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Hi P3T3R, I think17 Mill is pretty certain for this year. However 21 Mill for next year is I think to low. The US operation will have some 8 months under its belt by year end and could be a real asset next year. The new IONA test will have some 11/12 months input too. Add in the new products so far this year with perhaps more to come plus new ones next year and I would have thought a 50% uplift next year will be pretty hard to avoid. Could even get up to 30 Mill! One of our strengths is the fairly stable cost of running the company and margins should improve with turnover. Gosh it just gets better!
Remember, they expect to breach £15M+ ...
FORECAST (from digitalLook/Sharecast)
Year Ending Revenue(£m) Pre-tax(£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Growth Div Yield
2020-03-31 16.99 -0.65 -0.09p 0.0 n/a 0% 0.00p 0.0%
2021-03-31 20.90 0.78 0.10p 144.6 n/a 0% 0.00p 0.0%
2022-03-31 24.73 2.31 0.30p 48.4 0.2 199% 0.00p 0.0%
Pretty sure I read somewhere they expect to achieve the forecast £17m ...
P3T3R: I'm basing my (eager) forecast on the basis that YGEN expect to reach or exceed 15M+. This is a factor of 400% on the previously quoted £3.9M (for 78k IONA tests). This is a large increase over a short period; and given that the IONA test may shortly cover over 90% of the Global 'Sequencing Platforms' seems to infer a much greater take-up potential.
given the estimate of 50% annual growth and assuming YGEN will/should capture their current 'share' of that growth; I think a proposed estimate of £20M-£24M is 'cautious' to say the least. Remember, they expect to breach £15M+. Their previous Financial statement indicates "Organic Growth (which excludes Elucigene input); But, I consider this to be inline with the 50% 'growth' and doesn't cover 'Expansion' - which I see as two different things here for YGEN.
EXPANSION (and DIVERSIFICATION) is where the big increase is going to come from. Although any acquisitions etc are going to reduce overall profit, they can only be achieved 'realistically' from substantial increase in Revenue; which in turn spurs the associated needed funding.
Of course this is all in my own opinion but even if they breach the £24M as you indicate it will still be great going.
Maybe I should err on the side of caution - lets say £30M-£35M :-) :-) :-)
£50m+ would be fantastic, but slightly over-reaching.
I think forecasts on DigitalLook are in region of ~£20m next year rising to £24m (?) the year after. Tried to confirm, but site appears to be down for maintenance.
Obviously I am hoping that you are right, and that the forecasts are erring on the side of caution ...
The only thing that I would say, this I believe ygen have stated that the margin on the NIPT test is now 60% !
Littlegiddings: Thanks for your guidance/support.
Following on, I've been digging further and trying to gain better insight/understanding as to where YGEN sits regarding the IONA IPR, market opportunities etc.
So for myself and fellow shareholders here's the general position I see YGEN have:-
Thus far it seems (maybe others can clarify/confirm/refute)....
1) YGEN finally ceded legal proceedings with Illumina on the basis they license NIPT patents from Illumina AND modify their IONA technology to work on the Illumina Genetic Sequencing (NGS) platform. (Illumina receives a royalty for each test performed).
2) Combined with the above YGEN have collaboration with Thermo Fisher and this gives them access to the "Sequencing Platforms" that account for 90% of sample testing GLOBALLY. (NOTE: I would point to my previous references to the Sengenics Sequencing Array which is different and which YGEN don't include - yet?).
3) NIPT tests each year risen to 4mln from none four years ago - 2.6% of the Estimated 150mln births worldwide each year.
4) Previous research inferred Market growth in NIPT tests expected to be 50% pa (I think this is VERY under-estimated).
5) NIPT test costs typically £300-£600 each (dependant on type of testing etc).
6) There are 26 Million births in India alone - (c.w. 680,000 in UK); This is where the rapid growth in revenue will initially occur - YGEN aren't the only player - but collaboration with Thermo Fisher & Illumina gives solid foundation.
7) Q1-Q2 2019 YGEN achieved approx £3.9M revenue primarily based on IONA related tests (78k tests). This indicates a rough income of £102 per test. (seems like a lot of the £300-£600 test costs are swallowed up elsewhere?).
