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https://www.trustnet.com/Investments/Article.aspx?id=201701311006055921V Looks like an IPO for Newgate here with LXI Reit looking to raise 200m. In other news RNS for Porta to confirm the issue of the 12m shares today.
Still positive here. Still buyers in background mopping up shares. What do they know that we don't? It's as Toad suggests. Porta seem to be winning a lot of good contracts but they are simply not telling us the story. Maybe to encourage buyers in background to buy larger stakes? I think the TU will be mid Feb now. They always time RNS 2-4 weeks apart. They seem in no rush to release it.
Anyone got a bucket to bail out this share and stop it sinking further?
The movements in the SP appears purely based on shares trades and not based on any news. Unless someone knows something we don't?? My guess is a large 2-4m sell trade has gone through and may appear in next few days. If someone has bought up a lot of these shares we could well see a TR-1 appear at some point. All guess work really. Will be interesting to follow share pattern in next few days to see if this seller has cleared all their stock. One reason I suggest this is there was no great surge of buys today. Of course why would the buyers in the background want to push up the SP? Better to build up a stake on a low SP as people sell from nerves. Let's see how this plays out. A TU sooner would really help calm investors nerves here.
....turnt out to be a crock of shat.....
Worth a bit less now.
The good thing is the mkt cap is only £13m so the company doesn't have to do much for us to be off to the races. The management are also lavishly 'incentivised' for that to happen. The fact is though that they have stagnated for a couple of years. If you take acquisitions out of the 2015 figures then there is little growth and Newgate UK has gone backwards. Needs some of these so called big names to perform.
Figures compared to H1 last year. The cost oif sales for 2016 are 600k more than last year. 4.04m (2016) vs 3.46m (2015) With gross profit down about 150k compared to H1 2015. 13.75m vs 13.9m (2015). So on the front of it costs have risen 600k for 2015 while gross profits actually fell slightly in 2016. Probably due to impact of Brexit. Headline Ebidta was actually 400k lower in first half of 2016. 0.935m (2016) vs 1.33m (2015). Probably due to Brexit vote, the 600k higher costs and a mix of one offs in both years. So numbers to tot up the 1.9m loss. -631k (operating loss) (Includes -1.323m D and A otherwise +692k) -602k (Less finance costs) - 387k (discontinued operations.) - 310k non controlling interests. With other small costs you reach a 1.9m loss. So one offs here will remove 1.7m of these losses. (D and A and that -0.397m figure. Leaving a 0.2m actual loss. So cash has barely shifted. Unclear what impact the discontinued operation loss had on cash. Cash and cash equivalents have only gone down 150k according to the accounts here. Which goes to prove a lot of these losses are purely on paper. The money is still in the bank. If they really wanted to they could use some of this to pay down debts? How debt has been figured out is another matter. The positives for 2017. Payments to non controlling interests should fall as Porta take a higher % of these overseas operations We know currency fluctuation could add 250-350k+ to profit. From what Toad has said they do seem to be winning and retaining new clients.H1 accounts mentions a number of new clients. If they can refinance the loans at 4-6% then this would add nearly 600-800k to Porta's bottom line. At present this seems to be some way off as they have just reissued one of the loans for another year. If they can refinance and they keep D and A figures minimal why couldn't 2017 be a profitable year for Porta? It would only take a small swing in business to make Porta profitable. Let's see what the trading statement shows in next few weeks. 2016 H2 figures could be very interesting if they can turn this around. 4 month wait for them. Overall I am not too worried here. There is a decent business here. It just needs to come out of hiding behind all these loss figures.
Actually he used to work for Bell Pottinger. Got that bit wrong. Need to read the articles better. http://www.prweek.com/article/1421351/newgate-communications-takes-bell-pottinger-veteran-david-telling-senior-role?utm_content=buffer04fca&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
I wonder if Gavin was resposnible for helping David Telling join Porta here? They both used to work at MHP. I have no doubt that Gavin as CEO of Newgate is helping to mould a new team at Porta. Steffan was the starting brick but Gavin is no doubt helping to pull in some very experienced names to the Porta team. We saw the new hires for the Public Affairs team. We also had Charlie Chichester last May. Now someone with global strategic communication skills with a lot of blue chip company experience. This clearly shows Porta intent to get more blue chip clients and be more of a Global player. The fact that so many senior hires are joining can only be a good sign? Especially if they bring across clients. If Porta were struggling would they really be making all these hires?? I think Porta could be set for a year of growth. Trading statement wise. Previously they have ranged from late Jan to mid Feb. I wonder if they will actually go for early Feb some time. They seem in no rush to get any news out here. The website has also not been updated lately. PR timing maybe? Hmmmm.
New hire. David Telling. Looks to be another big industry name to help Porta attract the blue chip clients. Wonder what clients he bought with him? http://www.gorkana.com/2017/01/newgate-appoints-strategic-adviser-david-telling/
He has not been very active on here. His last post on LSE was almost a month ago. Then again there has been very little news to comment on. I hope he is okay. Couple of small sells on isdx. 11k and 33k. Tiny really. Market is so quiet on Porta. Most likely due to lack of stock and no one selling in large volumes. That and no news. Fingers crossed trading update in next 3 weeks.
We haven't had the pleasure of Adastra's input on this BB for quite some time - I do hope he's all right.
