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the AP project was in 2 phases. TV1 and TV2. TV2 was built with only a small lag between it and TV1. The small lag was due to Management looking to expedite the projects as a whole to maximize the policy opportunity. The original intent was to build and commission TV1, and once this is operating satisfactorily, read across any changes to TV2. Unfortunately, Management underestimated the difficuties and commenced the build of TV2 too quickly. A typical trait of too big too soon. As a result, euipemtn was ordered for TV2 that was not proven to operate in TV1. This theme continued, even tho TV1 needed redesigning (as no demo scale operations were carried our prior) , hence the money pit deepened and widened simultaneously.
As with Air Products, VLS core business is not gasification. Its FT. In addition, VLS is not directly involved in the developing the system and has subcontracted the entire design job to a third party - just as AirProducts did. Now, the difference is that AirP has endless cash at hand to throw at this and even after $1bn spent, still couldn't make it work as a system (and the AirP plant was far LESS complex than the proposed VLS plant). So many similarities, but the main difference being that AirP was well funded, unlike VLS.
If you need other examples, google these:
GAIA report reveals billions wasted on gasification over 30 years of failures
and...
UKWIN highlights ‘litany of gasification failures’
Que the "But VLS will be different as they have Shell and BA". Okay....
XPB: The way I read it, they didn't want to continue as the system as was didn't work and they had no clear idea of the cost of rectifying problem. The timing of the decision made the maximum use of available tax breaks. In other words, they decided to get out and timed it to minimize their loss by taking advantage of available tax breaks. AFAIK this was Air Products only attempt to break into this field, it was nto directly involved in developing a working gasification process (it wanted to use the end product) and it has stuck to its core business ever since. Not quite the position that VLS is in, I would suggest. Have you got a better example?
Thurg. So a company wrote off its $1bn project to claim tax breaks? Are you serious? I know the reasons behind the cancelling of the project and the decision to do so had zero to do with tax breaks! But thanks for pointing out that a company with a MCap of $65 billion (OK thats today, nut im sure it was healthy in 2014) and unlimited resources couldn't make is gasification project work. Puts some nice perspective on a loss making start up with a $60MCap...
Nice try.
If you had been following VLS for any length of time you would only too well aware that their PR has historically been almost non-existent - it is one of the few things XPB and I agree about.
XPB: Nice try. However, we are talking 2014 and Air Products currently has a market cap of $65billion, so hardly searching for capital investment and over-reaching themselves. Indeed they have done pretty well since COVID arrived and are a recommended buy. They also withdrew from the project to take maximum advantage of related tax breaks. Got any more examples? Perhaps ones that meet your original criterea - "the way senior management gloss over the fundamentals of basic engineering and testing whilst hoping they can win over the investors."
It's not xpb not answering questions it's this company. For goodness sake what are they doing! In fact if I was the company I would employ him because he answers more questions than they do. I have shares but come on what are they doing!
Not at all. Let’s just mention AirProducrs UK failed waste gasification project that was written off to the tune of $1bn. Air products - you know, one of the worlds most advanced industrial gas companies.. That’s probably the best example of too big, too soon.
XPB: Avoiding the difficult questions?
Nice clean wood, not filthy dirty bin waste. Totally different animal.
I do expect the Red Rock plant to be a success, but unlikely in 2021.
Red Rock Biofuels
Lakeview Project Summary:
?RRB’s first project in Lakeview, Oregon is nearing completion and anticipates start-up in Spring 2021.
Project: Convert 136,000 tons of waste woody biomass into 15.1 million gallons/year of renewable fuels.
Site: Lakeview, OR is ideally situated in large wood basket, next to State Highway 395 and adjacent to short line rail feeding the UP mainline.
Process Design: World class - Incorporates three known technologies – gasification, Fischer- Tropsch, and hydroprocessing. Yields ASTM-approved fuels currently in use globally.
Fuel Offtakes: World class offtake partners.
Funding Sources: Project funded by a combination of bonds and equity.
Strong Management Team: Track record of delivering projects under budget, ahead of schedule, and producing over nameplate capacity. Developed/financed/built 8 renewable fuel plants; >$650 million in construction value; >325 million gal/yr.
XPB: You claim to have "seen it many times" - it being "the way senior management gloss over the fundamentals of basic engineering and testing whilst hoping they can win over the investors." To paraphrase "Yes Minister" name six examples. You might also care to expand on your claim to be a veteran in the waste to energy (electricity) space as you clearly have no interest in the sector other than this board, to judge from your posting profile.
Just a realist and a veteran in the waste to energy (electricity) space who has been through the perils of gasification first hand, seen the way senior management gloss over the fundamentals of basic engineering and testing whilst hoping they can win over the investors.
Seen it many times.
Other that that ‘technicality’ no experience in this game...
Yawn - you know full well expat.
How have others managed to attract hundreds of millions of pound of investment for their waste-to-fuel plants but VLS can't?
You must have shorted this share or something, your behaviour is not normal.
Earlier this year VLS announced they had halved their operating losses and increased their revenue you said it was a bad thing hahaha. out and out de-ramper.
I agree he's most likely from competition . I though maybe a disgruntled ex share holder but the anount of effort he's putting in, he must be getting paid for it.
If the competition were that good they would have to not employ somebody to de-ramp VLS and they would certainly not employ anybody thick enough to only comment on 1 share on a site where you can see peoples history of what they're commenting on?
Laf, it’s part of his job description at LanzaTech , bash the opposition
Expatbrat, would you mind telling me why you have an lse account and the only share you comment on is this one where every post is aimed at trying to dramp? Its almost as if this account exists with the sole purpose to slate VLS...
More nonsense from Sensetalka.
“The process is proven at scale”....is it? Please point us all to a fully operating waste to jet fuel project. I think you’ll find (if you care to look) that no such plant is operating.
To add, if someone else manages to make one work, that doesn’t automatically mean the VLS project will work.
Note these comments are all from the angle of a financier. Given VLS’s core expertise is technology development and not building half billion pound plants, said financier will be skeptical of their ability to pull it off.
No major project milestone news due until next year although we can expect updates from various meetings and committes Velocys are a part of. Personally I think a lot of people have hedged their money towards covid stocks. Once a vaccine is found and/or mass testing in place other industries will begin to pick up pace and focus will come back to humanities biggest problem - climate change and investment which has slowly leeched out will come flooding back in.
The process is proven at scale, in-fact competitors are building waste-to-jet-fuel plants outside of the UK right now so we don't have to worry about that, despite what some scaremongerers will have you believe. The scale of the Altalto site is also perfect, any bigger and there would be grave concerns about traffic movements etc... and any smaller then the economics aren't there.
It won't make you an overnight millionaire this one, it's more one for the bottom drawer.
All this garbage about hydrogen planes and electric planes is just a distraction from our resident deramper also, that requires complete redesigns of aircraft and infrastructure, not to mention years and years worth of safety testing. We're decades away from that whereas green jet fuel is the perfect bridging technology which will help us make aviation sustainable in the meantime.
You need to do more research before investing then once you hold you can ignore daily fluctuations in SP and derampers & be confident in yourself. Have the courage of your convictions.
Sorry to pst without actually providing any info Kev, but wondering on this myself.
Few weeks back I anticipated a drop below 5p to 4p or less. Looking at the charts and past activity, it looks closer to a drop now than it ever has. I'm hoping I'm wrong as this is the largest stake i have in my portfolio right now. I'm down 25% from 8p so far and my finger is hovering over the button to sell. Would be great to hear some very positive news to at least get me back to 8p.
Hi all,
Is there any news due for VLS today/near future or is the next news due next year now?