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Prufrock article: Private jet firm Gama set for hard landing. It says the company is subject of "several" legal actions including for overcharging for maintenance and botched engine upgrades. The company is countersuing.
Intriguing speculation surrounds both companies, especially Inmarsat where the contrast between what its bosses say and what the market portends via the share price could hardly be more stark. Inmarsat is dashing for growth as it attempts to capture enough of the newish market to supply broadband via satellite, particularly to in-flight passenger aircraft. To the winners, providing in-flight connectivity should mean a plentiful stream of cash profits. But Inmarsat�s window of opportunity is limited, the market is competitive, agreeing contracts with airlines takes forever (each deal is bespoke) and the upfront capital spend is daunting. These factors will drain profits and cash flow in both 2017 and 2018 more than was guessed 12 months ago. That much is acknowledged both by Inmarsat�s bosses, City analysts and institutional investors. As to the divergence between the ostensible confidence of Inmarsat�s bosses and the message coming from the share price, Inmarsat�s chief executive, Rupert Pearce, says the seamless coverage provided by Inmarsat�s Global Xpress broadband network puts it in a strong position and that �we are probably doing better than anyone else in the market right now�. Meanwhile, the share price says Inmarsat is a wreck. At 462p, it is 60 per cent below its all-time peak, hit just two years ago. More telling, if 2017�s final dividend were maintained, the dividend yield would be 9.1 per cent. Yields of that level don�t emerge from trouble-free companies. Rather, they signal strongly that the payout is unaffordable and will be slashed. Yet that was the elephant in the room during the company�s Q&A with City analysts for the third-quarter results last month. In a strange dance, both Inmarsat�s bosses and the analysts avoided any mention of the subject. This has left me reworking my valuation figures. A level of about �11 a share (see Bearbull, 28 July 2017) now looks too optimistic. Focusing harder on cash profits � rather than the accounting variety � reduces the annuity value of the average annual free cash that one could expect from Inmarsat based on the past five years. That value now lies pretty much in line with the share price. Besides that is the great unknown � how much value to give to the barrow loads of capital spending Inmarsat has done in the past five years and will continue to do for another two. Tweaking the assumptions � chiefly, the discount rates used � can generate almost any figure you want. However, the core message is that the overall value should be � but only �should be� � still well clear of the 462p share price. In which case, I am holding on, but with a sense of foreboding.
Daily Mail for 2018.
Yes, spread often wide on this one but don't know why sorry. Hopefully good long term prospects though.
movements again...
today.
Cineworld got a boost on Tuesday as Numis lifted its stance on the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and bumped up the target price by 10% to 825p following recent share price weakness. The brokerage pointed out that the shares are down 10% since mid-August on the back of weak but cyclical UK admissions. This, combined with Numis' expectations for upgrades next year thanks to a strong film slate and mid-single digit underlying ticket prices, leads to the rating upgrade. Numis said Cineworld's share price has been dented by a 17% drop in UK cinema admissions between August and October. However, it argued that only twice in the last 30 years have admissions fallen in consecutive years and said it is confident the quality of the film slate for the remainder of the year - which includes Star Wars VIII on 14 December - and in 2018 will support a robust outcome. The brokerage pointed to the fact that Cineworld increased its UK ticket prices last month and restructured its 'My Cineworld Plus' scheme, effectively disincentivising the 10% online discount. "We think customers are sufficiently engaged and the film slate sufficiently strong for this price rise to not impact admission levels (+5% average ticket price in 2018). We are therefore increasing FY18E earning per share by 3%, which is 4% ahead of consensus."
reports �18m rescue rights issue at 50p per share.
looking good? Or top up / buy time?
a link to Merlin's news today as reason for drop. However, terrorism aside if Merlin affected by bad weather then families likely to take children indoors to, say, the cinema...
Please go up..!!
More large buys at full ask.
today. Move upwards with results next week would be nice.
ST in IC mag raises target to 170p. Tipped in Mail on Sunday Midas for growth potential and income.
N+1 Singer - "In our view, the current valuation fails to reflect this positive outlook, good revenue visibility and reducing earnings risk. We initiate coverage with a Buy and 16p target price."
going on? Getting to bounce levels?
so likely boost Friday and Monday.
raises target to 1290p.
here but intrigued... Anyone have any thoughts of where this might go?
today.