Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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"In the meantime reflect on this - with all the uncertainty the market cap at the moment is £247m - if we do get some positive news that should rise closer to what it was at the start of August £1000m or 15p per share.
But, if their is a dilution element the market cap gets basically shared therefore with 50% dilution the SP wouldn't rise to 15p but just to 7.5P"
But the expectation from brokers was the price would rise on completion of a finance deal to around 40p so at that rate even with 50% dilution we would still more than likely have 20p if a partner came in to finance and complete the deal. Which makes the present price a bit ridiculous….on a positive note----
As much as I want to believe it. I can’t see a government guarantee coming in the short term and if I’m honest I don’t think there should be. This is a private company whose attempts to raise funds have failed. There was a miscalculation on costs which changed the funding reqs. The funders don’t agree that the risk vs reward is worth the wait. Even with a guarantee from the government to allow us to sink shafts there is still risk in the process, so whilst everyone keeps saying this is not a government loan it is a guarantee, there are still significant construction risks to the build, hence there is risk to the treasury for the guarantee and they may be (currently are) unwilling to accept.
The numbers long term do however stack up and it is likely the mine will be completed, just a question of how much we manage to retain and if the UK govt retain any major tax income as it is also IMO likely the mine would be completed with foreign money and be foreign owned by the point it is delivering product. Hence jobs will come back, government will spin that they helped will spin what a fantastic UK resource POLY4 is etc.... but as a country we’ll miss out on Tax that we really need.
I don’t envy the government staff making these investment decisions but don’t see anything thus far which makes me think they’ll change their stance. Bailout of PIs isn’t what the funding/guarantees are for, but if it can be demonstrated through a new partner that the risk profile has significantly changed then maybe there is a chance albeit slim.
“”It is very sad that no one wants to be invested longer than 6 weeks””
Tony, are you invested or not?
When this project was started Cameron hadn’t even offered a referendum, no one had hear of Brexit, most of us hadn’t hear of Theresa May and Boris was a Baffin on have I got news for you.
I think brexit has every thing to do with the delay in getting stage 2 finance. The government can’t even implement changes to probate they announced last November! They still haven’t put it into a finance bill. It was supposed to have been active in April.
I am hopeful things will happen soon after brexit. I know I’m not heavily invested here, but I do want this project to succeed. I was invested to 40k and felt the SP was running ahead of the project. It is very sad that no one wants to be invested longer than 6 weeks, hedge funds and short term Investing ( gambling?) is not healthy.
I will be invested again some day.
Minesinthemine
I would agree that CF has to be cautious with the press but getting media attention to help push the Government into issuing Government guarantees is also very important and if that involves an element of risk so be it.
Chilling, your response is exactly what I mean. There are no promises for news at the end of the month. That was a press article / interview where CF said he was ‘hopeful’. It was not an RNS or a commitment. So what happens if/when we pass into November and there is no news.
The board and CF in particular need to cautious with any press and any dates. And if we are able without causing a situation where all our negotiations are being done in the open we should be releasing news via RNS’s. I would argue that if we have made positive changes to cash flow, partner contracts etc... to optimise cash flow then that is price sensitive info and we should announce it in a positive way. If we have not managed to optimise and we will run out of cash before Mid-March then that is also price sensitive and should be announced. Plus given the negativity even if we are just on plan we should announce that we have positively executing the first phase of cost mgmt. we shouldn’t have the CEO going to the press setting false expectations on dates for news, berating PIs and BBs and a PR team not more firmly rebutting bad articles like the ‘going private’ article.
To summarise there is no commitment on news by end of the month and we need to stop fake news and need SXX and in particular our CEO to focus on the job in hand and those around him to manage positive reporting smarter.
Its not nice being in limbo land like this but to be fair we have been promised some indication of future plans by the end of the month so we will have to be patient.
In the meantime reflect on this - with all the uncertainty the market cap at the moment is £247m - if we do get some positive news that should rise closer to what it was at the start of August £1000m or 15p per share.
But, if their is a dilution element the market cap gets basically shared therefore with 50% dilution the SP wouldn't rise to 15p but just to 7.5P
Also we have to be mind full that in the meantime the shorts may try to pull the SP down another step - especially when articles like the one in The Mail appear - so beware stop losses.
It has been 1 month since since the Sept 17th announcement/call. At that point no viable financing offer to move ahead with JPMC. However lots of actions for the board. We need some clarity on what is going on.
1. Progress update on the restructuring. Have some positive things come from the prioritisation? Have some partners helped more than intended? Is MTS progress still moving on? What has happened in the month? We had the Qatar supply agreement, but what about anything else? Even just formal confirmation of heads that have been rescued, the resources and types being kept on etc.. More than one partner in discussion... etc..
2. More positive press and noises. Having CF spout out about PIs and BB’s, misled investors and lack of government support is not good press. When bad press is out firm rebuttals would be useful inc context. The recent ‘private’ comments I am hoping could be in relation to cCprnish Lithium just being crowdfunded and being dismissive of the markets . In short, how can CF complain about PIs and BBs when there is no news other than the press articles constantly painting doom and gloom.
3. 5 months to go, remind everyone there is 5 months to go. Not the press interview where CF states he is ‘hopeful’ of some news by end of October. Again setting expectations in the press when only weeks ago the positioning was all about working through priorities for cost mgmt
Bottom line, the company has never hit a financial date so has a bad track record in that respect. Now more than ever they need to be careful with dates and expectations and managing at least ‘some positive press or we may as well all sleep walk to administration in March. Whilst CF picks up another 6 mths salary. We need POSITIVE actions from CF and he along with the board needs to earn that salary, be respectful to PIs that got SXX this far, leverage every relationship he has and the team need to manage the press relations far far better.
Short version. What has happened this month? we have 5 more left to get a deal. Spend time on that rather than giving the press more ammunition. Focus please.
As an aside. If a ‘partnership’ came in claiming to help drive the mine, all Shareholders approved and they took 51%. Could they not then simply choose to take private? (Notwithstanding any potential legal action from the 49%)