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See TW has an update on his views of VDTK. Also have the shorters back in town on ADVFN.
VDTK need to put a SP rescue package in like Rushi Sunak will need to do in order to pull the company from the dulldrums. It has been over 2 months since the last non damaging RNS. Transformational communciation is key now or the f**king shorters will win again. VDTK do not deserve it IMO.
Waiting 'patiently' as always. Nothing to report, nothing to discuss. Seems to be a pattern emerging across the PF at the moment. Something has to change soon.
With regard to GISPVs another important factor to consider is what the capital costs/margins will be vs the competition ( CIGS/PERC/N-type IBC/Pe enabled cells) My analysis suggests that the COP of GISPVs could be significantly lower than competitors as the production will use existing equipment rather than requiring the deployment of new expensive MOCVD equipment . Combine that with potentially significantly higher GISPV efficiency levels and you have a sustainable competitive advantage for VDTK vs other flex SPV producers. If VDTK can also scale capacity in the next few years and aggressively reduce silicon procurement costs, then they are in a v strong competitive position. With a mkt cap of £28m, the risk reward appears pretty compelling despite the 50% retrace in the SP from the ATH.
Based on PH's vimeo interview in June I am optimistic that we will see significant news on the Paragraf JDP in the coming weeks/months. There has been speculation about whether GISPVs can reach 30-35% efficiency levels. My sense from talking to researchers in the field is that this is achievable ( a combination of removing the metal busbars, improved conductivity and reduced efficiency deterioration due to better thermal conductivity in the graphene layer) I doubt whether Paragraf will specify the exact timeline for commercialisation (too many variables still in play) but I suspect that it may be sooner than the mkt expects and Perovskite enabled SPVs will rapidly be eclipsed by GISPVs in the niche flex mkt. Needless to say this has potentially significant implications for VDTK as I suspect they jointly control the IP on the flex GISPVs which have been developed in the JDP with Paragraf over the last 24 months ( Paragraf - Simon Thomas/Ivor Guiney have filed 11 of the key patents on process technology for GISPVs which cover all segments of the SPV mkt) The likelihood of competitors being able to backward engineer the GISPV process technology seems fairly remote. GISPVs give VDTK a USP/Moat and could be the catalyst for institutional investors to take a stake in VDTK which in turn could trigger a rerate in the SP.
Great posts Cat.
This is frustrating but you have highlighted why it is worth being patient.
Not much good has come from anywhere this year but companies are still looking to the green future and how they will play their part in climate change. VDTK are well placed in a very large market to benefit.
50 t/pd increasing to 300t/pd
Yes VDTK's flex SPVs aren't unique and there is competition ( Solbian, DAS, etc) which is well documented. The key is the installed capacity ( DAS 55MW, Solbian 15MW?, VDTK 55MW+) v latent demand ( artisanal mining 4-8GW, O&G 2GW, transport 100MW, telecommunication masts, solar car ports etc etc) Flex SPV demand far outstrips current supply and the fact that VDTK can shift from say PERC to higher efficiency n-type IBC cells is an advantage at this stage of the mkt development. Not having a USP in the next 2-3 years isn't a big deal because end mkt demand is exploding and VDTK can target high margin niche mkts where they have a competitive edge.
Graphene integrated SPVs will likely become a game changer. Efficiency levels are potentially going to be in the 30-35% range and Perovskite enabled cells aren't likely to be able to compete ( perovskite has durability issues, higher capital costs and producers like Oxford PV probably aren't going to be able to offer customers extended warranties on a par with VDTK) Interestingly Swift Solar in the US which is also pushing flex Perovskite cells, is targetting the drone mkt where short product life cycles mean they won't need to offer extended (5yr+) warranties.
So when will GISPVs be commercialised? That is the proverbial $64m question. As yet we don't know but hopefully we'll get an update in the coming weeks. If the PH interview is to be believed then commercialisation could be a lot sooner than the market expects and it would undoubtedly give VDTK a USP which could unlock new mkts.( lap top PCs, EVs etc)
A final point - worth having a chat with the few clients whom VDTK have signed up like Black Tulip Minerals in Peru. They cite the fact that there were no competitive tenders from other players when they were looking to move to renewable solar solutions for their energy needs and shifting to VDTK's flex SPVs was a 'no brainer' in terms of diesel cost savings. VDTK's product should ship in Dec/Jan so it will be interesting to get BTMN's feedback once they are up and running at the Piura site in Peru. BTMN's Initial capacity is running at 50 b/pd and they have indicated that further orders will be placed with VDTK as they scale capacity to 300 b/pd in 2021. Hopefully they will pave the way for other mining companies to shift from wet to dry fuel solutions and purchase VDTK's SPVs.
Agree with the 2nd half of your post but the 1st? This is not new tech, nothing really groundbreaking at this point either. It's light and quite flexible, what else? Aussies have been powering homes and businesses with solar for quite some time you'll find, as have lots of other parts of the world. I am a holder in the company and have been adding of late so I'm definitely aligned to an increase in share price but it seems logical now to hire a full-time sales team and capitalise on the product you've brought to market. Or not I guess if you are soon to announce imminently a much better version of your current product.
With a new product which clients in key target verticals ( mining, oil & gas, transport) are unfamiliar with, it takes time to seed and educate the market. I suspect trials (1-3 mnths?) need to be completed before client BODs can be convinced of the compelling economic and environmental benefits of shifting from wet (diesel) to dry solutions in the shape of VDTK's powermat lightweight flex SPVs. Frustrating but such is the nature of moving a business from 'proof of concept to full commercialisation. Patience required. Rome wasn't built in a day.
3.5 years on from the IPO in Aug 2017 investors have the opportunity to buy VDTK shares at pretty near the original 9p IPO price despite all the progress that has been made in the mean time: proof of concept - IEC certification - establishment of 55MW production facility at Lainate - appointment of experienced commercially focussed CEO - establishment of global 18 strong commission driven salesforce - receipt of first contracts in mining, oil&gas and marine sectors - continued progress on commercialisation of graphene integrated SPVs via Paragraf JDP- explosion in demand for flex SPVs in new mkts as Gvts increase incentives to encourage shift to renewable energy - prospect of profitability in 2021. All for 9p/£28m mkt cap as was the case 3.5 years ago. Finally the stars and the moon appear to be aligning for VDTK - right product in the right place at the right time with the right strategy and the right management to exploit the huge market opportunity and deliver shareholder value.
If ever there was a stock that needed an update from the Board, it is this. Silence is deafening, apart from the twitter highlights of deals we are not involved in. Yes the market is big, the world knows this, what it doesn't know is what part this company is going to play in it. Time to hire full time, fully engaged, B2B sales professionals. Speculate = Accumulate