Canada Employment Change March 11 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA

March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 127.5
Unemployment Rate 6.2

Today's trade plan

It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.

I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.

Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.

Tradable pairs

USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.