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Sold these at around a 10% profit this morning to finance purchase of something else.
Hello 1GW_. I have not re invested in STU simply because the board have entirely removed themselves from the current global crisis. In my mind each and every one of the board have put their fingers in their ears and closed their eyes in the hope that by the final results day in June all will have returned to normal. I would be very surprised if revenue is not adversely affected in February and March partly as a result of supply chain issues. We are proceeding towards a post CV world that will be significantly different from what we became used to. Furthermore, will the buyers of Findel Education take this opportunity to re negotiate the purchase price ? What was reasonable value pre CV, suddenly looks very expensive in the post CV world. Someone has clearly been acquiring shares in recent days hence the rise but this doesn’t necessarily mean that good news is imminent. The last trading update was the half year results on the 16th December, global business has changed immeasurably since then. Let’s hope the next update is good news but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is bad.
Nice to see the bounce. I would have thought they could give us a trading update. There must be a concern around what the lockdown is going to mean for their bad debt provisions, as well as the uncertainty over the completion of the Education sale - was there any break fee payable if the buyers walk away or if completion doesn't occur by some backstop date? On the positive side, now that China appears to be getting back to somewhere near normal that should be good for the supply chain, and as a mainly digital retailer I would expect them to be benefitting in terms of increased online demand.
So lots of uncertainty, some likely to be downside and other upside. Most other companies seem to be updating the market, why not Studio?
Here compared to the boohoo sp,gees,anyway im well prepared to see this flu bug out,markets near enough always bounce back,took 4 years after the financial crash in 2008,everything crossed.
I offer my fellow investors an apology. I took fright last Thursday morning and pressed the sell all button. I think that caused the share price to fall. The board cannot continue to maintain a silence, I will not buy back until I hear from them as to the current supply chain position and the progress in trying to convince the CMA to accept the sale of Findel Education. I think that our buyer is still in a position to withdraw from the purchase so that too needs clarifying.
Whilst there is no denying the potential effect Coronovirus may have on us all, the market is behaving somewhat irrationally and there are some very attractive valuations now on excellent and well run companies. In these times it’s difficult to know when to buy but 1GW’s timing here has been impeccable in the past.
I hope he is right this time as we are now In the territory that SPD bid previously which has to be a concern.
With a virus, at least we know it will pass and then a degree of order will be resumed, it’s just going to be a painful period ahead in the near term.
Enough is enough (I hope). So I've started buying back today, picking some up at just under 170p.
Coupled with our board that dont tend to tell us anything and a virus thats trying to destroy us all,no wonder why the sp has collapsed.
I’m not sure that our buyer can change the terms of the deal as I believe they have entered into a conditional contract which has been approved by shareholders. The rejection by the CMA however would allow the buyer a route out. I don’t think the Corona virus situation on its own can affect the deal.
I think you are right in saying that our price is being dragged down by the wider market, indeed we are almost back at pre half year report/Findel Education sale value.
I really hope we see an end to this wretched disease in the short term but the WHO and world governments in general all seem pretty gloomy about it at the moment.
Education is an interesting situation.
My only concern here is if the purchaser decides to pull out or try and use Coronavirus to renegotiate the price. Either way, we need to accept every outcome as a possibility.
I don’t believe there has been a ‘pricing in’ of the market expecting bad news Skindle, more we have been dragged down in value as has every other company in the past week, so in the meantime it’s tin hats on and hope this pesky virus melts away as swiftly as possible and we limit the damage as otherwise we could see some major coordinated fiscal policy to steer away from worldwide recession albeit the room for manoeuvre is pretty limited.
The one saving grace here is that it did not happen in the lead up to Christmas....
I agree Ejackson, oversold if the CMA allow the Findel Education transaction to proceed. It looks to me however that the market is pricing in for a rejection and bad news about our Chinese suppliers. Bid price now under 200 pence.
It will be interesting to see at which point the market turns as my sense is that, notwithstanding the supply and demand implications of Coronavirus, we must be at or very close to the 'Oversold' territory.
Interesting statement from the chief executive of Rolls Royce today. He is saying that during the recent disruption in China the company used existing inventory to continue manufacturing but that Chinese suppliers for the company were all now back up and running again. I hope that is an indication that the worst is now over in China.
Sold some more today, given the general carnage. Happy to keep my remaining holding now I think and add on any significant further weakness from here.
Yes I also believe that there will be problems with obtaining stock from China but I am hoping the negative impact of this will be offset by the declaration that the conditions associated with the sale of Findel Education have been satisfied.
In the death spiral with no end in sight to this ruddy virus,someone find a cure and quick.
I seem to get some right and some wrong skindle, like most of us I expect.
I've sold some more today. They could be a beneficiary of more people shopping online rather than "risking" mingling with others in the shops, and of course Mike Ashley could always do the decent thing and make a proper bid, but I think the more likely nearish-term event is some kind of (negative) update on the supply chain implications of what's happening in China.
Our esteemed co investor has an uncanny ability to judge the right moments to buy shares in STU and the right moments to sell. I take my hat off to you. Could you let me know please when we can next expect an uplift.
Don’t blame you. Corona Virus will almost certainly impact our PBT.
And sold some more today, same reason.
I was going to post, another day with no news, another holder losing confidence. Pleased to hear you are still positive 1GW_. I would be surprised if we were not to hear any more news until final results day but it is quite possible.
I've trimmed my position a bit, reducing exposure in case of any supply chain impact. Seems a long time until the results are going to be published, although hopefully some positive Education sale news might come sooner.
Agreed 1GW.
The future looks bright notwithstanding bottoming out the customer redress programme. Will Smith did reference the strength of the numbers in the crucial Black Friday/ Christmas period.
As for the SP, I think the market feels the same way and is keeping us on a relatively firm footing which should act as a strong base from which we can move upwards as and when the results and sale of Education come to fruition.
As for the supply chain and Corona Virus, I think this will be reported on more generally and then specifically should it become a material issue. Its clearly not helpful but to what extent is affecting everyone, only time will tell.
Thanks Ejackson. Looking back at the 3Q comments in the interims published on 16th Dec, if that was the TU, then it was very encouraging, suggesting record performance over Black Friday and pre-Christmas without having had to engage in excessive discounting:
"Record sales from Studio in peak Black Friday and Christmas period"
"We saw more customers waiting for Black Friday and Christmas than in previous years but when they arrived post period-end, they did so in record numbers. Record levels of online sessions in a single day (781k on Black Friday), daily dispatches exceeding 100k parcels for the first time ever, and product sales in the last 11 weeks up 10% on prior year underlines Studio's digital growth trajectory."
'We are pleased to have reported a strong increase in Adjusted PBT* in the first half, followed in Q3 by a record sales performance from Studio during our peak seasonal trading period.
We know that Studio's customers look for value all year round, so we do not need to chase promotional trends to maintain our market position. "
Thank you for that Ejackson. The approval by the (UK)CMA of the Findel Education sale is far from a mere formality as JD Sports recently found out to their cost following their purchase of Footasylum. I really do think we need to hear from the board as to the operational status of our Chinese suppliers.