Given the above there appears no barrier for YGEN to establish an Exponential growth in revenue and SP.
YGEN should be able to easily exceed the proposed 17M revenue estimates shortly.
I would also like to think that YGENs revenue could easily run up towards 50M+ in the next financial year - if not more depending on expansion, competition etc.
Hence my view that there also needs to be a period of rapid acquisition/partnership in order to rationalise and condense market players etc.
This share therefore appears to be an absolute Stonker of a gift for my Pension pot - glad I came across it at such a Major Pivotal point in its development :-) :-)
P.S. In the Netherlands, ALL pregnancies are now screened. I expect this to be implemented in other countries, (particularly UK & USA - China?), as the benefit to Health care costs become much clearer; hence why I believe the proposed 50% annual growth may only be an initial (very low estimate). I expect it to increase substantially over the next 2-5 years.
Any ( "constructive") feedback gratefully received (negative or positive)
Don't be disheartened, bottom (hope you don't mind my referring to you thus!) These boards seem to attract types more interested in dissing fellow posters than in learning anything - and who aren't terribly good at either. Please go on posting details of competition you've discovered; it's a most under-researched area, probably because it takes a lot of time and effort, but is essential.
After nearly 50 years of (mainly) successful investing, I've been called a few things, but "MM appointed" plumbs new depths of conspiracy theory paranoia. And I'll accept no patronising - "....we should advise on better ways to research" - from someone who believes "there are no negatives with this company" (Aim anyone?) There is, sadly, no such company, and anyone who believes otherwise shouldn't invest in shares.
More than one poster has told me I can't research, after I referred to (32?) countries - note the punctuation. They seem not to have realised the irony that, if my figure is too low, my point becomes MORE valid.
Lets look at the latest figures we have in what is almost certainly a rapidly changing situation. The 2nd Dec. 6-monthly report refers to 60 countries, against a TO of £7.8M, an average of £130K per country - and some countries will be well below that. Now, before the eagle-eyed among you tell me that the 60 referred to "now", and not to period end, and that that could invalidate my figure, I'd point out that 2 customers represent 27% of sales (FY report). This on its own would more than balance out any distortion. Basic business textbooks tell you that chasing too many markets too soon CAN lead both to inefficiencies and a big drain on cash. Whether this is or will be the case I, of course, can't tell, but pointing out the danger is surely sensible.
Littlegiddings : I agree with you that in fact many other Users on here seek to ramp this company up just a little too much while attacking and deriding so-called 'newcomers' such as ourselves (they now who they are and should be ashamed of such actions).
I believe you and 'Bakky' have both seen what I have seen in that YGEN needs 'Diversification' in a crowded market-place which is filled with much bigger players.
The good news is that the market place is quite large and so there is room for 'expansion' of YGEN's original product line - but as pointed out by BAKKY its clearly nevcessazry for YGEN to expand their portfolio via acquisition and/or collaboration.
This is why I wanted to raise the topic of the likes of Sengenics' They are based in Asia and have already embedded themselves with a major US player (Lifecodexx). The good thing here is that Sengenics is still a private company and so more likely open to discussions with the likes of YGEN.
And, although Mr 'Florida' seems to think of us as "MM-appointed" 'guests' (whatever the hell he wants ot imply there), I do agree with him (reluctantly - bitter taste in mouth) that Q1-Q2 will be a clear 'stepping stone' for YGEN if/once the IONA-Illumina Platform proceeds.
But, all other investors (including 'Florida') need to understand that any Biotech company that tries to persist with a 'limited' portfolio (which is precisely what YGEN have at present) will only begin to be squeezed out. This is partucluarly important as they are now licensed by Illumina who will undoubtedly look at YGEN in the future when new licensing terms are to be agreed.
As 'Bakky' has stated, Lyn Rees has CLEARLY and UNAMBIGUOUSLY stated in the last report that YGEN will be seeking to diversify as well as capture market-share.
So for me I'm with Investors who want to see YGEN establish a clear business roadmap of diversification and acquisition.
Finally, Yes, the acquisition of Elucigene was probably one of the most pertinent and productive things the YGEN BOD could have done. I also agree that Elucigene will be one of the biggest money-spinners for YGEN.
