MARKET COMMENT: UK Shares To Open Higher With Eye On Sanctions

LONDON (Alliance News) - London stocks are set to open higher Tuesday, as the UK corporate reporting season ramps up, but sentiment may remain cautious ahead of the major US data reports still to come later in the week and as EU officials discuss a fresh round of sanctions against Russia.

After closing just fractionally lower on Monday, futures trading indicates that the FTSE 100 will open 0.2% higher Tuesday at 6804 points.

UK stocks made a soft start to the week on Monday, amid a dearth of economic data and as afternoon reports said EU leaders were nearing agreement over a new round of sanctions against Russia. Sanctions talk is unlikely to remain far from investors minds Tuesday, as EU leaders meet in Brussels to potentially finalise and announce new agreements.

Moreover, with US GDP and jobs data still to come towards the end of the week, investors have even more reason to hold tight Tuesday.

US stocks went on to have a mixed session Monday, amid a lull in the US second-quarter earnings season. The DJIA closed up 0.1%, the S&P 500 closed fractionally higher, and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.1%.

Stocks in Asia had a more positive session Tuesday, with the Nikkei closing up 0.6%, despite some disappointing Japanese retail sales data that showed a 0.6% year-on-year fall in June. The Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite both continue up about 0.5%.

UK mortgage approvals data provides the domestic economic focus of the morning, due at 0930 BST along with other consumer credit and net lending data from the Bank of England. Mortgage approvals have been on downward trend since their January peak amid the introduction of stricter lending rules imposed by the Bank of England in an attempt to slow the previously rampant UK housing market and prepare households for the start a higher interest rate environment in the UK.

Following four consecutive months of falls, economists are expecting mortgage approvals to have risen a little to 62,000 in June from 61,707 in May.

The International Monetary Fund late Monday said that while such macro-prudential measures by the Bank of England should be the "first line of defence", if they prove ineffective in reining in the housing market, then the central bank should consider tightening its monetary policy instead. The advice from the IMF comes just days after it raised its UK 2014 growth forecast to 3.2%, double its original prediction a year earlier.

Ahead of the lending data, Bank of England rate setter Ben Broadbent is scheduled to speak in London at 0800 BST.

The supermarkets may be in focus later in the morning when the Kantar Worldpanel releases its regular grocery market share data at 0930 BST.

The UK corporate earnings calendar is a little busier Tuesday. Full-year results are out from PZ Cussons, while interim results have been published by Domino's Pizza, Drax Group, GKN, and Tullett Prebon. Quarterly numbers have been released by BP and Next.

BP has said it currently expects to meet its 2014 targets, although given its strong ties to the Russian oil industry, it is one of the UK names with the most to lose from any new sanctions that may be announced by the EU, and the stock will likely be in focus as and when that announcement happens.

From the US Tuesday the consumer confidence survey at 1500 BST is the main data focus, while ahead of that at 1400 BST, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index will also be of interest given current concerns over the US housing market.

There's also some big US corporate names due to release their second-quarter earnings Tuesday, including social media giant Twitter and Reynolds, the tobacco company 42% owned by British American Tobacco.

By Jon Darby; jondarby@alliancenews.com; @jondarby100

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