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I would not offer advice Barrieprov - unlike Baron Rothchild (allegedly) “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”
If I had more faith in PFG I might take the Barons advice. For me for now the middle ground for me is sit tight.
GLA
Yes they’re down into 160s so I’m in stop loss territory but will wait to see how they close and only sell 500 for now which will crystallise a staggering loss of c £1,000 on that tranche which I’m most reluctant to do but can’t take the risk of the shares going down to zero
If there’s bad news then the question is has anyone leaked that to the market or is it simply no news is bad news?
In other words if you don’t tell the market you’re on course to make £100m in the full year is the assumption you won’t and then shares are fair value at £1,50??
GLA as DYOR seems difficult when there’s no info
The street is heading down a second day so I’m expecting banks and PFG will probably slip further as it seems to be tarred with same brush though never goes ip when banks recover.
It’s almost as though the market doesn’t believe the 6m profit will be maintained for full year as if the company makes £100m profit it’d be crazy to see the shares at such a deep discount to NAV
I’m very conflicted having set a SL at 170 x div but am beginning to worry some shock will be delivered by the management that somehow the market has anticipated albeit there’s no likelihood of a leak by the company as they’re tight lipped
If I had more money I might just keep buying but that’s too risky still maybe I’ll hold until we hit 150-160 by which time I’d probably accept something really was significantly wrong as that’d be an all time low for the share
GLA and I’m certainly not advocating these shares are a buy so DYOR as far as you can and keep asking questions of the management if possible
Indeed Theborn
Think I put commentators curse on it earlier by saying it was up
Share is a laughing stock. Still managed to plough a new low before EOD trading despite being up nearly 5% early on.
Heads need to roll soon.
Bounced off stop loss territory this morning but I’m so far out of the money it’s not really noteworthy
Mistake on my part : director sales were only partial sales to satisfy tax liabilities. Strike the last point of my last post from the record.
Indeed Barrieprov we live in uncertain times. My instinct on PFG is that 'should' be gaining profitable traction from here but they are not doing much of a job of selling their story - so my conviction like that of the market is not high. Then there is the history of disingenuous attractive headline numbers that they are 'delighted with' but after the oxymoronic 'usual exceptional' charges disappear before your very eye.
GLA
Hxulcolrdoh
I bought 500 of my shares at 355 on 21 Jan which is 7months and 1week ago and am on the brink as regards a SL of 170 so over 50% down but my total holding is 4,000 shares of which half was bought over £3.20 and only one position below £2 at £1.86 exactly a month ago so could quite easily cut my 4,000 share position in half - feel same way but it’s a question of wondering if the management will deliver a nasty shock at year end on impairment, costs or some other provisions after which they’ll give themselves a slap on the back and the shares will fall to £1 on assumption the business will earn on tough times ahead for their customers struggling with unconscionably high energy bills and 4% mortgage interest or much higher rental costs! Hope you’re right and I’m wrong as lost money on way down as a result of holding too long when the pandemic crashed the price!
I'm holding mainly because (famous last words) I think the upside/downside balance favours the upside.
But I guess both I and the market generally are struggling with PFG to quantify either scenario. Which is why we are where we are.
Strictly speaking post covid and post CCD/Woodford debacles they should be on the rise. Strictly speaking consumer credit/PFG should be able to make hay in the face of tightening household finances (as long as they don't allow credit risk to deteriorate).
Like Theborn I suspect that management do game / obfuscate the numbers with a view to creating wriggle room but that they do it to an extent that is counterproductive. Basically they need to say what they are going to do and do what they say.
It probably also doesn't help that both Neeraj Kapur the Finance director and MLM drop shares acquired as part of their remuneration like hot potatoes
According to my records July 94, 28 years ago !
It then rose to 2,674 by 2015.
We can but hope.
Looking at the chart for PFG is pretty depressing as with the exception of the immediate post Covid slump in share price PFG has never been this low for as far back as I can get info
I really wished I knew if there was some threat that could render the company insolvent eg some precipitate action by FCA or a black hole in the accounts or some other reason to justify my triggering a stop loss that’ll lose me over 50% of the price I paid earlier this year on the first tranche of my holding as otherwise I’m in danger of doing the reverse of the frog in hot water and freezing to death along with my not insignificant investment in this share.
Luckily though some would not like it I filled my boots with Shell albeit not with as much or at as low a share price as I should’ve in hindsight so have decent profits against which to offset the capital loss but I really can’t believe how utterly incommunicative a bunch this BOD appears. The words shareholder relations truly are an oxymoron as far as this company is concerned and I wished someone would just buy the company and put us out of our misery but sadly that’s not how it works for the likes of us small retail investors.
Ah well rant over and it’s very much every man (or woman - let’s not be sexist) for themselves. I may adjust my stop loss for the sake of a £100-£200 recovery to the level of its lowest historic price which no doubt someone on this BB can confirm as I still hope the next update may at least confirm the business is actually on course to repeat H1 and has some prospect of continuing to make money sufficient at least to justify a 240p SP in line with NAV as has been mentioned elsewhere on this BB though it’d be fascinating to see broker target price for this beleaguered company.
GLA and Happy BH weekend!
Personally I think Powell is a clown and the Federal reserve is a scam.
If you disagree that the time to acquaint yourself with G Edward Griffins "The Creature From Jekyll Island"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k
But ...
At least he attempts to provide some forward guidance.
