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I've looked at the 2019 and 2020 figures.
In summary, Rail is a big part of revenue, but it's not a big part of profit. i.e. Rail is about 75% of Revenue, but for profits, in 2019 and 2020, it was 11.42% (2020) and 20.97% (2019). I'm trying to get a handle on what percent of Rail, the SE Rail Franshise was.
28m shares in issue and only 280k bought and sold aggregate
market makers taking advantage of news just look at volume bought sold hardly anything when you look at the number of shares in issue, big institutions not reacting tbh only small investors
@Moonman1977
The thing about the SFO seems to have just been added to the BBC article. Go-Ahead do need to issue further statements as shareholders will have concerns.
It is worrying, but I'm just going to leave it personally.
I think the Thameslink contract is up in March next year.
Without rail, GOG may as well join SGC and NEX :-P
I would buy more now but do not trust this company now, what else are they hiding ?
20-25ish% book
From what I can tell, Rail is the dominant part of their revenue, but it's a small contribution to profits. Just starting to get to grips with the finances though and my conclusion could be wrong. I'm not an accountant...
Rail makes up about 16% of the 2023 forecast operating profits and there were 3 large contracts including SE I believe. Link to analysts estimates below:
https://www.go-ahead.com/investors/analysts-and-consensus
It's not great news but a quick PE calc based on 2023 forecasts and then halving to be majorly conservative still results in this share being a buy now
This is very unexpected :-( considering significant increment in card txns being processed.
Holding sizeable chunk here and impact my annualised return. Still hold though but I wonder whether it could be now short target?
About 1bn of revenue contribution in 2020
How much of southeastern rail makes up GOGs company? I mean isit a small fraction of GOG or a large chunk of the business?
I think it will calm down. My average is 1179 and I was hovering over the sell button. Then I asked myself what I think the position will be in two years time and if I really need to do that. I've left it. It's a solid bus franchise and the ideas of 'fraud' seem a bit fanciful, even libelous. There have been no allegations of fraud made by the government, and they've been looking into this for some time. I wasn't expecting Govia to keep SouthEast anyway.
It's clear that none of the analysts knew about this. I see that UBS were promoting Go Ahead as late as yesterday:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/961441/go-ahead-a-buy-again-says-ubs-as-bus-recovery-gathers-speed-961441.html
Should be apologising to their shareholders as well tbh. Shambolic.
@Moonman. "with the utmost respect, you haven't been here before with GOG"
Yes, I agree. You are right.
I am researching it. If dishonesty is at the core, then I will not hold it.
If it's any comfort, I'm sitting on a ~30% paper loss. My average is 1240p but I keep in mind that Go Ahead operate a resilient business model where 90% of their revenues are secured through contracts with no revenue risk from changes in passenger demand. Yes, the loss of one of their contracts is disappointing but they operate a much needed service and with a fuel crisis and cost of living increasing, it may just push a generation or two to using public transport more.
Good luck, investors.
OK, I don't like the look of this. I was 'happy' if it was incompetence, but it looks to me like this is an issue with dishonesty/fraud; the SFO will be involved. This is like Petrofac. It could bring into question all other franchises and they will want an audit.
@CaneToad
I'm pretty sure that it comes under Govia and the they don't own the whole franchise. I think 65% with a French company.
Turning in to a disaster, was already down now another 18% down, This fiasco is headline news now, We need xplinations from the CEO how this happened and to calm the market
Anybody know how big a percentage that South East Rail is of GOG?
I've been here before with GOG. I have no plans whatsoever of selling now. Obviously with a crystal ball, I should have offloaded yesterday.
Agreed Moonman1977, this doesn't loook good at all. CFO going with immediate affect, £25m repaid with potential further sanctions. Does make you wonder about potential criminal sanctions going forwards.
I was almost back in the green and now the management are involved in fraud?! FFS. This looks like it is heading to sub-800 levels at this rate.
I'm wondering, financial penalty aside, whether this franchise is that much of a loss.
Yep, it's not good. No idea about the fine.