Member Info for birddog816

Vulture Capitalists - I'm guessing they would have one eye on asset stripping?

There are hundreds of effected homes in that area. Just have a quick look at Google maps. These were test cases essentially the way it reads. The bandwagon is now rolling and it's hard to imagine that many more will not jump on it. This alone will severely effect the prospects of expanding passenger numbers let alone any other factors. The nightly cargo flights, which have certainly helped the airport in short term, seem to have been the straw that broke the camels back for these residents.

Oh dear. You can only imagine the flood gates will open now.

https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/19107358.airport-plan-hit-12m-passengers-every-year/

Ambitious plans.

https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/19107358.airport-plan-hit-12m-passengers-every-year/

Ambitious plans.

Hi Gerry - Your maths looks about right. in GBP then, it's a liability of C£37m. Add to that the losses on the airline.

Who knows! - If it was me I'd be offering the lessor £20m now in full and final and find the cash from somewhere, then sell the airline for what ever I could get for it. I guess PLC land doesn't operate that way.

If they don't offload it soon, it will drag the whole thing down.

Gerry - I noticed that too!
As for excluding the airline and leasing liabilities and cash burn, the messaging seems a bit disingenuous. It's a pretty big elephant in the room when those 2 things are burning through the cash at a far higher rate of the rest of the business. The biggest issue they have is the huge liabilities on the leases. It just seems unfathomable that anyone would take on that liability. I reckon they're stuck with it as it is simply not saleable. So any plan going forward should include keeping the airline and lease company.

So, they had a bank facility of £120m if I recall from the restructuring last summer. Does the £77.4m mean that they are now £42.6m into that facility? - And, the cash burn excludes Stobart Air and Propius. If they've excluded that from the numbers, does that mean they've disposed of it?

Gerry - For the price of 3 shares, you could buy the airline. Imagine the fun you could have. I know they said that they wanted / intended to offload the airline by 28th Feb, but why is that date so important aside from being year end? Even if they're close to a deal it would go through before 28th Feb. Does something crystalise after this date?

haha Gerry! My double garage analogy - If you didn't have one, you would fill it up with junk you don't use. I apply that in business sometimes.

Ah Gerry - you miss the point old chap. Make it too nice and man cave gets rebranded and is no longer sacred!
Garden shed conversions and dark holes in double garages is the reality. Anything more becomes a shared asset.

we can but dream of a holiday abroad. Sadly I think 2022 is the best we can realistically look at. I need a man cave but not sure Mrs Dog will sign off the capex!

I guess at the end of the day WB tenure has not been great - whether that's down to him or not is another matter. The share price had devalued considerably under his stewardship (about 70% lost value), and that was before any Covid impact. So it could be a good thing to get in a fresh CEO. Seems strange, given that he's going to a competitor, that he's staying on in the role at ESKN. Would have thought gardening leave would apply.

its the gift that keeps giving!

I must admit Gerry - I didn't see that one coming! Never a dull day as you say.
The next days and weeks will be interesting. They are surely desperate for a good news story to counter this news.

Gerry - having seen that WB has resigned to go to a competitor it's not particular clear what the BODs strategy is.
They have signalled their intent to sell the airline before the FY end...that's in 19 days time. WB is going to Swissport, who compete directly with ESKN for handling services at Stansted, and no one would imagine that promoting Southend Airport over Stansted is part of their remit either. People jump ship, it's pretty normal, but is it because the good ship Stobart (Esken) is sinking. we'll see.

Hi Gerry - Surely an offload of the Energy would be mad? - It's the only thing that produces a profit. The aviation sector, be it airport(s), services, or airlines loses loads. Mind you, all the madness and oddities of this particular company make it exciting and tradable I guess :)

Hi Gerry - A very eventful start to 2021 for me. And they said 2020 was tough!
They achieved a £1m loss for the FY to Feb20. That's much improved on the last years results and I believe the best NP result since STOB took over in 2008 for Southend Airport. with the record 2.1m passengers, the amazon cargo flights and increase in private jet traffic in that year, it represents their best ever year. It's difficult to see how or when they will be able to improve on that, especially as they have now lost most of their airline clients.

On the sale of the airline, STOB (ESKN) have always been quick to tell us that something is in the pipeline. No such noises on this aside from reaffirming the need and desire to offload it ASAP. Really - who would be remotely interested it in reality?

There will of course be some good short term trading opportunities on here, but longer term? People are talking about it being hugely undervalued. I think you shared sometime ago that Tosca were in at about 70p break even. If this company could tick along for the next 10 years without need for huge amounts of cash then it could see out the recovery maybe, but it's cash hungry and doesn't generate enough to sustain itself. Tosca will need to put their hand in their pocket to keep it going at some point and that will be the point we will find out what will become of this I would think.

Lets see.

Hi Davey - Reading through the article it seems it's not been sold and only mentions companies that don't want to buy it.
Not sure why this is good news for us?? All they're saying is that they want to sell it by the end of February - We knew that 6 months ago. They've got little over 3 weeks left and it seems no suitors. Why on earth anyone would want to buy a little regional airline that looses a fortune YoY, has lost its one and only revenue stream and has huge liabilities north of $100m? .....during a global pandemic....post Brexit.... I don't share the optimism I'm afraid.

"Closer to home, the company has proven beyond reasonable doubt that it has no idea how to make money from aviation but world class at providing guarantees which have little value to support!I"

TF - Succinctly put.

Southend Airport had made a modest profit every year prior to Stobart buying it. Since then, it has lost staggering amounts of money, with each year that passes, the YoY losses get bigger and bigger and defy any business logic. Carlisle Airport - no chance of that airport ever making a positive return. Stobart Air - loss making airline with no customers beyond 2022, debt ridden and with huge liabilities hanging over it like the sword of Damocles waiting to fall. Even the new incumbent of the Aer Lingus franchise has steered away from it. It's toxic.

Gerry often quotes the narrative that the BOD put out on the various RNS's, but the numbers never back up the projections or predictions. With or without Covid this business was in deep trouble with a flawed business plan. The financial year pre covid they lost a staggering £150m from a revenue turn over of £170m. That's ridiculous. Unless they are able to drastically turn it around and change the model then it is doomed. Covid will undoubtedly be blamed for it's demise, which of course will suit the narrative the BOD have peddled, but in reality the only effect of Covid on this business is to have accelerated the inevitable running out of other peoples cash.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Albert Einstein