Fed chair has p*ssed in the drinking water as usual and the market has turned tail so I’m again close to my stop loss but may not hit it today and if I do maybe I’ll buy back at an even lower price albeit my next SL is 160
GLA DYOR
I echo the sentiment
It’s a pity I’ve a friend on the inside I can’t ask for obvious reasons
I’m holding purely because I’m hoping it’s a company with value that is being misrepresented but have no evidence to base that judgement on other than I’ll read the financials and try to make sense
The year end results will be the final decider and any further prevarication will I think doom the share price and one assumes the best outcome would be a takeover by activist shareholder who can kick MLM into the sunset to bore his care home buddies with stories of past and present greatness
I have been thinking about the "We don't give guidance" stance that PFG generally take. For most markets and companies this would not wash. Management are there to serve shareholders. Do they think shareholders don't want guidance / prefer to stumble about in the dark?
The share price has fallen 40%+ since they announced their finals in March. Either
a) the share prices is in the toilet because it deserves to be or
b) a case has not been made to assert PFG's true value
In either case there has been failure in the stewardship of shareholders capital. Which is why I think MLM has nodded off at the wheel.
If and when PFG organize their 'Capital Markets Day' I really do hope they offer some 'guidance' as opposed to a lot of 'this what we do' flannel.
Since Feb 24th 2022 (date of Russian invasion of Ukraine) FXPO (Ukraine iron ore producer ) has fallen 40%
I'm holding both of them, not sure what my excuse is !
Went to the PFG 'shareholder hub' in an attempt to make sense of the numbers.
On the landing page they proudly announce 'Adjusted profit before tax - £167.8m" !
That's my problem. After deductions for - Amortisation of acquisition intangibles (£7.5m), charge discontinued operations (£95.5m), Exceptional items (£60.7m) the actual final profit was £4.1m
When the company can be blind sided by such large hits how do we know where we will end up. Hopefully ? if they had a comparable APBT this year they'd keep most of it ? In which case they'd be very profitable.
It’s bounced off my stop loss and I’m going to hold for now as will be crystallising a big loss on even 1,000 shares that’ll only be justified in hindsight if the company goes bus.
Everyone needs to consider their appetite for risk and DYOR if there’s any market intelligence to be had which is questionable - problem is we’re a good while away from any Q3 update do the shares will languish especially when they drop out of FTSE250 - if I had deep enough pockets I might continue to buy but it’d feel like I was putting it on 19 Red
I've posted previously about attempts to get a response from the company re guidance. All they said was 'we don't publish guidance, however we are aware of analyst projections so if we say we are 'in line with internal targets' that should be viewed positively to align with analyst expectations'
Then they publish results they are 'delighted with' and 'in line with management expectations' which are WAY OFF ANALYST EXPECTATIONS!! So you can't get any real sense or transparency from them even if you try.
Like I say, I think they take shareholders for fools.
I think (I'm hoping) that you are right Theborn - that the biggest failing is a lack of transparency/clarity and an associated fear of accountability.
I've already said I think the annual report is a shambles. I have searched the last 'finals' and 'interim's for the word 'guidance' . Effectively I turned up diddly
I suppose you can't miss an earnings forecast if you never gave one / simply waved your arms about.
So I'm hoping that the current price graph which looks like a terminal nose dive is an over reaction to the lack of visibility and that PFG will pull out of the dive soon before hitting the ground.
Great observation.
Unfortunately there are so many similar ones to be made. Most days I run a comparison of PFG vs FTSE250 for 3, 6 and 12 months. Mkes me want to vomit how far they've fallen vs the broader index.
I genuinely think part of the reason the price is so low, and analysts are providing updated guidance, is because they are always so unclear with the financials. I think Management feel they are the smartest guys in the room and and they can constantly change accounting policy / bulk up provisions / make vague statements and analysts and shareholders won't ask questions.
There is clearly a profitable underlying business. If they were just honest and transparent when providing financial information and guidance (even if they miss target on occasion) then there would be a lot more trust and confidence in the integruty and ability of the team. I just don't trust them as things stand.
Mark my words - they've overprovisioned during first 6 months and they'll release some of these in second half to provide what they think shareholders we see as a bumper H2. When in reality it will eek them in just in the analyst full year range (probably lower end) and profess how delighted and fantastic they are. Big slaps on the back. Idiot shareholders will be none the wiser.
In the meantime we'll have lots of guff posted on their website about how they are investing int he local community, helping borrowers and MLM advocating numeracy by speaking to the odd primary school twice a year. Meanwhile, shareholder watch their life savings whittle away - continually treated like mugs.
Time for a change. ASAP.
Company Net Assets post dividend = >£600m
Current NAV per share valuation = £440m
Company Share price is trading at 73% of Balance Sheet Net Assets! (even stripping out Intangibles its 78%).
Most companies will trade a 100% of net assets + premium for future expectations = valuation many mulitple of Balance Sheet Value.
Market view the Management as delivering -27% of future premium, that's -27% of NEGATIVE VALUE DESTRUCTION!!
They should be ashamed.
P.S. - the above metric is the main reason I'm still holding as despite the uselessness of management this does feel significantly oversold and even as a base case should be 100% of Net assets which = £2.40 per share as a minimimum. Even allocating some value for future profits takes you >£3.
I'll hold and keep moaning.
Since Feb 24th 2022 (date of Russian invasion of Ukraine) FXPO (Ukraine iron ore producer ) has fallen 40%
In the same time PFG has fallen +40%.
FXPO have an excuse. Whats PFG's ?
I’m getting close to hitting my stop loss on this share
Can’t believe this is happening after a decent set of half year results but it seems investment community has lost faith in company and doesn’t believe full year figures will reflect 6m possibly due to deteriorating economic picture and impact on poorer members of society?
Also management appear to be in La la land in terms of communication with shareholders
I’m heading for a second big loss having held on too long and then sold out too late when Covid arrived
I feel same way
There is surely a business opportunity to be had in near prime lending space particularly with the escalation in energy costs and rents etc especially in London regarding the latter but somehow this “experienced” management team are doing their best to feck it up !?