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Started: letitroll, 4 May 2019 19:21
Last post: letitroll, 4 May 2019 19:21
Probability of deal going through
https://www.independent.ie/business/media/inm-small-investors-needed-to-approve-sale-38077020.html
See small investors are apparently important to get to the votes needed - my view would be that alot of people are sick of how depressed the SP has been that they roll over even the deal is so cheap
Big Q is the cost basis these folks had - D O'Brien can suck up 500m loss but can others take a % hit
Agree - deal looks like a song.... Would have expected a minimum of 180m.... Have done ok out of this but expected more upside
So if you strip out the 80m in the bank, the Dutch are paying 65m for a company making about 20m a year profit.
Sounds like a good deal for the buyer, unless there is something we don't know (apart from the known unknowns).
Started: letitroll, 6 Apr 2019 18:32
Last post: GeneK, 30 Apr 2019 11:11
Indeed. Though we will never know all the details of whatever deal they are doing. Will be interesting to see if INM quietly drops any attempt to recover the costs of legal and regulatory action against 3rd parties connected to shareholders in due course. A topup for certain shareholders by the back door.....
Hard to believe the largest shareholders accepted 10.5 cent a share
I’ve sold out here a while ago
I don’t envy the guys doing due diligence as so many potential liabilities, many of which won’t be determined for some time
Difficult to imagine who would be interested
I seem to recall that it was TONY OREILLY who first came up with the idea of capitalizing the notional value of the titles to the papers and inflating the balance Sheet; I wonder what they are valued at now?
The bid may initially be pitched in that manner however that falls short of the €200m-€250m valuation referenced in recent media speculation. Unfortunately I think €12 - 13c (€175m approx) is more likely.
Anyone have an idea around what would be a reasonable take out price for INM? We've known for a long time its undervalued be interesting to see what the go private price might - 50% premium to average SP over the past 12 months?
Yes I noted that commentary in the times as well, in light of the recent investigations the timeline of events is concerning. I take solace from company value returning to sensible levels however. The approach intrigues me, surely no offer is being considered without initially reaching out to the two largest (private) shareholders. If an offer is formally tabled I would assume that approval from these parties has already been granted.
Am I reading this right? did the company's chief executive disclose news of an approach to financial analysts, BEFORE posting in an RNS?
is amazing!
Here is a free forecast. A paywall won 't help revenue. The online offering is nowhere good enough to justify it. I scan it sometimes since it's free, wouldn't consider paying for it.
Started: LUCAN, 29 Mar 2019 13:15
Last post: LUCAN, 29 Mar 2019 13:15
Usual question. Who knew?
Started: LUCAN, 27 Mar 2019 21:33
Last post: LUCAN, 27 Mar 2019 21:33
Hopefully the prelims reflect a fundamental picture that remains strong (or not as bad as the market pricing would suggest) in the context of a changing market and all the noise of the last 18 months
I wonder why?
Started: LUCAN, 28 Jan 2019 18:59
Last post: LUCAN, 28 Jan 2019 18:59
They will be in the High Court shortly, facing contempt charges over a report which a competent sub-editor would have sanitised in a few moments. Penalties could be very large.
I repeat, sub-editors (or whatever you like to call them) are there for a reason.
As for the pension deficit, they could pay it off from cash at bank, if they chose. Which they won't.
Lucan, there is a massive pensions debt. currently €60m. This is the elephant in the room.
Illiquidity is adding to the distortion in value and unfortunately there is little on the horizon to improve sentiment, what sp would people accept in a take private scenario?
MCAP now £97m.
Cash at bank 31 Dec. '17 £91.5m. Probably now north of 95m.
So the business is worth nothing at all?
Truly remarkable.
Started: LUCAN, 20 Jan 2019 14:29
Last post: LUCAN, 20 Jan 2019 14:29
Another 35 redundancies under discussion.
Hard to see how there can be that much spare manpower, in what seems to be already a tight operation.
The danger of course is further lawsuits. Sub-editors are there for a reason.
Started: letitroll, 23 Nov 2018 21:59
Last post: letitroll, 23 Nov 2018 21:59
INM is now a japanese style net-net....not many of those around.....selling well below liquidation value...ignoring cash its selling for 4 times normalized earnings...Mr.Market is dejected and depressed as no news seeps out about the ODC investigation.
