a huge number of unanswered questions....its not just a new pipeline.
Eroton has had its debt restructured, a sign of weakness, contrary to the BS that accompanied the announcement. This will push the prospect of dividends out several years further. In common with that, Notore Chemicals which currently takes all its gas feedstock from Eroton, has also had to have its borrowings restructured.
SLE has, pro tem, enough cash to carry on for one year, without the overdue Loan Note instalments. If those were to be paid, SLE has then little further prospect of near term income, and will remain invested in a Mauritian intermediary company that is effectively bankrupt. KMPG seem to now realise that their complacence in 2016 could not be sustained and are now taking a more realistic line.
I suspect that SLE's only salvation is a huge security uptick in the oil price in order to sell out to a patsy...but I give that little chance.

And the shares keep going down......