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Tony,
According to ANGS presentation slides, based on old gas prices (CPR 2021), SFB May worth over 2.50 (fully diluted). However, now the gas prices is increased by 4 times since 2021 CPR, the economic of the field has been increased by many fold. I assume, 2.50 x 4p = 10p+ or so, and also company have oil production as well. So, it should be valued over 10p/share on ST success, and by applying discount, let’s say 5p+ in December?
Tennyson unrisked valuation at $19 per barrel is 30p per share ($328m, from EOG tweet). However, these numbers are based on 35% recovery factor. If 50% RF applies, then the unrisked valuation net to EOG is GBP 410m or 43p per share
There is also a possibility that drill has reached the TD and they doing the logging. During the 2019 drill program, the drill took 2-3 weeks time to reach TD & run logging. Also, Stena Don have been very efficient and has drilled v quickly for CHAR, to reach their well to 2500 target depth in just 20 days. Serenity is quite shallow, the TD is under 1900m or so. If we assume, Stena is drilling at same rate, then they should have reached TD by now or will be very soon
https://twitter.com/sadaatumar/status/1577595087411974145?s=46&t=_6xEaogb7BYhVWQa-6zhqg
"In all cases it is assumed that the fluid fill is 100% oil. Similar to Blake and Liberator, there is a possibility that gas is present locally at the crest. If so, they are likely to be thin gas caps. This is not captured in the in place volume range presented here. "
Page 103
"Adding a 70% Sw cut-off to define net pay gives a low N/G in the Serenity well but a very low average Swof 29% indicating better oil saturations than had been observed in the Tain and Magnolia wells. "
From CPR Report, Pg 83
Thanks GP for the valuable information from your friends. I believe, he refers to Magnolia well (13/23A-7), which was drilled by Dana Petroleum and located 8 KM west of Serenity discovery well.
According to i3 oil migration video (available at their website under Serenity section), that well was off-structure and it was basically in the heavy oil field area. Given that, the well had intersected oil in 120 feet thick captain sand (water wet) was very encouraging that oil has been slightly migrated from Serenity towards West.
There is a post well analysis, which also indicates the possibility of pinch-out toward up-direction (at serenity)
The question is, market is giving high valuation to UJO & EDR for their Wressle oil production, while giving significant discount to EOG.
There will be arguments that UJO have West Newton & EDR have fracking assets, but those assets are no where near to production. They are not even commercial. They are yet to drill.
Whereas, EOG has high impact low risk Serenity Well, which is currently drilling and result will be known in 3 weeks time.
At the moment , it’s difficult for I3E/EOG to exactly tell, how they will fund the development program, because at the moment they don’t have idea about the size of field. Once, the results of an appraisal well is known, after they will have clear idea.
For instance, if S-2 failed to find commercial oil, then the development will be include one tie up well to Tain facility. That will be relatively easy and cheap and both partners can do solely by raise cash from market.
If S-2 discover oil in decent pay, then Serenity will be developiled as a standalone. For that, there are different options; either Debt/equity (70/30) can be accessed easily, Reserve based loan, or farm-down interest for fully carried .. all options are open for JV partner