Week Ahead: BoE rate, Pru, Intertek

After European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet dropped heavy hints this week that the ECB is seriously contemplating a rise in interest rates for the eurozone, attention switches to the next week's meeting of the rate-setting committee, where the hawks slowly seem to be gaining a foothold.Last month the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) played what one pundit termed a 1-5-2-1 formation that brought back memories of former England coach Terry Venables and his Christmas tree team structure. The MPC's resident dove, Adam Posen, voted for no change in the base rate and for a £50bn top-up to the Bank of England's quantitative easing (QE) programme. Five members went for the status quo of no change to the base rate and no change to QE. Two members, Spencer Dale and Martin Weale, both called for a quarter point increase in the rate while the MPC's resident hawk, Andrew Sentance, upped the ante and called for a half point increase instead of the quarter point rate hike he normally calls for.Given that Bank of England governor Mervyn King, who was among the five who voted for the status quo last month, has recently been saying that people calling for a rate rise are getting a bit ahead of themselves, it is a fairly safe bet he will be arguing that rates should be left unchanged, but there is a definite sense that the force is with the hawks.On the company results front, after well received results from Aviva this week it will be the turn of fellow insurerPrudential to make a splash on Wednesday, while the day after, life assurance group Standard Life reports full year figures.Results from the Pru could make the market wonder at the wisdom of blocking management's "bet the farm" purchase of the Asian business of fallen US insurance giant AIG, as Asia is likely to be the main engine of growth for the insurer. In contrast, UK sales growth has been insipid but there was some improvement in the new business margin in the third quarter and analysts will be keen to see whether this has continued.As for Standard Life , Charles Stanley said the company performed well in the first nine months of 2010 "and its accelerated investment programme seems to be paying off with increased net inflows and continued growth in assets." "Unlike some of its competitors Standard Life is doing well in the UK with its early entry into the SIPP [self-invested personal pension] and Wrap segments clearly paying off," analyst Nic Clarke added. Bus and train group Stagecoach pulls into the station on Monday to deliver an interim management statement covering the third quarter of the group's financial year. Recent updates from competitors Go-Ahead and National Express were upbeat, and there is little reason to suspect that it won't be more of the same from Stagecoach."Performance should remain strong," reckons Peel Hunt. "UK bus was up +2.3% at H1 [the half year stage] with the prospect of 'modest growth' in H2. Current developments on East London Bus will be of current interest as the company has some difficult industrial nuts to crack," the broker reckons. "In North America, which we see as increasingly driven by megabus, we are fascinated to see whether the 80% growth achieved in H1 is being maintained - we expect total US operating profit growth to accelerate from 45% in H1 to 100% for the year following a H2 decline in 2009," Peel Hunt predicted. The trading update will give another opportunity for outspoken chief executive officer, Brian Souter, to bang the drum for his campaign for track operations to be handed over to the operating companies. Quality and safety services provider Intertek , due to announce full year results on Monday, was "not immune from the recession", notes Charles Stanley, but that did not prevent growth completely, though it did squeeze margins. "For example, in the first half of 2010, organic revenue growth was lower than normal at +4.6% and the operating profit margin declined by 70 bps [basis points] to 15.9%. The second half has seen acceleration in the rate of growth and organic revenue growth is expected to be about 6.5% at constant exchange rates for the year. With the benefit from acquisitions, reported revenue is expected to increase by almost 10% in 2010," the broker forecast.Market consensus is for pre-tax profit of £201.2m on revenue of £1,355m, which makes Charles Stanley slightly bullish with its pre-tax profit forecast of £210m. The broker is going for earnings per share (EPS) of 90p, up from 81.5p in 2009 and a fraction ahead of the 89.2p consensus, while it predicts the full year dividend will be lifted to 28.2p (consensus: 28.46p) from 25.5p the year before. Fellow FTSE 100 member Petrofac is also declaring full year figures on Monday. Charles Stanley reckons profit before tax will rise from 2009's $448m to $543m, while EPS is tipped to advance to 77p from 64p. Market consensus is for EPS of 80.07p. Charles Stanley has pencilled in a full year dividend of 27p (consensus: 28.41p), up from 22.5p last year.Events in North Africa and Asia will have had an effect on the oilfield services company's operations, as they already have had on its share price."Petrofac has six strategically located operational centres, in Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Chennai, Mumbai, Aberdeen and Woking," Charles Stanley notes. Apart from political risks, the broker thinks the focus of Monday's results will be on the group's "tremendous order book" and on strategy, as investors have become more concerned about the direction in which the business is moving. "Towards the end of 2010, Petrofac acquired a 15% stake in Seven Energy, which is based in Nigeria. Petrofac's investment was $100m and its plan is to assist Seven Energy with the development of its production, processing and