The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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My average is eur 1.02 So no point in selling. Would rather sink in the ship than selling at 34c. Actually considering to double my holding to reduce my average. think at some stage Santander will put an offer for ALBK.
Jal, I am using pro real time but it only give the SP per pip but with over 10 mil shares traded today and most of the shares traded and with very little affect on the SP, any other day recently a trade of 10,000 shares is moving this, but today a trade of half a mil couldn't move it up a pip? And nearly an extra 4 mil bought shares only moved it up half a pip? Can you think any reason for this?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/albk?countryCode=uk You can see that the price has been moving, and in this we site, look at the chart below the numbers, price has been moving, look at this link but go below the numbers and see the chart. http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=ALBK&share=aldirish_bks
I am trading AIB on the NYSE, but I also bought it as a swing trade on the LSE, there has been 3156,573 shares sold today and 6721,190 bought on the LSE, acording to this web site, but the share price hasnt moved once since 10 oclock this mprning with over 10 mill stocks traded, do you think there is a reason for this? it just moved up one pip after the market closed to 0.41 but when so many shares are traded and the share price is not moving is kinda worrying.
First of all, the price is the equilibrium between supply and demand, if the price is going down is because there is more supply than demand, meaning people is selling and those who are buying are ruling the price. by the way in US is happening the same with the ADR AIB, and the price fell 5% average, but in the other hand yesterday we saw a positive change over 3% in US. Another thing to point out is the difference in price between the England and Ireland in the same ALBK stock. look at the price carefully, 40 cents is very different of 40.3 in England and 39.8 in Ireland. This difference in price 1.3% is big when we are speaking of the same product. In US the ADR is 1.17 US dollars, and there are 2 stocks per ADR the equivalent price is 41.4 cents of Euro. This difference has been normal during the last 2 weeks. At the end the supply and demand are based in expectations, and I am still convinced that ALBK need to be strong as part of the recovery process of Ireland. Even though invest in this volatile stock is decision of each one. People is running away of risk but curiously there are more positive perception of this stock outside Ireland, I hope we are right and the recovery of this bank becomes a reality for the benefit of everybody.
Ther is very high volume in the last two hrs, bettween 1 oclock and 2.30 there have been over 6 million shares bought and sold but the share price hasnt moved from .40 does any body know why that is? has the share price stopped trading?
By Stephen Fidler Here are some interesting questions from an Irish MEP which boil down to this: How come Allied Irish Banks passed the European bank stress test in July and three months later the Irish authorities stepped in to announce a €3 billion capital injection? Alan Kelly, an opposition Labour MEP, has written to European competition commissioner Joaquín Almunia, who oversees state aid programs, posing three questions. Was the bank giving a truly accurate assessments of its projected losses? What kind of tests were applied to AIB’s loan books? For example, did they factor in this any projected National Asset Management Agency discounts to the AIB loan book which should have been known? Was the stress test really a stress test or was it designed to inject some positive sentiment in the European markets? With the Irish taxpayer already being bled dry by the banks, can the Commission be certain that no further capital will be required? Will it publish detailed assessments of how they came to their conclusions? It’s not clear how much Mr. Almunia’s department had to do with the technical design of the stress tests that were coordinated through the Committee of European Banking Supervisors. But Mr. Kelly’s intervention is only the latest to call into question the rigor of the stress test exercise. Allied Irish Bank, Banks, Ireland, Stress Tests
AIB will account for two thirds of the €6.6 billion loans that will no longer be transferred to the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) following the government’s decision to raise the minimum transfer threshold from €5million to €20 million. The bank, which will be effectively nationalised in the coming weeks with the state’s stake expected to increase from 19 per cent to more than 90 per cent, will account for €4.4 billion of the €6.6 billion in loans that will no longer be Nama-eligible. Bank of Ireland will account for the remaining €2.2 billion. The revised Nama arrangements will allow AIB to reduce the multi-billion euro losses that will be crystallised on completing the transfer of its loans to Nama. The transfers are expected to be completed in a single tranche before the end of the year, following a government decision to accelerate the process. The bank will only be required to recognise impairment charges on the loans that remain on its balance sheet when it prepares its financial statements. The Central Bank, however, has told AIB and Bank of Ireland that they must make an appropriate provision for impairments on the loans that are no longer destined for Nama, to ensure that their accounts in future periods reflect the discounts that would have been applied if the loans had been taken on by the agency. In the past both AIB and Bank of Ireland have placed valuations on Nama-bound loans that were at variance with Nama’s valuations. AIB sold loans to Nama for €1.4 billion on July 12 despite having valued them at €1.9 billion in its balance sheet as at June 30, its half-year end. Bank of Ireland, meanwhile, sold loans to Nama on July 16 for €800 million. These loans had been valued at €1.1 billion in its half-year accounts dated June 30. Had the Nama valuations been used in each bank’s accounts, their combined reported losses would have been €800 million higher.
