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I doubt we'll see those levels with out a buy back . Zero debt and divi reinstated would help propel towards 1.5 billion mcap on TO of 750mil +
I'd be out by then too.
Anyone ever see this getting back up there?
What would have to be true to be so?
International franchise of Wagamama on ‘heat’ I would guess and some major concession deals. I would hope UK portfolio esp. B&P created the cashflow for such expansion limiting debt. // For such I would guess we’d need a new Exec and perhaps Board : existing haven’t presented such enterprise but then they’ve been in challenging times. Anyway thoughts welcome. I’d probably be out well before 200p in any case
It’s a very profitable little chain, expanding into airport franchise branches, and has more cash than its market cap. Used to be 25p before covid on less revenue and profit, now 5p.
“ We were delighted to appoint Nick Ayerst as CEO in October. Nick brings a wealth of experience from his previous roles at LEON and The Restaurant Group. The Board and executive management are focused on reinvesting in the business and its people, building strong foundations for growth.”
Who is COM
COM is a really undervalued small restaurant chain.
More cash than cap, and growing fast. £7m cap
Group revenue increased 49.7% to £31.0m (2021 restated: £20.7m).
· Gross profit up 44.3% to £24.4m (2021 restated: £16.9m).
· Adjusted EBITDA* before highlighted items of £6.3m (2021: £6.4m).
· Cash and cash equivalents balance at the period end of £9.9m and a net cash position of £7.7m (2021: £7.1m).
B&P freehold alone valued at £160m (2022) in AR. So business must be worth a significant sum over. x2? - hold on to it. Good cover for Waga. I’m expecting B&P to smash it at 1/2 year results
More I think about it. More I am starting to think Brunning and Price is a better performing asset than Waga and more insulated from economic headwinds. Waga has international growth potential and speaks, I would think, to a broadly younger more socially conscious audience : they are actually good counterweights to each other from a risk / opp perspective. Bring on Sept
Thank you Davde and Gravenhurst. At Gravenhurst I think the Brunning & Price valuation at £200m is very low. Per other posts it’s probably insulated from COLC issues. I also think the write downs to date in property limit major write downs in future. In any case most purchasers will be interested in revenue and margin. Hopefully we’ll be able to make a better assessment in Sept of unit breakdowns. My concern is Kirk got the kick cos he got hedging wrong. Sept will advise. In interim here’s to all divisions smashing it out of the park esp. concessions that should put perform YoY
If we all think all the businesses less Waga is worth £200 million and Waga in this market is worth £200 million then the total per share equates to 53p a share. With net debt at 21p a share we are currently trading at a premium.
The company needs to start making a profit which can only be achieved when it decides to stop writing down over priced assets.
The doesn’t seem soon looking at their balance sheet.
I paid far too much for this stock as a hedge against selling a small restaurant chain in 2021 thinking I had sold too cheap.
The original decision was spot on, which I am glad about, I now trade this stock through CFD’s a seller above 45p and a buyer in middle to late thirties.
I hope the optimists here are right and my original hedge comes right ( stuck in ISA’s average price 65p) but I really think that a net pretax profit of 10% on a turnover of £1billion, without any write downs, is some way off. That would a dividend and a p/e of about 10 and a yield of 5% on my original price of 65p which would make me much more comfortable.
Ephemeral the utility hedging provides cost certainty and it looks like they paid £11m for that certainty over three years versus the 2022 prices. For me it was a prudent move unless I am misunderstanding the statement re this, quite possible!
The main benefit of the the group is that it's diversified brands appeal to different segments of the casual dining market so your prediction may well be correct, we will find out soon enough, here is hoping we get a sustained re-rate of the SP thereafter!
To me there’s definitely an underestimation of the Brunning & Price brand, they’re “Cheshire jet set” type pubs which despite the current cost of living crisis still pull in the customers as their customer base isn’t cash strapped families, it’s the older and more affluent customer who seem relatively unaffected. The pubs around here (Chester/North wales) are always busy regardless of how prices have crept up
At Davde. Well put. I think the pubs may prove to more profitable than Waga. I suspect pubs enjoy higher average spend? Concessions should be killing it too. Maybe -oddly- the case that Waga is 3rd in performance of these three? Bring on Sept. My concern is our hedged energy prices
Think TMR need to do more research and analysis before expressing opinion on future strategy. RTN debt level is circa £220m, excluding leases. The freehold value of the pub estate (circa 50% freehold) is worth £160m. That would imply the pubs, leisure and concessions business is only worth £60m which seems low. They are assuming the majority of profits come from Waga and the remaining businesses are all performing poorly, segmental analysis will tell in September if that is true or not. The proposal to buy out US franchises and expand Waga outlets in other countries may have merit and RTN is expanding where opportunities appear. What is unclear is how far can the expansion of Waga go? Interesting no mention of taking private unlike other activists.
The wife went to collect a Take Away over the weekend and reported a very busy restaurant and the queues remain a constant.
The recent value of 200mil for pubs, add the Waga (IMO) 500mil the market cap should be upwards of 750Million
STRONG BUY
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tmr-capital-ptc-limited-strategic-193800108.html
I think we’re hanging around here until Sept update. Shame really as I thought interim update was positive and warranted a step up. Don’t see any activist shareholder action over August (hols) but as it happens that’s sometimes the best time to catch prey off-guard. Where do we think SP will be this time next year? I’d like to say ~100p but I’m always over optimistic so it’s probably 55-60p? Fingers crossed
I have taken all my sell limits off. I think this will drift up to 45p possibly 50p again
Don’t think it’s that great. Ability to grow it internationally is.
Waga is a jewel.
a diamond.
i think this is just beginning.
200million in the hand is worth 400million in the bush! Get rid of them.
I get the feeling the BOD think the portfolio dogs are performing quite well, running a profit and will command a price individually or a share price re rate by September. Maybe they think that B&P is worth 200mil on its own, and are willing to take a risk on the dross as its not worth anything anyway.
Frankie and Bennies and Chiquitos are utter garbage. Getting rid of those and the lease and other liabilities just leaving us with Waga would be amazing. I believe in, and regularly eat at, Wagas and have done for years. Everything else in the stable, as I’ve said before, needs to be shot.
Then if Frankie and Bennie’s is profitable combined with B&P should fetch at least 40p a share
We know that all parts of the business have a similar level of profitability, (F&B) after recent closures, this was stated as the reason for not doing segmental accounting previously. This will be confirmed or not, when they show segmental accounts in the September interims.
Does anyone think Frankie and Benny’s is a liability
Isn't this a bit cheap then, all things considered?
Hopefully we get some sport here over the next few days/weeks.