RE: Value based on in-situ3 Sep 2025 16:46
A snippet from ML a few months ago (I hope you don't mind me posting it ML)
The market rarely values companies at 100% of in situ value, especially at this stage but even getting a small fraction of that can translate into a huge re-rating compared to the current MC.
Typically, junior resource companies like us are valued on roughly these %’s of in situ value. Early exploration companies might trade at 0.1% to 0.5%.
With a defined resource and some basic economic data, valuations move toward 0.5% to 1.5%.
Scoping studies or pre-feasibility studies tend to push valuations into the 1% to 3% range.
Once a definitive feasibility study is done, permits are secured, and strategic partnerships, JV or offtake deals are in sight, valuations often reach 5% to 10% or more!
The location of the project matters a lot too and as we are located in Western Australia, one of the safest, lowest-risk, and infrastructure, experience rich mining jurisdictions in the world. That reduces risk premiums and usually means investors are willing to pay higher multiples than they would for similar projects in more challenging countries.
Currently we have about 690m shares in issue, and the share price is roughly 11.95p giving the company a market cap around £82.5m.
If we apply the valuation percentages I just mentioned to the estimated £13b to £24b in situ profit value, here’s what I got (please feel free to challenge these figures as I don’t want to miss anything).
At 1% of in situ value, the market cap would be £130m to £240m which translates to a share price of about 18.8p to 34.8p
At 3%, the market cap jumps to £390m to £720m, or 56.5p to 104.4p per share.
At 5% to 10%, the market cap ranges from £650 million to £2.4 billion, with a share price between 94.2p and 347.8p
Right now (JUNE 2025), the market cap is roughly 0.34% to 0.63% of the estimated in situ value, which is very low, even by early stage exploration standards and especially low given the scale and location (which has a far lower risk premium that often suppresses valuations in parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, or Latin America). It also makes the project vastly more appealing for future joint ventures, project finance, or offtake negotiations with end-users or majors.