Last posting 3.5M should be 3.5B and 10M should be 10Billion. Amazingly the current qty of common stocks are 1B, that is the reason the current equity will be totally diluted, but even with that, the price book would be 1.24 Euros. We need a great CEO to start the come back. All this is under my limited knowledge. Be cautious with your decisions.
With the current government position, to back up the bank and specially the price of .50 if the market do not want to buy at the target price of .50 the government would buy the stocks, first converting the 3.5M preferred stocks to common stocks and after that the difference to 10M, At least it is what I understood after reading different documents. From my perspective, the government position is part of the reason why the stock price is so low. Now if this situation is similar to US city group had a value of 1 usd and Bank of America 3 usd today after 17 months C = 4.1 and BAC =12.6 round numbers. 4 times the lowest levels. The government who pick up the majority of the stocks in the worst moment has nothing invested in the banks, in some cases the government even made money with this transactions. The difference is that the government never claim to be the owner of the bank and always said that government will support the banks to maintain customers at easy and trust in the system. Eventually C and BAC and many other banks issue stocks to repay the government debt, for one simple reason the management and board of directors wanted the full control of the bank back. Now, In Mexico happened something similar 25 years ago, in that case the situation was terrible, government take control of the banks paying a ridicules amount of money for the banks, it was a take over at even 50% less of book value. years after that with so many politicians putting their hands on the banks, the situations was dramatically bad and the government sold the banks back to the business men, I hope this last scenario does not happen in Ireland. I think the management took so much time to recognize that they needed to issue stocks and now the stockholders are paying the consequences. All this is under my point of view, please read more documents to create your own thinking about it
what will happen if share price remains well below the rights issue price of 0.50. why not buy now instead of waiting for RI
Government owns a Bank?, it is such a bad combination, I hope people from Ireland buys majority of stocks(they have 100 billion in savings, 5% to buy the bank sound possible), it is an excellent deal, the investors will see the returns very fast. But I also hope the politicians get their hands off in order to avoid set backs on the recovery process. Intellectual property in between other intangible assets plus still strong equity levels makes of this bank from my perspective a strong buy. worst is behind, November will be bad, but December will be great!.
Have a read of this, it will explain http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201009300700245781T
we may have seen the bottom of this for now,,,,,,By Feb Next Year,I expect this to be over 1.50 .....A steady rise from here ........
I have been away from this share for a while, I read some of you lately referring to a "Rights" ... if there is a RI planned could anyone please let me know when is it planned for? thanks
Lets hope 0.40 hold as support, if not next support is 0.37 and after that 0.27, then we are back at the low of march 2009, lets hope we get a little good news with this disaster, GL all
By Tiernan Ray More troubles for Ireland: Moody’s Investors Service this afternoon said it placed under review for possible downgrade various covered bonds issued by the mortgage units of Allied Irish Banks (AIB), Bank of Ireland (IRE) and EBS, a day after it cut its ratings on the banks’ senior unsecured credit ratings, which in turn followed a warning about the sovereign credit rating of Ireland.
