* S&P 500 off ~0.2%, Dow down ~0.7%, Nasdaq rises ~0.4%
* Materials weakest major S&P sector; tech leads gainers
* Dollar ~flat; gold down, crude up; bitcoin up ~4%
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.49%
June 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters
reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
REAL ESTATE'S BIG START LOOKS TO GET EVEN BETTER -MS (1208 EDT/1608 GMT)
Real estate investment trusts are easily off to their best year ever, up about 26% so far in
2021, a sign there's more upside to come as strong starts to REITs historically beget even
stronger full-year performance, Morgan Stanley (MS) said on Monday.
Past years with a good jump through mid-June that ended even better, ranked according to
gains, were 2019, with an 18.7% start that ended up 25.8%; 2014 with 15.9% ending at 30.4%; 2010
with 12.9% ending at 28.5% and 2003, with 16.1% ending at 36.7%.
Morgan Stanley said it's important not to forget that last year was one of the worst ever
for REITs, and that while absolute valuations look rich, the real estate sector still
screens as attractive to the broader market.
REITs rose for the fourth week in a row last week with a total return of more than 3%,
outperforming the S&P 500 by 259 basis points for the fifth week in a row and the 14th
time this year, Morgan Stanley said.
Real estate was the best of the 11 sub-sectors week over week, up 2% versus a 0.4% gain for
the S&P 500 and is now the third-best performing subsector year-to-date, behind a 47.8% gain in
energy, and 28.0% rise in financials.
The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index increased 4.4% in May, with prices for
every property type in the index rising. The index is now only 1% below pre-COVID levels.
(Herbert Lash)
*****
STOXX 600: WHAT LURKS BENEATH RECORD HIGHS (1146 EDT/1546 GMT)
Looking at the main European benchmarks at the close, one would be tempted to paint a very
positive picture of Europe Inc on this fine day of June 14 2021.
The STOXX 600 and Frankfurt's DAX reached another record high, Paris CAC 40 is partying like
it's 2000.
In London, the FTSE 100 is getting very close to reclaiming its pre-pandemic highs but
there's a lot of grim price action taking place nonetheless due to COVID-19 again.
The Travel and leisure in the UK and by extension in Europe didn't have a pleasant session.
Britain's Boris Johnson is now widely expected to delay by a few weeks the planned easing of
COVID-19 restrictions due to the exponential rise of Delta variant infections.
And while the big macro picture isn't expected to change much, some sectors will be severely
hit.
"It's just four weeks, but for some businesses it will be four weeks too many especially as
there are no guarantees 19 July will really bring an end to restrictions", wrote Danni Hewson,
an analyst at AJ Bell.
"There are many reasons to delay, but delay will bring hardship for some, ruined plans for
others and the end of the line for a few".
On the FTSE 250 mid cap index, Restaurant Group, which owns Wagamama restaurants, fell close
to 5% while pub operator Wetherspoon fell over 3%.
Take a look here at the European Travel and Leisure sector. As you see UK airlines and
entertaining groups are the hardest hit:
While the delay in reopening could be seen as a simple setback, there are growing fears that
continental Europe could face a similar wave of Delta variant infections at the autumn, with
another potential hit to the sector.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
THE SPREE IS ON: CONSUMERS ARE JABBED, FLUSH AND READY TO MINGLE (1102 EDT/1502 GMT)
Having spent over a year walking through the valley of the shadow of COVID, the U.S. economy
is fast approaching its pre-pandemic 'normal.'
In fact, it's precisely 94.6% of normal, according to Oxford Economics' most recent Recovery
Tracker, in which the demand component jumped above levels seen on January 2020, when the
coronavirus was still a distant threat.
"With two-thirds of adults having received one vaccine dose, restaurant bookings neared
pre-pandemic levels, the number of flights rose firmly, and credit card spending heated up,"
writes Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
For a Reuters interactive graphic on worldwide vaccine progress and availability, click here
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access.
By all appearances, that "pent-up" demand analysts have been promising is well afoot as
consumers economically re-engage, their wallets fattened with stimulus and savings.
Just how fat are those wallets?
Many economists view the saving rate - the difference between disposable income and personal
outlays - as a barometer of consumer expectations. While the saving rate has come down since its
April 2020 peak of 33.7%, at 14.9% it remains elevated. And UMich's consumer expectations index
is on an upward trend.
At the same time, consumers have been paying down their credit cards. Total outstanding
revolving credit is down 12.2% to dollar amount not seen in over four years.
The rise in restaurant bookings to which Daco refers is evident in the 0.6% growth in the
"food away from home" segment of May's CPI report, which increased at double the rate of "food
at home," and suggests that demand for a table for two is steadily growing.
Retail sales data shows that in April, retail receipts at dining and drinking establishments
were just 2.2% below pre-pandemic levels, and if the trend has continued through May and into
June, that gap has since been closed.
The Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) provides perhaps the clearest picture of
economic re-engagement. Its data is fresh (the most recent data point is yesterday), and it
shows the number of passengers to remove their shoes and empty their pockets at airport security
is back to where it was before COVID grounded the commercial airline industry.
