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Go to page 9 of the last accounts[31/12/09. Trading properties. Look at total revaluation its £351M, then knock off the Historical cost of £202M inc the odeon. Total added uplift is £149M . Then see Minervas share of the uplift £108M. Northacres is the other share as they are the Only J/V partner.[ £41M] This time round we should see the uplift go through the roof based on selling prices up from £2,000 per ft to £3,000 per ft plus another 20% sold in the accounting period . The accounts will not show the total Northacre profit, the accounts will be on the ultra safe side, but should in muy view be way above £41M last time. RE SALES; The directors of MNR and NTA want profit not sales so not looking for more than another 3-6 sales.a
I saw this morning that MNR announced annual results to 30 June next Tuesday. This should give another insight to progress at Lancs, both in the CEO/Chairman commentary to the results and in the detail how much MNR is reserving for NTA. Tara, I looked at the 2009 results and couldn't see from the trading properties data how you deduced the value MNR has allocated to NTA. How did you pick up that £38MM figure from the accounts ? It looks to me like the MMs want these shares. Wouldn't be surprised to see SP progression through Tuesday. That would be nice. Tara, did you get the impression from the AGM they have backed off selling more units for the timebeing or can we expect an announcement of more sales shortly. How do you read it ?
Interesting article from Chinese Peoples Daily on line re the demand for prime London from different nationalities. Also some quotes from Hamptons who are marketing The Lancasters http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90861/7097542.html
It looks like MNR results will appear later this month so I would expect that to give NTA SP a boost, assuming profit forecast is in line with previous indications. this must be on a few people's radars now so the accounts will give a nice clue to what we can expect. the commentary will need to talk up Lancs as well. MNR need to hang on every good piece of news they can find ata the moment. I still wouldn't rule out NTA having some involvement in Odeon Kensington. I know they sold their equity stajke earlier this year but they also did that with the Vicarage. Seeing Evans Randall (isn' tthat the name of the investor ??) buy up Odeon with NTA as the developer on a profit share would be handy news for all concerned.
Or they could use the profits to invest in other prime developments thus generating future growth - given the small of amount of shares in circulation future profits generation will have a very significant continued upwards movement in the share price
That will be the huge divi they will get on their shares.!! Like the rest of us.!!
Agree with you. I did some back of the fag packet calculations earlier and, on what I thought were conservative estimates (project costs £250MM and sale proceeds of £450MM), the NTA profit share was still over £83MM. Quite what NTa having £60MM plus in the bank account, after clearing small debts, will do for the SP I'm not sure but you'd have to think it will be a good increase from where we stand today. I'm not expecting them to introduce a dividend although it's possible they might might pay a special dividend on account of this windfall. I'm not expecting it though. It'll be interesting to see whaat sort iof bonuses they treat themselves to. That 's a little worry on the horizon. the two biggest shareholders, with 49%, are both Execs. I hope they are not too greedy.
After studying all the facts of this share - also thanks to tara7 - I must say, selling this share is, at this stage, a big mistake. Offcourse when you bought NTA at 30 pence and selling at 120+, thats a good gain. But what about a sp of £3.00 on a short term?!! Lay down, relax and wait... I´ll do, and I keep my many k´s until june next year.
Agree that a divi could be paid representing a good yield but also the share price should rise substantially to reflect the future growth in cash flow and profits - possibly £3.00 a share to reflect fair value and then dividend yield on top - there is alot of potential here
A 5% yield would cost just 1.5 million, so on £100M that yield could hit 50% and still leave a heap over.!!
the accounts mention retaining profits for future development as well - so I suspect a divi will be paid but they will also use cash earned to fund future developments which in turn will generate future growth and cash flow
We were told at the AGM and in the accounts divi on the way as soon as cash is on the books ie 9 months from today.
I suspect that they may pay a small dividend but are more likeley to use the profits to acquire or partner development of other prime residential properties
We all believe a higher sp is due. But what about a yearly dividend? Normally shareholders become this kind of participation. NTA didn´t pay dividends in the past, but could we expect a change next year?
thanks for the info - if results are out this week then this will definitely spur the share price forward, you cannot have a market cap of $30m approx with profits projection of minimum of $100m
Poster on iii states results are out Thurs, and Mnr company web page says Sep. Those results will show Northaces updated share of the Lancasters profits. That was £41M in the last set of Minervas accounts. This new set will show the 205 of the site sold at 50% higher prices,[ as per RNS at the end of June 2010.] Northacres share is set to leap to in my view double todays Northacres Market cap of £30 odd million. Then double again in the accounts in 6 months time as more units are sold. My forecast for Northacre profits from the Lancasters is around £100M in total. Good luck and ask your self why a buyer has been so god darn keen to buy up stock for the the last 7weeks.!!
quite a few people will have been in here from when the share price was 30p so could easily be some people taking profits - what seems to be clear is that there is a regular buyer for stock in 10, 000 - 20,000 batches. The stock does move very fast - so once Lancasters profit is confirmed it will rise very rapidly
If you have a look at yesterdays trades: - lowest sp 126, highest sp 139,75, ending up sp at 127,50. Every rise was followed by a sale. - No infuence from the markets or such, positiv day - No news, except for MNR RNS. Nothing new. Conclusion: a big shareholder is trying to keep the sp down (why should that be?) or daytrader are making gain. Anyhow it is pleasing me to see how powerful this share can perform. Let´s have some patience, and see what happens when real news about gains is published. I guess we see a sp of at least 3 pounds next year. And seeing the attractiveness of this share it wouldn´t surprise me to see a takeover-bid one of these days. After all a take-over would be financed by the Lancasters gain, and the byer is getting a brillant management and Intarya, which is doing very well too. It is just a matter of time to see a penny stock becoming a small cap ...
it does suprise me that this share has not received more attention given the potential
Agree - as the profit levels of the Lancasters become more transparent , the sp will have to move much further north or a t/o at a good premium.
you did very well with your purchase at 111.5p - its now up 25% from its low on Tuesday - very few shares in circulation combined with anticipated cash generation should see this push higher
BoredMum blogs on 'Averaging-up' as a trading tool and concept. Please read via the 'Blogs' tab, above.
Market Cap £31.53m (26.72m shares x s/p@118p) myself agree , is still low here at "NTA" when looking at potential Profits from just Lancasters development alone !!? BW Wraith
I believe that is a good entry price - at some stage the profits on the Lancasters development will be explicitly stated - estimates range from £110m - £170m, so patience is the key here but you cannot have a market cap of £35m with profits on £110m minimum
Yeah ; pleased i picked some up at s/p@111.5p today , on retrace . BW Wraith