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Jargonpain have a look at RNS 10 Jan 2018 & 28 Sept 2017 and you'll get the picture. There is no change to the stated "progressive dividend" policy. The interim was up 6. something %. Look at statements accompanying as many years accounts as you are interested enough to read. 8 years I would suggest and you see where much of my earlier summary came from. (For speed am not referring to quoted text and using round figures). They upped guidance from market expectations of circ £5m profits for current year to £7.2m which is absolutely fantastic but was never reflected in the share price. They've shaved a mere 400k approx from that lofty figure due to footfall lower over Christmas. That's about a 40% increase above market expectations! Putting that into perspective if they were a hundred shops that is 4000 a shop which annualises at £80 a week. These are sales and margins the market hadn't even originally expected. So they've given forward guidance for year 18/19 and basically said don't expect us to achieve growth like that again in that coming year but we are going to carry on with our programme of converting the last few shops to the new format which without exception has increased like for like sales and profits in each shop. They will have £17m on the balance sheet this year end. It's a very cleverly and we'll run business that had continued to out do the market for quite a number of years despite the earlier part of that period being a recover period. It's normally fluctuated between a p//e ratio of 18 to 21. Have a look at a graph somewhere. Ring the company sec and ask the last 2 ex dividend dates (not payment dates). Everything I've stated is just my opinion of course. DYOR. Are you invested in Moss Bros? Have you ever been?
what about the results, are they not quite important and due before any dividends which incidentally I understand are not ex dividend next month.
quite forcefully north
Andreaban I suspect the people selling are those who have been caught out on other retail stocks and regret not selling these at around a £1 or even 90 or 80p and don't want to risk it going sub 60p. I have a feeling that not many shares are left in the hands of retail investors so selling pressure unlikely to kick in. Maybe it's just market makers marking down over cautiously or ahead of the ex date to increase their book. Have seen large parcels migrate over to institutional investors all on RNS and take some comfort from that. I was tempted to wait to see if US rates under new Fed chief rise at a higher rate than expected level under his first watch this month and startle the markets but at the end of the day I haven't bought with the intention of selling before collecting dividends and watching the stock appreciate significantly. If it goes lower with the market from time to time and back up to 70ish like recently doesn't really make difference. But, yes if it is a quid again for no apparent reason short term then I'll take that but not expecting it above 85p even if next months ex date drives it white forcefully north.
Ahmir121 IMO if there's a soft brexit it will rerate dramatically on a strengthening of Sterling & in the event of a hard brexit and a crashed pound, they are very fit and have not only the trading business but the balance sheet and free cash merits to survive as one of the fittest, and benefit from the demise of any competitors large or small. I believe they have zero net debt too.
changes. Add to that their own brand high quality mid priced stuff and it's a great blend. Hire is a shared lunch. That figure could well reduce over time but it's likely to plateux. Amourous teenagers don't want risks to their proms anymore than newly Weds and the guests do to weddings etc so they will retain enormous good will and reliability in the market place. New formats are great and online highly efficient and reliable. Don't recall George Soros selling his double figure holding and not going to trawl through years and years of RNS'S to check but think I would know anyway from press if he had. If remember correctly he bought about 13% at around 45p in 2012 and adjusted the stake down about 24 hours later by a single or fraction of a % suggesting dealing error on the figures. International is not important as it never scaled. 1 shop in a silly part of Dubai led to nothing further. So it's a non issue. However that doesn't mean someone else wouldn't approach them for the MINA or far east region/s. They are caught up in poor sentiment for retail. They have adjusted forcast profits modestly but fact is they had upped projections by about 40% previously from (talking round figures) £5m to £7m so to blow the froth of that by 2, 3 or even 400k is of no consequence. They are not changing dividend or investment policy as if the high Street is suffering as it is then I every £1 spent could well be with £2. If the top guy goes no doubt he'll sell his shares at same time. A baby could take over the wheel of this ship as it's self driving now. All in my opinion as indeed previous post which is first part of this one...some silly smart fone or website issue to blame.