transportation assets. This move into more upstream activities especially in another politically unstable area was not well received," analyst Tony Shepard said.Monday March 07INTERIMS3D Diagnostic Imaging INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEStavert ZigomalaQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEFrontline Ltd.GMSValiRxFINALSAccess Intelligence, British Polythene Industries, CLS Holdings, Inmarsat, Intertek Group, Management Consulting Group, Michael Page International, Paddy Power, Petrofac Ltd., SDL, Tarsus GroupANNUAL REPORTBlackRock World Mining TrustIMSSIG Group HoldingsEGMSGreen Dragon Gas Ltd. (DI), Origo Partners AGMSJupiter Second Split Trust Geared Shares, ProventecFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFennerINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSM2 Money Supply (JPN)Current Account and Trade Balance (JPN)Sentix Investor Confidence (EU) (9:30)Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)Tuesday March 08INTERIMSAbcam, Interior Services GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBankruptcies (JPN)Machine Orders (JPN)Bank of France Business Sentiment (FRA) (07:30)Trade Balance (FRA) (07:45)Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)NFIB Small Business Optimism (US) (12:30)Q3Ashtead GroupGMSForte Energy NLFINALSAdvanced Medical Solutions Group, Antofagasta, Cupid, FBD Holdings, Hydro International, Inchcape, InterQuest Group, Johnson Service Group, Old Mutual, Pace, Pinewood Shepperton, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, STM Group, Tullett Prebon, Weir Group, ZotefoamsAGMSHenderson Diversified Income Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Sales Monitor (00:01)RICS House Price Balance (00:01)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEArtemis VCTWednesday March 09INTERIMSEncore OilINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEStagecoach GroupINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAlumasc Group, Ashmore Group, Asian Citrus Holding, BHP Billiton, Centaur Media, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Dunelm Group, Electric & General Inv Trust, Gartmore Irish Growth Fund, Hays, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., Medusa Mining Ltd. (DI), Renishaw, Ricardo, Sportingbet, Wilmington GroupQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish Assets TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNominal GDP (JPN)CGPI (JPN)Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)FINALSAfrican Eagle Resources, Alkane Energy, Ark Therapeutics Group, Avengardco Investments Public Ltd.GDR, Bank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), BATM Advanced Communications Ltd., Costain Group, F&C Inv Trust, Hill & Smith Holdings, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd., Interserve, Johnston Press, Lookers, Melrose, Prudential, Restaurant Group, SQS Software Quality Systems AG, Stadium Group, Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs), Tullow Oil, Yule Catto & CoANNUAL REPORTMeggittEGMSBATM Advanced Communications Ltd.AGMSTravelzestUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBRC Shop Price Index (00:01)Trade Balance (10:30)FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAvesco Group, Avon Rubber, Baronsmead VCT 3, Baronsmead VCT 4, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, British American Tobacco, CRH, Domino Printing Sciences, Goldenport Holdings Inc., Hammerson, Lavendon Group, Meggitt, New World Resources NV (DI), Octopus Titan VCT 1, Octopus Titan VCT 2, Safestore Holdings, Scottish American Inv Company, Serco Group, Spirent Communications, St. Modwen Properties, Standard CharteredThursday March 10INTERIMSGroup NBT, IndigoVision GroupINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAnglo & Overseas, Penna ConsultingQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEIBM Corp., Lilly (Eli) & CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSMachine Tool Orders (JPN)Non-farm Payroll (FRA) (06:30)Industrial Production (FRA) (07:45)Manufacturing Output (FRA) (07:45)Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)Current Account (GER) (07:00)Retail Price Index (GER) (07:00)ECB Report (EU) (09:00)Weekly Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Trade Balance (US) (13:30)Monthly Budget Statement (US) (19:00)GMSAnglo & Overseas, TXOFINALSAggreko, Cineworld Group, Clarkson, Computacenter, Derwent London, Dignity, H&T Group, Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), Standard Life, Tikit GroupANNUAL REPORTBank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S)EGMSCritical Information Group, Davenham GroupAGMSAcuity Growth VCT , Acuity Growth VCT 'C' Shares, Avesco Group, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Sanderson Group, Sperati CATRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSHome Retail Group, Punch TavernsUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (UK) (09:30)Manufacturing Output (UK) (09:30)BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)NIESR GDP estimate (UK)Friday March 11INTERIMSJD WetherspoonINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAmati VCT 2, Murgitroyd GroupQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATECarnivalINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Prices Index (GER) (08:00)Retail Sales (US) (13:30)University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (US) (14:55)UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSProducer Prices Index (10:30)FINALSAga Rangemaster Group, Headlam GroupANNUAL REPORTTHB GroupAGMSHyundai Motor Co GDR (Reg S), KT Corp. ADR, Northern AIM VCT, SK Telecom Co Ltd. ADS, Throgmorton TrustFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEImpax Asset Management Group, New Europe Property Investments, Pressure Technologies, Sage Group