Broker snap: BP needs short-term funding solution

Nomura Securities said the market could be bracing itself for what it calls 'a near term credit event around BP', and that the speculation is 'highly damaging' for the embattled oil company."Creating a scenario that puts near-term liquidity (of US$11bn-plus) at risk looks remote; however we recognise that with an uncapped well, hurricane season and continued media focus the market will struggle to get much comfort," suggests Nomura analyst Alastair Syme.The perception of near-term credit risk is of concern, and is likely to lead to constraints around counterparty trading, the attractive roll of drawn commercial paper and the ability to dispose of assets at attractive prices. "Therefore, we see pressure growing on the company to assure sufficient funding to cap the well and meet 'fat-tail' scenarios around near-term expenses," Syme said. Nomura's preferred short term solution for BP would be an equity-linked financing, possibly with a sovereign wealth fund underwriting the issue. "We see equity dilution as countered by the benefit of financial solidity, around which our new 465p/share price target is based," the broker concluded.