P.S. I know how to do research for myself. Having petulant know-it-alls trying to imply that myself and others cannot research is quite frankly idiotic. Research also involves reviewing the likes of these comment boards and ignoring the 'Trolls', 'Bashers' and self-appointed gurus :- If you don't like my comments then you know the answer - filter me and good luck with your own research.
Hi Little, caution can be a good thing or act as a brake. 1st Half revenue was up 97%. Full years revenue should more than double last years. New IONA test will roll out at the start of our financial year to provide a major boost for next year. The US company will have some 8 months revenue input this year and could provide a major revenue stream next year. Products now number over 30 with more on the way - this is more than "apparent progress" this is actual progress!
PS if you think we sell in 32 countries you need to revisit your research!
Selling in 60 countries and some thirty different products.
don't forget the impressive product solely for Illumina will hit the market in a few months. Also I think there will be more acquisitions ahead as Lyn Rees nearly always alludes to it whenever he can it seems. Plenty of uplift here methinks.
When our NIPT test becomes available on the Illumina platform (H1 2020), we more than double our potential market and become the only platform agnostic NIPT test ...
We also have oncology tests under development ..
If anyone hasn’t watched the recent videos, or viewed presentations, they’re available here ... It gives you a chance to hear the CEO in action too!
https://www.yourgene-health.com/investors/company-information/investor-presentations#
Hello Bottom_Feeder
I've been thinking of taking a small position here (always long-term holder), impressed by the apparent progress over the last year or so. But there are always negatives as well! In this case, we're looking at a pretty small outfit, with not long ago only the NIPT product to effectively sustain them. And as you say, there are lots of competitors. Having some sales in (32?) different countries isn't desperately impressive if their sum total doesn't add up to a can of beans - and operating in 32 countries means costs.
But the key may lie in the acquisition of Delta (Elucigene), not their relatively mature market in LIPT. Reading through all the RNS's for the last 2 years as part of my research, I have a feeling that senior management knows that - and it's importance was reflected in the Bionow award.
Now we need to see how this will progress, but the market for the Elucigene products, or their developed successors, may well have a lot more potential.
I was expecting a much better 'break' than this to be be honest too.
I really can't see why this SP isn't moving up?
The company is progressing their business plan excellently for an AIM company. They are certainly heading to achieve and even exceed the projected £17M and their 1-2 year market uptake is looking rather nice indeed.
I've done a bit more research and the NIPT market is somewhat awash with big players. The other 'minor' hurdle is that the rest of the Asian market is already being taken up by other players - see links below regarding for more info plus reference to Sengenics (it would be nice to gain other investors input on YourGene's statement about further 'Collaboration/acquisitions' to expande their Asian market?? - It seems that Sengenics is a fantastic 'partnership-cum- acquisition given their portfolio and presence?).
this first link is a REALLY good overview of the birth of NIPT (I hope it proves a worthy read)
https://www.asianscientist.com/2019/02/print/nipt-liquid-biopsy-grail-dennis-lo/
Look at Chapter 7 in this TOC link for th NIPT report that provides a list of the major players - Notable entires are Illumina (owns over 80% of patents etc -apparently) & Sequenom, as well as Lifecode..... But...... no mention of Yourgene?
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/noninvasive-prenatal-testing-market/toc
https://lifecodexx.com/sengenics-and-lifecodexx-partner-to-offer-nipt-in-southeast-asia/
https://www.sengenics.com/
Hope the above links provide a good reading and insight to possible market players.
Sengenics is currently a Private company but I've written to them to see if there is a possibility that they are open to potential 'private investment' funding and at what level..... hoping it proves fruitful. My view is they are in bed with "Lifecodexx" and covering a very large market; as well as having multiple other platforms/tech such as their KREX technology - see following link for Sengenics growth indicators:-
https://www.sengenics.com/release/sengenics-ramps-up-for-further-growth-announces-expansion-of-its-sales-and-business-development-teams-in-the-usa-europe-and-asia/
So..... What's the opinion of fellow investors on here regarding Sengenics and possible Yourgene collaboration?
Or any other input regarding research etc would be very welcome :-)