Member Info for ADHB

Thanks Golitha. Appreciated.

"Because they are!"

OK. I ask because the prospectus states the following:

"24 April 2023 Commencement of trading in the New Shares at the Hanover and
Frankfurt stock exchange (09:00 CEST)
New DIs created and credited to relevant accounts
Issuance of CREST refund payments if applicable
Admission of the New Shares to the Official List of the FCA
New Shares begin trading on the Main Market for listed securities
of the London Stock Exchange (08:00 BST)
Settlement of New Shares"

Why do people think the new shares are trading in Germany today?

All rump shares were placed with "qualified institutional investors", whoever they are. The underwriters haven't been left holding any.

"Simply divide by 10 for what todays price would be in old money. 54.55p mid price."

Or divide by 5.807 to also account for the rights issue. About 95p.

Matt S "Did the same thing, bought in today, meaning, i don't get the benefits of right s issue by getting the additional shares at a discount and i also loose because of the dilution. not looking forward to tomorrow"

Dilution is factored into the current price - note the drop on the 28th March.

I couldn't have put it better myself!

C26 - I am confused.

You at 17.52 "No-one wanting to discuss the shorts in TUI?
https://shortsell.nl/short/TUI/all
Pretty much the highest they have ever been.
They must all be wrong eh?"

You at 15.42 - "And one of your reasons for that was "shorters".
How can that be reasonable when you can't short this stock?"

"ADHB, folk can buy right now at 30% less than your calculated TERP.
You keep telling everyone it's going up, see you in 2 weeks ;)"

Actually, I agreed that TheGreyMonk's target of £10 in a year looked reasonable.

"What if you can buy 2 weeks from now at 20% less than today's price?"
Then great. What if you can't?

C2645sg - "What do you mean? Be specific..." The TERP calculation acknowledges the number of new shares and their price. The TERP shows the theoretical price on ex-rights day compared to the closing price the night before.
On 27th the closing price was (according to IG) 1416.8. Thus, the theoretical price on the 28th with no other factors considered should have been 822.7.

Proof that the price was theoretical is given by the fact that the price dropped considerably further. Possibly, the rights issue was taken badly by investors, possibly some needed to sell shares to pay for rights, possibly the issue attracted attention of shorters. Those issues should be temporary, in which case the shares are currently at a discount.

"The whole world is walking into stagflation/recession and you think holidays will not be impacted?" - That's a different point. You may be right, but the current discounted price should ameliorate the risk slightly.

I'd agree with TGM.

TUI's own adjustment factor to calculate the TERP is to multiply the pre-rights price by 0.5807 (TUI website - Investor relations).
On 7 March the price hit 1680. Multiply by 0.5807 gives you 975. Effectively the share was trading at a price of 975 on 7 March.

Obviously there are supply/demand issues and lots of investors sold up a portion of their shares to take up some rights. Also, there is a concern that there will be a further drop once the rights shares start trading. However, if people were prepared to pay what is effectively 975 for the shares 1 month ago, and the company's situation has been improved by the reduction in debt, why wouldn't 1000 be a decent target for the year?

No it didn't.

I have opened yahoo finance, which is where you lot appear to get your memories from. Historical data.
5 October 2020 - OK - yahoo finance says price in the 30s. Mmm... not how I remember. Lets check some other dates.

Lets look at 17 Sept. Nettles bought at 189.74 (sounds correct from my memory). Price shows on yahoo in the 60s! Maybe there's an error?

Lets look at 9 Oct 2020. As shown, Reuters thinks the price was around 228 that day. Yahoo finance thinks between 67 and 86. Reuters or Yahoo finance... who to trust???

Who remembers what the RR price was before Covid? Must have been 7 quid right? Yahoo finance says 2 Dec 2019 the price was 240.

I think I see where the confusion is. People on here get their figures from Yahoo finance. I'll guess that Yahoo applied an adjustment to the historical prices to account for the rights issue of 28 Oct 2020. People see those prices and remember trading in the 30s and 40s... but they didn't.

If you say so mate. The charts are, indeed, available.

My posts are below; I stand by everything I actually stated... although I failed to keep my last post on RR promise. Trading RR in the 30s and 40s were you?

"I don't recall RR getting anywhere near its rights issue price of 32. It bounced off 100 just after the rights issue was announced and went up to something in the region of 270 during the process. Post rights the lowest it got was upper 80s (until recent times)."

"Don't remember that. Rights issue announced on 1 October 2020 - price about a quid. Then more than doubled (as I say, 270ish is my memory), then dropped to 80-100 range on ex-rights day of 28 October. No-where near 32."

"My last post on RR as this is TUI board... but... if only there was a way of checking. If only we could look at the charts on LSE for RR and look at Oct 2020. Highest price in Oct 2020 256.2 (so I wasn't far wrong). I sold some myself during this time to avoid the RI. Went up from a quid on RI announcement, went down to 80s with Ex-rights on 28 Oct. Exactly as I remember. The point is that the price has never been close to 32. Hopefully TUI won't languish here either."

The internet induces a horrible urge to be "right" on unimportant matters. Thus, I submit as evidence an article from Reuters on 9 October 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/rolls-royce-hldg-stock-idINL8N2H02W7

"LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Rolls Royce shares on Friday were heading for their best weekly gain since listing in 1987 as the British aircraft engine maker’s plan to raise money to cope with the coronavirus travel crisis triggered bargain hunting among investors.

The value of Rolls Royce shares more than doubled in the last week to 228.90 pence, although that is still a far cry from the 690 pence they traded at before the coronavirus outbreak."

"I wish - RR is my main holding since buying from before RI, including the RI and many times after, ranging from 32p - 187p.
It's a £7 share either way, but it's never been 270p since RI."

My last post on RR as this is TUI board... but... if only there was a way of checking. If only we could look at the charts on LSE for RR and look at Oct 2020. Highest price in Oct 2020 256.2 (so I wasn't far wrong). I sold some myself during this time to avoid the RI. Went up from a quid on RI announcement, went down to 80s with Ex-rights on 28 Oct. Exactly as I remember. The point is that the price has never been close to 32. Hopefully TUI won't languish here either.

Don't remember that. Rights issue announced on 1 October 2020 - price about a quid. Then more than doubled (as I say, 270ish is my memory), then dropped to 80-100 range on ex-rights day of 28 October. No-where near 32.

I don't recall RR getting anywhere near its rights issue price of 32. It bounced off 100 just after the rights issue was announced and went up to something in the region of 270 during the process. Post rights the lowest it got was upper 80s (until recent times).

TUI's own TERP calculations suggest multiplying the old price by 0.5807 to get the TERP.
Lowest price in October was 101.5 (or thereabouts).
There was a 10:1 reverse split.
101.5 x 10 x 0.5807 = 589.41... so current price is lower than it was in October.
After the rights there will be less debt, so looks cheap.
But, after the rights there will be lots of cheap shares being sold by the underwriters, so the price may go down from here.
I suspect long term holders will do well at these prices.