'Redleaf Communications has been appointed financial PR adviser for Anglo Pacific Group plc. Anglo Pacific is listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and focuses on royalties connected with the mining of natural resources. http://www.gorkana.com/2017/01/redleaf-communications-appointed-by-anglo-pacific-group/
Closer to 1m profit in Aus. Hk and Singapore made up the rest of the 2m with help of Redleaf. That 400k figure is too high.
I tend not to account for the effect on equity as it is a one off. Last year the Aussies made a £2m profit so the effect of exchange rate should be about £400k in a full year, plus another £100k for the increase in equity. I tend to look at the attributable profit, which was -£1.9m at the interims. If you take off discontinued operations and amortisation it reduces to a marginal loss. What I would like them to do is announce a profit after all costs for the year, which they did a couple of years ago. That would be nice and indicate a really good H2/16. I think the time for excuses and protracted calculations to show a profit have gone.
For H1 effect of exchange rate was £81,510 according to the accounts. So H2 will be much higher as that is when the pound fell heavily. So exchange rate could see at least an additional 150-200k gain for h2? 250k for year is not unreasonable? The effect on equity on these firms is where the big gain comes from as stated in my post below. 500k maybe? So 800k overall would not be impossible?
How do you calculate £800k to the bottom line from exchange rate movements?
Just looking at currencies this morning and despite many talking down Brexit I do feel that PTCM will be a major beneficiary simply due to exchange rates £800,000 straight to the bottom line is major Not sure if the trading update will reflect this. Overall I do believe the tide is turning and my recommendation to anyone is Buy now
All these buy trades and yet no shift in price? Unless the 4.81 trades were actually sells? If they are all buys then 5p and above can't be too far off.
It's always worth rereading last years accounts. As this give a lot of info on what might happen this year. One document they do provide is the effect on a 5% swing in currency effect on profit. For Australian dollar a 5% swing is worth £73,852 to Porta in profit. At present the swing is close to 24%. If that was to remain for the full year that is worth nearly 350k to Porta. There would also be a 80k gain from HK from Currency. Little impact on Singapore. A small loss of 7k vs Euro for each 5%. Effect on Equity for Singapore, Aus and Hong kong collectively is worth good money for Porta. 43k for each 5% (Aus)(+24% vs £) 30k for each 5%. (Sing)(+16% vs £.) and 52k (HK) (+21% vs £.). So equity wise these businesses have gained nearly 500k based on pound losing value. Euro is a 25k drop for each 5%. We also know the Asian businesses have grown 11% so far so these figure must be much higher now. Given Toad's comments I wonder if these figures could be higher than 11%? The results also indicate we have rights to buy 6% more of Singapore each year. We currently own 44% of this business. Not sure when and if they plan to do this. At AGM they suggested they intended to increase all ownership of foreign businesses to 80%. Redleaf appears to be 100%. However Redleaf is marked in for after the full year results. So June- September again. Not sure what their plans for middle east business are. Again all these pod businesses are making good money so increasing ownership helps Porta's bottom line. Not worked out the numbers for these. We paid out 902k to non controlling parties last year. Reducing this by 70-80% long term will help hugely for Porta's share holders.. Overall could see some interesting impact of full year results from the above. Either way the above can make a big impact. Sure we have given away equity but long term this business will be generating a good profit. The above only reconfirms why this is such a strong buy.
The more I look at this it seems so undervalued. 160k of buys today. 5p on no news seems easily passable.
That sounds very promising Toad. I had noticed in H1 they seemed to be winning quite a few new contracts. The news in H2 had dried up. Albeit the Public Affair hires gave them a few new clients. However like most firms they don't always announce new clients. If you look at Newgate Website and other sites you will see they are actively hiring now. Most of these hires seem due to growth. They are currently looking to employ an in house recruitment manager. At first I thought this was to replace someone who had left but it may be a new position? All these kind of indicators are good. With PR sometimes hiring the best people will get you the best clients. I have no doubt Gavin, Steffan and other new staff are leading the revival at Porta. Some/all of the big hires may have made bought clients with them. So I am not too worried about their cost. At present the share price seems to still be staying at a peak of 5p. With good news this could easily push much higher to 6-7p short term. 10p+ long term. As and when directors start buying the share will surge as there appears to be very little stock about. Overall not too worried about the lack of news here.
Some mates work for the Group and indeed, as you say, some intel can be garnered from following social media. Also I know some of their competitors and the feedback is that Porta are winning and retaining some good clients. They are sure recruiting like mad. Lets hope they are controlling those staff costs - some of those guys don't come cheap. You say lack of trades is not a worry but the stock won't move unless the story is told. We need buyers. Newgate et al do it for clients but it seems to be the cobbler's children syndrome. Agree on loan cost. Bloody loan sharks would be cheaper.
Good news if trading is pretty good? Where did you get that news? I would not expect news from Porta on trading unless it is significantly below or above market expectations. If you look at firm's like cello and Huntsworth they do very few announcements. Porta do have an active Twitter account which can be informative. Lack of trades is not a worry here. No one is really selling. We still have many buyers in background mopping up stock. I have no idea why directors are not buying here. Key thing now is for Porta to sort out the loan cost. 12% is way too high. Waiting game for the trading update.