Ireland’s Woes “(the Irish) GOVENTMENT’S COMMITMENT TO SENIOR BONDHOLDERS DOES NOT RULE OUT A LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT EXERCISE AGREED BY CONSENT” The sentiment of this headline has been picked up in an FT story today: “Ireland hints at bank bond debt deal” (p.8). When it comes to Ireland 7 the FT these days, the glass is always half empty. However, if you read what the regulator actually said, you will see that while indeed he did say that the Irish government’s line on senior debt does not preclude liquidity management agreed by consent, he goes on to say that the “current difficult funding position for both the Irish government and the banking system means one should be very cautious about contemplating such a step in the present crisis, never mind whatever legal and constitutional obstacles would need to be resolved”. And indeed the Minister has just issued a statement aimed at clearing up ANY remaining doubts about the governments intentions. In a nutshell he states that any pending legislation which relates to subordinated debt will ONLY apply to non listed banks i.e. Anglo & Irish Nationwide BUT NOT AIB or BoI and the re are NO plans to make any SENIOR bondholders take part in burden sharing
Loose money to make money, Ireland is on sale. When we talk about the country with more potential to supply Europe with Services and Products at a very competitive price with high quality, you can not think in something else but bright future. Whatsoever, It is painful to be on the current situation, with so high unemployment 13+%, but at the same time is the opportunity for those entrepreneurs to innovate and revolutionize the country. I am with AIB because they are going to stay for long time, supporting new projects and fuel the economy with resources even at the cost of selling assets around the world. Hang on, the worst is behind. Talent people never give up. Rebound is coming.
Allied Irish Banks, plc Prices Public Offering Of 26,700,000 Contingent Mandatorily Exchangeable Notes 8:54pm EDT Allied Irish Banks, plc announced that it has priced a public offering of 26,700,000 contingent mandatorily exchangeable notes (Notes) due November 15, 2010, in connection with the proposed disposal of its approximately 22.4% shareholding in M&T Bank Corporation (M&T) at a price of $77.50 per Note, raising net proceeds of approximately $2.0 billion (EUR1.5 billion). Each Note will be mandatorily exchangeable for one share of M&T common stock (M&T Share) currently owned by Allied Irish Banks, plc. Allied Irish Banks, plc intends to hold an extraordinary general meeting on November 1, 2010 to seek shareholder approval. The proposed disposal is also expected to generate approximately EUR0.9 billion of equivalent equity capital. The Board of Allied Irish Banks, plc intends to use the equivalent equity capital generated from the proceeds of the proposed disposal to meet part of Allied Irish Banks, plc's revised Prudential Capital Assessment Review requirement of EUR10.4 billion. The net cash proceeds will be used as an additional source of liquidity to support Allied Irish Banks, plc's business activities. Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. are acting as underwriters and joint book running managers for the Notes offering.
Just heard a figure today that Irish people have savings of about 100 Billion which I find strangely comforting . The Government will probably be trying its hardest to get it's hands on some of that money .
Will hinge on a FG-FF government during 2011, All bets are off the table if Labour size power which will result in IMf intervention.
EU stress test approved Albk. They will not want to see their stress tests as baseless(hence rendering them invalid) Hence they will make sure AIB does not fail. Secondly Irish Govt cant face the embarrassment of seing this going down. They are prepared to change the rules to see AIB survive.You`ve heard the saying -No bank is too big to fail - This bank will not fail ! The disposal of assets deadline has been shifted coz AIB couldnt dispose MT bank shares and uk assets at right price. This is a private company run as a government department. when and where have you ever heard of a collapsed govt dept. I will keep piling AIB shares at taxpayers cost(sadly)
Book value, book value and book value. 1B common stocks, 3.5B preferred stocks and 10B (min price of .5 Euros), these 10B will be able to be bought by current stock holders, government and third parties. Even that the current stock holders will see the value diluted, the book value will be 1.7 Euros. 8 B euros current equity, plus 10B euros coming from 10B stocks at a price of .0.5 euros plus 5B from assets to be sold (US M&T/ Poland). This bank would be target for a hostile takeover of oversees banks if it was not because the strategy the government setting rules to buy new stocks. I think this is going to be a great deal for the government with the conversion of the 3.5B preferred stocks to common stocks and the 10B additional potential stocks. If Ireland is in the bottom, what I think it is, with very strong people savings and great position to export to Europe, from my perspective there is no other possibility but an aggressive rebound. Having a top gun CEO will be very important to accelerate this process. What do you think? Am I right with my approach?, is this the BAC of Europe?
Many thanks to all who replied to my request for advice !!!