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UPDATE 1-Barclays' chief UK economist to head Bank of England forecast team

Tue, 05th Nov 2013 18:50

* BoE unemployment forecasts in spotlight due to guidance

* Barclays view on unemployment, rates close to BoE's

* Current forecast unit head to return to finance ministry

By David Milliken

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England said onTuesday that it had hired Barclays' chief UK economist,Simon Hayes, to head its economic forecasting team, in a rareprivate-sector appointment.

Hayes, who worked at the BoE for eight years before joiningBarclays, will draft quarterly economic forecasts for thecentral bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, as wellas review the BoE's economic models.

The Bank's forecasts have faced criticism from Britishlawmakers and some economists in recent years for failing topredict the persistently high inflation and very sluggishrecovery that has characterised the aftermath of the crisis -though few private-sector forecasts have been much better.

And now the forecasts are under even closer scrutiny, due tonew governor Mark Carney's commitment not to raise interestrates before unemployment falls to 7 percent.

In August the central bank forecast this would take threeyears - a timescale that most private-sector economists thoughtwas too long, given unemployment is 7.7 percent now.

However, in a Reuters poll before the BoE's October ratemeeting, forecasts by Barclays were more in line with the BoE'sthinking, with a prediction that it would take until the thirdquarter of 2016 before unemployment fell to 7 percent.

Barclays also forecast interest rates would not rise untilthe third quarter of 2016, and that the central bank would notrestart its quantitative easing asset purchase programme.

In more recent forecasts published by Barclays on Nov. 1, itpredicts inflation and growth will average 2.3 percent nextyear. The growth estimate is close to the consensus amongeconomic forecasters but slightly less than the 2.5 percentwhich the BoE expects.

No official start date has been set for Hayes, who willreport to the BoE's chief economist, Spencer Dale. The BoE saidthe current head of its forecasting unit, finance ministryofficial Robert Woods, is due to complete his secondment at theBoE and return to work in government in the spring of 2014.

Hayes is making an unusual move by returning to the BoEafter leaving for the private sector, as it is more common forBoE forecasters to leave for better paid jobs in London'sfinancial sector. Hayes was not immediately available forcomment on Tuesday.

Carney, himself a former Goldman Sachs banker, has madeother external hires such as new chief operating officerCharlotte Hogg, an erstwhile Santander executive, and deputygovernor Jon Cunliffe, a former British envoy to the EuropeanUnion.

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