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Haggis
I do have sympathy for your statement "At capital market day in April 20 the company so claimed perched water : by that point many investors were in deep but it seemed sensible to hold" that is understandable because most investors don't understand what the implications of ,or even what "perched water" actually means....why should they? A more open and honest company might have said "we believe this is perched water, but there may be alternative explanations such as a shallower OWC, we will continue to monitor and update shareholders as further data on water cut is gathered" - this is the problem, small caps are so determined to spin the positive and avoid the negative that a statement such as that would have hit the share price, and no doubt with lot of shouting and anger from these and other boards.for being negative! ..however it would have been a more fullsome explanation to allow folks to understand the risks....I'd rather companies were honest with both the upside and downside, but to be honest many small cap shareholders just want to hear positives and "news flow". Just visit many of the small cap oilers on these Boards, folks endlessly promoting the stock usually with half truths or words taken out of context...
I simply try to give the other side of the risk story, not because I'm paid to do so, I'm not, simply because knowing the full picture leads to better investment decisions, even if its stuff you don't want to hear... I have the experience to translate what they are actually saying and often what they're not saying. Of course the rampers don't like that because they can't argue with facts and data... so of course they just claim I'm a paid deramper because they can't say anything else...not can they debate the issues.
Haggis:
Look at the share chart it started to fall off sharply in late 2019 early 2020...
Maybe hindsight for some, but Folks in the industry were openly talking about "just watch for any early water" because fractured reservoirs can be notorious for accessing the aquifer and watering out quickly..Of course it could have been as big as they said and a lot of investors believed it, and wanted to believe it... but the single rule of thumb for investors who understand the technical and commercial side is never invest in a small cap ( or medium cap) developing a field 100%, history is littered with failures because they have no co-funding partner to stop them smoking their own dope...
The first mention of a water cut of 7.5% was 2nd Sept 2019...
That level of water cut from wells 100s of meters above the OWC so early in its production history was unusual, the statement within expected range was I'm afraid the start of the head scratching which lead to "perched water" because the thought of a shallower contact was just "unimaginable" because of the ramifications.
> most smart investors with oil and gas knowledge left the minute the water appeared
That is easy to say with hindsight. However water rumours didn't appear until Jan 20 on lemonfool forum. At that point water cut was low but rate dependent. Then covid hit in March 20 and shares every where were down.... At capital market day in April 20 the company so claimed perched water : by that point many investors were in deep but it seemed sensible to hold (at least until covid passed). It wasn't until kitchen sinking in Sept 20 the company admitted the truth and full scale of the problem....
"The OWC levels were assumed to deeper and the water dismissed as perched because any other conclusion could only mean the OWC was higher"
and that didn't fit what the whole development was based on - they couldn't and wouldn't stand for any idea other than this one - and it was proven wrong by actual production wrong
Keepwell. Look back at July 2019 presentations which had a lot of coverage of water and was the start of the perched thesis I think. The OWC levels were assumed to deeper and the water dismissed as perched because any other conclusion could only mean the OWC was higher. Fast forward less than 2 years and 7z is watered out and 6 has increased water cut so the only conclusion is that the water was never perched at all but that the wells were drilled just above the real OWC.
The original CPR was fatally flawed and in some respects should never have been commissioned with incomplete data especially in a reservoir network that was new to the area and not well understood where there are other similar plays at the other side of the world.
The producing wells fill in the missing piece of the jigsaw, augmented by the other previously poor E&A wells. All Dr Trice succeeded in doing was slowly but surely home in with the tail of the donkey to the sweeter parts of the reservoir with 7z and 6 which were in the dome of the reservoir and in the only place meaningful volumes of oil were trapped. But sadly those volumes are being replaced with water and the dome isn't anything like as big as the CPR suggested outwith the structural closure.
This is all a real shame as many people have lost significant sums of money. I take no pleasure describing it like it is, but I do take umbrage with idiots denying the facts that the wells are displaying as if it's some sort of conspiracy.
We all may have been mislead from the beginning, not just the last 6 months.
If one CPR says one thing and then the next, it completely changed, surely it warrants the questions, why? Both need looking at, in full, inside and out. Then we may find the corruption.
Of course there's all the add on/ created problems too.
This is not a 5 minute job and so this may cause an adjournment, to enable the AGM or EGM to take place. We are trying to buy time here.
Keepwell
Its Market Abuse...
It requires evidence, and if its actually happened Stifel or their NOMAD predecessors will be fined because ethyl are there to protect the market not the company. You're all looking at the wrong end of the issue, once it was kitchen sinked the game was over... arguably most smart investors with oil and gas knowledge left the minute the water appeared and it was "perched"... not impossible, but 95% unlikely....
MIU, if they suspect foul play (misuse to market) they will carry out a full investigation.
This could go all the way back to the beginning of Trice....