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FOREX-Dollar falls as oil attacks send investors to safety

Mon, 16th Sep 2019 01:50

* Attacks on Saudi oil facilities drive risk-off trade

* Dollar weakens as yen, oil-correlated currencies rise

* Fed, BoJ in focus later in the week

SINGAPORE, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The dollar fell whilesafe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied onMonday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilitiesthat disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle Easttensions.

Oil prices surged more than 15% following the strikes on twoplants, including the world's biggest petroleum processingfacility in Abqaiq, knocked out more than 5% of global oilsupply.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility forthe damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly atIran.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% in morning trade inAsia to 1.3224 per dollar. The Norwegian krone rosealmost 0.6% to 8.9363 per dollar.

Both currencies often move together with the oil pricebecause the countries are major oil exporters.

The attacks wiped out last week's ebullient risk appetiteand prompted U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted the UnitedStates was "locked and loaded" for a response.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc each lifted atleast 0.3% on the dollar. The yen hit 107.60 perdollar and the franc touched $0.9871. Gold jumpedby 1%.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was 0.2%lower at 98.053.

"If that part of the reason for last week's fall in oil andimprovement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of JohnBolton's sacking ... and thoughts this was a precursor to someform of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is nolonger valid," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NationalAustralia Bank in Sydney.

Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome ofcentral bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week andcrucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that coulddetermine the rates outlook in the Antipodes.

Much of the risk appetite on display last week was driven bysigns of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sidesoffering olive branches ahead of trade talks next month.

However with few solid signs of progress, sentiment remainsfragile.

"Geopolitical risks and central bank rhetoric remain keydrivers of risk this week," Australia and New Zealand BankingGroup analysts said in a note.

In the United States, investors who had begun trimmingexpectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesdayare now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.

Markets also expect the Bank of Japan to push interest ratesfurther into negative territory, with a third of economistspolled by Reuters last week expecting stimulus to be ramped up.

Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.

China's premier on Monday said maintaining national economicgrowth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing.

Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Mondayare likely to give further insight into the health of theworld's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan was flat inmorning trade offshore.

The pound held last week's gains, as fears ofBritain crashing out of the European Union without a divorcedeal ebbed, while a news report on Friday also raised hopes thata deal could be secured by Oct. 31.

It steadied just under its highest since July 25 at $1.2491.The euro was steady at $1.1077.(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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