25k not showing on system yet. Been out if the stock a while. Can't ignore the yield and the fact they don't have dozens if onerous leases. The legacy leases are nearly all gone. What's left are insignificant. Their stated policy which they seem to have stuck with strictly, is, don't renew anything that isn't profitable, equitable and medium term with flexibility, and to otherwise shut the shop and relocate. They did great in the credit crunch period even though there was a glut of unemployment and zero hours contracts, being the go to place for smart and inexpensive work suits so if a hard brexit materialises and a dreaded recession looms if the doomsayer's are correct about the consequences, I expect Moss Bros to do even better. They now buy from Europe in euro and not just China in USD as far as I know and can respond quickly to market
undervalued slow mover ...such a shame the location of the Dubai store slowed the potential of the progress overseas ...that would have been huge
Half year results showed �4.2m PBT, with fully year prediction of �6.5-�6.8m Half year net assets of approx �34m excluding intangibles. So compared to a market cap of �64m, I see it as the market valuing all future profits at just �30m. This seems undervalued
Cash in bank, making money, good P/E and plenty of opportunities for combinations. Could this slot inside Debenhams? Would shareholders accept Debenhams shares? People want to try on a suit before they buy it, similarly people want to hire suits. I am buying anyway.
Right, final post of the night - My personal opinion? Possibly retracing to not much worse than the 60's with a reasonable to high risk of the ultimate floor being in the mid 50's before the SP starts "correcting" and making its way out of Oversold territory. No matter what - can't see it dropping below 50's under any circumstances whatsoever (if it ever retrtaces to that area in the first place of course). All, only IMO.
Tsk! Gone midnight - what a time to start researching!!! LOL! Something of note, the SP has gone, in one day, from "middling" along at a pleasant average relative strength to just over and into oversold territory. So as of tonight IT IS oversold. Checking the price action over the years, incredibly MOSB has not been oversold once, since 2014!!! But before then - countless times of numerous occasions of being oversold; and a lot of those occasions (a lot) quite deep. Mind you, it only just has stepped slightly over into oversold - just a smidgen, dancing on the edge, so to speak. So if it's intent on mirroring the big oversoilds of yesteryear then quite a bit of retrace to come could be on the cards yet, before correcting - but who's to say for sure? Just an opinion. See what the media analysts make of that RNS in the coming days,
Small adjustments??? Well yes, I agree, but was the market expecting SO MANY small adjustments in this downward adjustment RNS to previously issued guidance to the market? The small adjustments in isolation are: "... against a very challenging consumer backdrop .....but due to lower footfall than anticipated during December, particularly in stores, .....the business expects to report a full year profit before tax performance within a range of �6.5m to �6.8m, which is slightly below current market expectations. ...Like for like total sales for the first 23 weeks of the second half were -0.1% lower than last year. ....Hire sales.... were -3.6% on a like for like basis. Whilst down on the previous year, hire sales did improve on the previously reported first half performance, which was -8.4% below H1 last year. ..... Overall, gross margins for the 23 weeks of the second half fell by -3.0% on last year. A fall of -0.7% was seen in the first half of the year. .....against a backdrop of weaker consumer demand and increasing cost headwinds ....as we enter 2018. Given that we expect these challenging retail conditions to continue for the foreseeable future...." Net result of all that is a one day fall of 16% ! Given that the PE ratio is 16 going on (Forward PE15) is it fair to say that the PE will have to come down somewhat after so many negatives in one RNS? - So maybe more retrace on the cards??? - But Ooh that 7% dividend yield is tempting, and this company has been around more than most shares listed on the stock exchange... hmmm. What are next supports? - A couple in the 60's before the first in the 50's at 57-ish. Tempting,.... :) especially as there ARE some positives in the RNS update but with a 16% drop today the market has gone into cardiac shock at that RNS! Question: How far will it fall before the market is sated and extracted its pounbd of flesh for that RNS?
