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Mr News
I thanked you for your input. Which was sincerely meant.
I went on to make a general comment. Not directed at you.
I do however thank you for the reply. As usual expertly analysed and written up.
I’ve added a few on the dip into my SIPP as drilling news on at least two projects snd helicopter survey could land at anytime- was interesting what CB said about the helicopter survey so far. Will be very interesting when they get full results
cjmorley
In answer to your comment which you directed at me:
"The market is scared that the LICENCE RENEWAL may NOT happen."
As I have posted from the Lexology last night, the regulations are there to view and ONLY in circumstances as mentioned eg alteration etc, then the process is stated clearly.
CHECKS & BALANCE:
One can check the RECORD for Philippines for example wherein LICENCES HAVE NOT BEEN RENEWED. I have already done that for myself. One can check easily and that is due diligence common to ALL stocks.
2} "Given change in DEMAND and price of cu and au the govt may alter significantly the TERMS OF RENEWAL."
My reply: I think there is a CONFUSION OVER RENEWAL OF LICENCE and DEMAND/PRICE OF CU AND AU. Why? The Philippine mining legislation is FIXED and any de-viation from that is subject to judicial review if at the extreme case as is in ANY JURISDICTION. Govt*s do not NOT attach or change TERMS OF LICENCE RENEWAL at will. If they want change, that COMES UNDER TAXATION or cess etc which is COMMON EVERYWHERE including even one state in Australia. No one can ever GUARANTEE that even for a Tier 1 Western jurisdiction, that cannot happen.
Hope that answers all the question [2]. As I said, Mr Bird needs to UPDATE on Mankayan and if one does take Mr Bird own words: "MANKAYAN; NO SHORTAGE OF SUITORS", that is self-evident from the horse*s mouth that both the questions you raise may NOT be present? I CAVEATED my post with NEED FROM HEAR FROM MR BIRD FURTHER.
If you go to Twitter, you will find that Australian and Australian counsel have welcomed the Philippines lifting of the ban and are looking to ....
Fri, 7 May 2021
Like ALL STOCKS, do wait FOR RENEWAL ON 11 NOV 2021 and unfortunately as for a guarantee that the govt will not impose taxes is NOT only applicable to Philippines but for all jurisdictions.
As the CEO of Glencore said, that $15,000 copper will bring out NEW PRODUCTION. What does this mean? It means that MASSIVE PROJECTS have high capex and unless $15,k copper is present, then new projects cant come on. Govt will be made aware of that from the MAJOR MINERS LIKE GLENCORE and indeed the CEO has stated so.
Mr News
Firstly can I thank you for your detailed input.
The market is scared (as indeed am I) that the license renewal may not happen. Or given the change in demand and price of Cu and AU the government may alter significantly the terms of renewal.
Still too open ended, the market hates uncertainty.
MANKAYAN
This is the MOST PRIZED in the Colin Bird suite of copper projects that is ready for sale.
GoldFields [NYSE listed & JSE] offered US$70m for Mankayan with a JORC 2004 -
Edison put the Value-In-Situ at some US$12.57 Billion [copper @$8.08b and gold @$4.49b]. https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=2316
That is about 0.5% or 1/2% of the Value-in-Situ by Edison at US$12.57b.
=CURRENT VALUE-IN-SITU=
If one were to update Edison*s V-In-S, it would be
1.3Mt copper x $10k/t [currently $10,227 per Hulme FT today at https://twitter.com/humenm]= US$13bn
4.3 Moz gold x $1,818/oz =US$7.81 bn [Source: https://twitter.com/KitcoGoldQuotes]
TOTAL: 13+7.81 = US$20.81 BILLION @ Fri, 7 May 2021.
So, if a similar Goldfield transaction offer = 1/2% or 0.5% of $20.81 bn
=US 1 4 0. 5 MILLION OR £ 1 0 1. 8 MILLION [ Exchange rate say £1=US$1.38]
-----
BZT MKT CAP £14.15 Million @0.37p , Fri, 7 May 2021 @10:10am
At today*s V-In-S, say, it could be 7.19x = 2.66 PENCE [Example only for discussion]
---
COLIN BIRD INTERVIEW WITH ZAK MIR, ZAK*S SHARE CAFE, THUR, 7 MAY 2021
Mr Bird, Executive Chairman of BZT stated:
"NO SHORTAGE OF SUITORS"
"NOT MANY PROJECTS.." { Similar to what Glencore CEO said today on Bloomberg per my last post]
"COPPER PRICE DOUBLED." { shown as above from the example of the S-In-V]
Comment:
From all the Colin Bird co*s, I have NOT seen any ready for sale with such a high VALUE-IN-SITU as above [Value-in-Situ was used by Edison then].
Moreover, MMIH has commissioned a NEW UPDATED MANKAYAN 2012 JORC at
9.6 Moz gold
2.8Mt Copper
20Moz Silver
As I have shown via a link from the Official JORC site of Australia, the 2004 JORC has been updated to 2012 so at some time, this is now relevent?
On 28 Apr 2021, BZT issued an RNS to state the MMIH deal has been terminated. BZT also said they were consulting legal COUNSEL in Singapore. From yesterday*s interview, Mr Bird informed that MMIH entered into contract and EXPENDITURE per contract has NOT been met, our advice [taken to mean advice given by said Counsel to BZT]. Otherwise, Mr Bird COULD NOT HAVE COMMENTED TO SAY "NO SHORTAGE OF SUITORS" RE: MANKAYAN. On 28 Apr 2021, Mr Bird could NOT comment as he had NOT had legal advice yet. So, it appears that BZT DOES OWN 100% OF MANKAYAN and that MMIH has NO CLAIMS TO BRING GIVEN THE EXPENDITURE WAS NOT MET. As said, BZT could ONLY have transferred 80% of Mankayan on the RTO OF MMIH VIA MMJV INTO ASIAPHOS???The AsiaPhos RTO has fallen through and they issued an RNS on 7 Apr 2021 to the Spore Stock Exchange to state so.
Laurence Read, CEO of BZT in 2019 said that the fiscal issue in Philippines and the price of copper was the reason for the sale of Mankayan to MMIH. THAT IS NO LONGER THE CURRENT STATUS as Philippines LIFTED THE MINING BANK ON 15 APR 2021 [MMIH deal terminated on 8 Apr 2021] and COPPER PRICES NOW $10,000.
-------AWAIT MR BIRD*S FURTHER UPDATE ON MANKAYAN---{Caveat]
Fri, 7 May 2
That’s what I look at not how much a company has risen but their net worth and current m/cap. Bzt is massively undervalued
"GLENCORE CEO SAYS $15,000 COPPER NEEDED TO DRIVE NEW SUPPLY."-Bloomberg, 6 May 2021, 5 hrs agol
https://twitter.com/MY21_Oracle/status/139056628829297492
"We dont have many SHOVEL READY projects, Glasenberg said. You will need higher prices. You will need the so-called $15,000 copper price to encourage a lot more of this difficult investment."
"This means MINERS will have to go to more difficult jurisdictions such as RUSSIA and parts of the copper belt in CENTRAL AFRICA TO FIND NEW MINES. Yet there are a FEW in DEVELOPMENT BUT NONE THE SCALE required to meet FORECASTS for the future DEMAND."
CB delivered another upbeat interview yesterday and Mankayan is now a very valuable asset. As he said, there is 'no shortage of suitors'!
Our market cap is already way behind. If copper keeps going as it is we are going to need some bigger rises just to keep to the ridiculously large gap we currently have.