I bought a bunch today at 0.06........the ODCE investigation & ensuing lawsuit settlements provide finally a nice catalyst. This point in time I would argue is peak pessimism. Second level thinking here would YES things are bad (ODCE & data breach lawsuits) but not SO bad INM should be selling below liquidation value. I'll be buying more in the coming days.
Started: LUCAN, 17 Nov 2018 17:52
Last post: LUCAN, 17 Nov 2018 17:52
taken over by bondholders. Shareholders wiped out. Sic transit.
Started: LUCAN, 22 Oct 2018 20:41
Last post: LUCAN, 22 Oct 2018 20:42
.. another 20 NI titles.
Pity INM is in such a mess.
on the auction blockj, alpparently, in cluding Newsletter, Derry Journal and another 20
Not a good situation, however you look at it.
Suspect someone will be found to volunteer for blame, otherwise the litigation will be horrendous.
Last post: letitroll, 10 Sep 2018 20:17
INM will need to move criminal & civil responsibility to its ex-Chairman & largest shareholder. Given the information out there it certainly appears like Leslie Buckley is in big trouble..................then the question becomes what involvement did DOB have in the matter which will be harder to prove IMO.
In regard to INM the legal question is what liability falls on its shoulders for the actions of what appears now to be a rogue Chairman acting not on behalf of the enterprise but rather its largest minority shareholder.
Great drama but not good for share price. For now 0.08 seems to be the bottom it bounces off.
Would love to know what the Sunday Business Post fetched in the private markets!?
So we will cooperate. No alternative at this stage.
Started: LUCAN, 4 Sep 2018 20:55
Last post: LUCAN, 4 Sep 2018 20:55
For avoidance of doubt, last para in 19.51 post is not part of Mr Justice Kelly's judgement.
Started: LUCAN, 4 Sep 2018 20:51
Last post: LUCAN, 4 Sep 2018 20:51
Among those whose data was interrogated were journalists, former directors of INM, as well as two senior counsel who acted for the Moriarty Tribunal, which investigated allegations relating to the awarding of the second mobile phone licence to Mr O'Brien's company, Esat.
The judge said it was difficult to see what the interrogation of information concerning at least some of those people had to do with the cost-reduction exercise. He said their rights and entitlements may have been transgressed in a most serious way.
The question is, who is to carry the can. There is an obvious candidate, but he does not seem inclined to cooperate.
.. Tuesday 4th, 2 pm.
Judgement
It depends how many lawsuits there are, for one thing.
It seems there may be 19 people, at least, with an arguable case for invasion of privacy. Maybe more.
Started: letitroll, 21 Aug 2018 06:27
Last post: letitroll, 21 Aug 2018 06:27
Worst case scenario INM is found guilty of corporate governance failures that the board allowed its chairman & by extension its largest shareholder to exert undue influence to the harm of minority shareholders. There will be a fine. Central Bank fines for serious failures of AML laws for Ulster were like 3.3m. Thats the max fine here + legal fees.
INM has done a good job now shifting & warehousing to a certain extent blame on Leslie Buckley's door because quite frankly from everything I've read thats where it should lie. INM's remaining board members were guilty of complicity while the management CEO & CFO actually raised alarm bells, to their immense credit, through the correct the channels.
The true cost of this exercise is that its pushed out further the chance of dividends & buybacks while distracting management attention from right sizing the business. I'm a bull at 0.85 and will buying like crazy at 0.75.
Started: LUCAN, 18 Aug 2018 21:08
Last post: LUCAN, 18 Aug 2018 21:08
The question is, what will the business be worth when the present legal process is over.
Not so easily answered.
Started: letitroll, 17 Aug 2018 22:00
Last post: letitroll, 17 Aug 2018 22:00
How much lower can the SP price go...........INM had 91.5 in cash EOY 2017, by now I would imagine that they probably now have 105m in cash on the balance sheet given est. 2018 EBIT of 28m so 14m H1 2014 = 105m
Today the market cap hit 110m..............with 105m of cash in the bank!!!......its getting close to a Japanese style net-net