There does seem to be something happening in the market as small adjustments either to sales or profits are seemingly responsible for major movements in share prices.This company has been increasing both sales and profits for a number of years now and one small blip to sales with a very small affect on profits has this effect of taken over 15% off its share price.Looking at the fundamentals this looks live it has be overdone and I bought back into this company today.However not at the lowest point,but expect a bounce shortly.
Seems the market is very nervous presently; any result which is below expectations produces a substantial sp fall. I regard it, in Moss's case, as an over-reaction. Are UK males going to, permanently, buy fewer suits? Bearing in mind the cash position, the dividend looks safe.
Well that went well!!!!
Agree don't see moss bros going the same way of other retailers....what would really be great if they progressed properly on all the promise
I suspect that some investors believe the retail high street in �going to hell in a handcart�. Yes, parts are failing however I don�t regard Moss as a casualty. Time will tell.
Does anyone have any insight into the fall in share price? Just seeking some reassurance, as this has been consistently tipped as a solid share!!
Hi lokash Yes it's been a major disappointment..i didn't invest and it looks like I won't till I get a update on the overseas work This has so much potential in the middle east and will propel this to new highs if they get it right I agree with you they need to locate better ... Dubai and similar countries there is a market for tailored clothing and what moss bros offers but it needs to be in the right locations I went Dubai last year for a week and I didn't see any advertisement for moss bros or even the store.. ..i went to the big shopping malls ...sheikh zahid road etc ...
Ahmir121 overseas expansion has been the only let down in recent years that I can remember. They don't normally over promise in my opinion when they report and were probably bedazzled by their dealings with whoever in Dubai and didn't realise they were going into a low footfall area not frequented by tourists and well enough paid workers (with reasonable disposable income). The name's gone out my head right now but did check online to establish where in Dubai their branch is and you can get the details too if you wish. It's in a tiny mall with a small size supermarket which can't remember if was a Carrefour, Spinneys or Lulu but think Carrefour, a Jumbo electronics and I think one other store of the same type. It is not a tourist destination and the nearby offices are rudimentary things like DEWA being the only notable one (utility monopoly). The general population is small. The local apartments are built without pools and underground car parks. Normally even a basement plus 4 storey building on older construction is pool and designated car park space underground and a gym between each four blocks. This area doesn't have that spec, is low cost rent and low income salaries relative to non manual workers. The original RNS from what I recall was uncharacteristically bullish when they got franchisee and it was a long time if waiting that drove me to check out where the shop/s is/are. I could only find that one in whole of Middle East and don't think I would have missed an RNS. The people who live in the area tend to have migrated from International City in the downturn, International City being the cheapest and worse place in the Emirates to live for a variety of problems which include they have a sewage treatment place that stinks the area. Going south towards Abu Dhabi from say Emirates Mall and past JLT I think it is the next junction on the right before the one which takes you to Ibn Battuta Mall so that is 2 or 3 just exits past exit 36. I first bought small when they were really cheap, sold out with a small profit and bought what was for me large in April 2011at a slightly higher price until selling few months back. They seem to have an issue with the hire business that looked to be just the year before last a one off blip but from glancing at last published numbers think looked like it was coming back again but that part of the business is sometimes caught in the crease of reporting date and wedding and prom season dates so could well iron out. Next results will tell. I think it is good solid well run company. They were a bit penny pinchish with the CE's bonus if remember correctly year before last and even though him and the former chief financial officer sold much to my annoyance a lot of shares he is still there at the top earning good money and seems happy.
No wonder very little trade is going on with a spread of nearly 8%
Mag tomorrow as a positive tip update. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2017/09/28/moss-bros-retail-gets-the-job-done/ GLA
....is one of the positives from today's news. All-in-all, Moss is moving forwarded positively in what are challenging market conditions. Balance sheet is cash rich to support continued growth and a progressive dividend performance.
Having tracked sideways, and a little bit down in recent months, for some time it will be good if tomorrow's results move us clear of the general malise on evidence in much of the clothing retail sector. Expecting further uplift in the dividend.