Airline stocks, however, still have some altitude to recover.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
MAJOR U.S. INDEXES MIXED; FOCUS TURNS TO FED (1013 EDT/1413 GMT)
Major U.S. indexes are mixed with just modest changes in early trade Monday. This as the
focus turns to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is expected to
maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy. This week also brings a
quadruple-witching on Friday, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and
single stock futures expire simultaneously.
Ahead of these events, volatility measures have either been contracting, or remain moribund.
In fact, the CBOE Volatility index ended Friday at its lowest level since February 20,
2020, which was one day after the S&P 500's February 19, 2020 top, and ahead of the market's
swoon into its March 2020 lows.
With Monday's mixed action so far, the VIX is rising slightly and most major S&P 500 sectors
are red. That said, growth is outperforming value. The IGX/IVX ratio is now
hitting a more than 1-month high.
Here is where markets stand in early trade:
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
TAPERING PLAYBOOK (0934 EDT/1334 GMT)
With less than 24 hours left before the Fed kicks off its June policy meeting, markets look
to be fairly relaxed about the impact of any move by the U.S. central bank to start normalizing
policy.
Reflecting the easy mood is JPMorgan who says the upcoming start to the tapering process "is
unlikely to hurt our bullish view on DM equities for 2H".
Part of this optimism is derived after looking at market moves during the latest bond
tapering episode back in 2013.
Here's a summary of what happened then, courtesy of Mislav Matejka, strategist at the U.S.
investment bank:
1. Developed Market equities weathered the process very well, post the small initial wobble.
In
contrast, EM equities fared relatively poorly
2. Bond yields were subdued ahead of the tapering announcement, and moved significantly
higher in
its aftermath, but, interestingly, peaked out once the actual tapering was implemented
3. Ahead of the tapering announcement, internals had a marginal tilt towards Cyclicals vs
Defensives. From the tapering announcement to actual implementation, Cyclicals performed very
strongly vs Defensives. Post the start of tapering, over the ensuing 6-12 months, the leadership
turned decisively more defensive.
(Danilo Masoni)
****
BREXIT: THE SAUSAGE AND THE POUND (0923 EDT/1323 GMT)
Among the key takeaways of the G7 summit in Cornwall over the weekend, one had little to do
with COVID-19, the fight against climate change or the tensions brewing with Russia and China.
"The meeting reminded us that Brexit never goes away", writes Paul Donovan, chief economist
at UBS GWM, who's been referring to the UK's exit from the European Union as a "interminably
tedious" issue for some years now.
The current "sausage war" about checks on chilled meats moving from the island of Great
Britain to Northern Ireland is another example of how Brexit is so full of surprises and
provides endless news cycles.
"Everything has an end but Brexit" was the headline of the daily currency briefing of the FX
team at Commerzbank which looked at how the sausage war could impact the pound.
"If the EU was to become more concrete on its threats in the next few days Sterling would
record further losses", they argued.
Another harsh headline came from George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, who issued a
note on the "The forever-war that is Brexit".
Lagarias, just as the Commerzbank analysts, also focused on how the risk of a trade war
could weigh on the pound.
"We wouldn’t be too surprised if investors question whether the pound, which is still near
post-Brexit highs, is fairly valued, especially as other countries have caught up on
vaccinations".
There is a sense across pundits that finding an acceptable modus operandi for Northern
Ireland is unlikely at the moment and that EU-UK tensions is just part of the new Brexit normal.
"Johnson is stuck in his ultimately unresolvable, yet consciously self-inflicted, dilemma of
wanting to have his cake and eat it too vis-à-vis the EU", wrote Erik F. Nielsen, Group Chief
Economist at UniCredit.
In the meantime, it's fair to say that even with the prospect of a further delay to the
reopening of the British economy, investors are not frantically selling sterling to buy
continental sausages.
Cable is up 0.02% at the moment and the euro is up a mere 0.08% against the pound which has
been doing quite all right lately thank you very much:
Here's some reading on the issue:
EU and UK's 'sausage war' sizzles at G7 as Macron and Johnson spar
Ex-EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: UK reputation at stake in Brexit row
Brexit tensions are a test for Europe, says French minister
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: RENEWED VIGOR (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)
The Nasdaq Composite ended Friday within 0.5% of its April 26 record close and 1%
from its April 29 record intraday high.
Meanwhile, one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength has already been hitting fresh
record highs:
Nasdaq's cumulative net new highs (NNH) (running sum of new highs - new lows), on a
weekly basis, bottomed in early April 2020, and has been trending up, above its 12-week moving
average (WMA), for 55 straight weeks. The measure ended Friday at an all-time high of just over
178.5k vs its 12-WMA at 175.6k.
Looking back over the past 6 years or so, periods when cumulative weekly NNHs were above its
12-WMA have coincided with Nasdaq strength. Conversely, periods when cumulative NNHs were below
the 12-WMA have occurred amid Nasdaq instability.
More recently, since its February 12 peak, which also coincided with the Composite's weekly
closing high, the spread between the measure and its 12-WMA had been sharply deteriorating,
underscoring waning upside momentum.
However, in the wake of a near 5%-IXIC sell off from February 12 to May 21, the spread
bottomed ahead of its zero line, and has now widened for 3 straight weeks.
As long as this new widening trend remains in force, the Composite's renewed vigor may have
legs.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)