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Read comment by@Moilgas on 9 may.
Don't understand your comment: there has been no out of court settlement as yet
Did Kosovo government want this out of court settlement?
My guess / hope is that those who want out have sold and those who want in either are in or know they have till the 26th. So I’m hopeful for the price to tick up as those who want to be in but haven’t pulled the trigger yet outweigh those still in who want out.
Very quiet here. Has everyone lost interest?
Let’s now speculate on the outcome of success in the action against the Republic of Kosovo. The claim is for €195m which has undoubtedly been ‘kitchen sinked’.
FOX will shortly no doubt be funding the litigation by way of a CFA or DBA deal and we should therefore assume that anywhere between 30 and 50 ( at the extreme) percentage goes from any settlement. Then there are the original litigation funders who take a max of £1.75m.
For the sake of illustration, let’s assume a deal is done equal to £25m which would reduce to £13.25m IF a 40% contingency fee is taken. This would equal 3.17p per share pre the reorganisation. An extra £10m on the deal would add another 1.44p and the opposite if only £15m were achieved.
It is notoriously difficult to judge the possible outcomes of litigation but the upside for shareholders on the register before the cut-off look attractive relative to the current SP IF the company wins the case.
As a long-term holder of Fox I had got to the point of fearing for its very survival but now we can start again with a totally different proposition. One of the major US investment banks identified modular housing as one of its 10 significant investment themes for 2023 and that is precisely where the ECO deal takes FOX. Anyone with a close involvement with the building sector will know of the frustrations of materials supply, costs and construction times. Yet with ECO, the main element of the structure is made in factory, pretty quickly, out of material which is very cheap and easily available throughout the world. It should revolutionise the way large scale housing projects are constructed.
Of course, the new management team has to perform and only time will tell on that.
And then we have the interesting litigation situation. As was made clear in the 5 May RNS, the record date for entitlement to any net proceeds of the litigation is 6pm on 26 May. There are therefore still 10 trading days during which FOX shares can still be acquired which will acquire these rights. The litigation is against the Government of Kosovo which may have thought FOX, then capitalised at around £4.5m and looking all but bust, as simply an irritation that would eventually disappear. They are now faced with a company with a Cap potentially at £54m based on the Friday close which is a premium of 41% to the pre-suspension price. I suspect they are going to take FOX/ECO a lot more seriously now, especially since the new board has Dr Shala as a NED given his previous role as a member of the Kosovo Government!
All in all, a very interesting situation..............
If you ask Dentons, the solicitors acting for us, they will say when. They would not have taken on the case on a no win no fee basis. We attracted certain investors who provided the seed money to allow Dentons to assess the case. They would also say when. To me the biggest unknow is how much!
Someone on Twitter says WHEN we win the case. So is it WHEN or IF?
1000% is if they win the litigation, the 100% is a given on the rto
Hi Goliath, I'm curious - what will drive this 100%?
Still waiting on that TR1 with interest
Certainly the share consolidation will have an impact.
Fox Marble Holdings will do over 100% at some stage close to 26 May
Most definitely a buy at that price.
if it had been a sell then the MM's would have either taken the trade at a far lower SP, or there would need to have been absolutely loads of buys way above 1.75p to cover the MM's purchase.
Most definitely a large buy. I actually suspected we would see that yesterday
17.5M = OVER 4% of shares in issue...
EXPECT ...BUYERS TR1 ...soon
GL
That 17.5M is 100% BUY....see below.....at the time price was 1.65 vs 1.70
look at how next 40-50mins played...it SHOT UP all the way to 1.90p BUY..also note 9mins before that trade ..shareprice was 1.45 vs 1.55 and it went to AUCTION...came out...there was a UT trade at 1.70p....shareprice shot up....looks like ORDER HAD gone.
£300k is not small/loose change...someone is confident...maybe of DIVI PAYOUT...goodluck to them...
https://www.screencast.com/t/eqE72AK6s
https://www.screencast.com/t/84YEsuou
https://www.screencast.com/t/wInKlua5lOpf
Yes, oddly it might be better for tomorrow for it to have been a sell. Might have been dragging the SP down.
MM11 - I can't agree with you.
Yesterday at that time trading was 1.75 - 1.85 so I'd say that was definitely a SELL and a whopping one at that !
Welcome to LSE by the way
17..5m Buy
Very nice indeed, If you check out the share price at the time it’s definitely a buy.
Hopefully a better day tomorrow.
GLA
How can you tell it is a buy?
17.5m buy, nice
If they were to drop to the issue price for the £2.7m raising it would be the equivalent of 1.08p,or 55p post consolidation. I suspect they will trade a bit higher than that, given the contracts that are in place.
With regard to winning the litigation, I believe they are very confident of winning. The question really is how much,when & how recoverable is the debt. Presumably any award will be recovered, because at one stage the lawyers were tasked with identifying assets to recover. This action commenced over 3.5 years ago so you would expect some developments in the not to distant future.
What does anyone think is likely to happen after the record date? With no rights to the legal claim proceeds they have to drop, but by how much?
Hi Truro, johnphw et al, Fox is one of a handful of legacy aim/ riskier investments left in my portfolio. I’m afraid my average is above 12P , but I didn’t invest a fortune! I may add once the dust has settled on the reverse takeover. The new board certainly has good credentials.