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4000 BOPD by YE seems reasonable. Here's a reminder of PPC's prediction that they published just over a year ago with the 2018 Results, on 23rd May 2019.
Outlook:
· President remains on track to achieve year end exit target of some 4,900 boepd
· Fully funded US$50 million 2019/2020 Work Programme: - 15 new wells, some 20 workovers with pipeline and infrastructure works - Programme set to deliver 50% exit production growth year on year
· In Paraguay, the farm-out process continues whilst preparations are underway in any event to enable drilling operations to commence at Delray Main in late Q4 2019 or Q1 2020
· Jefferson Island licence is progressing with seismic re-interpretation scheduled to be completed by the end of June with drilling now expected to commence in H2
· The drive for material gas production from Rio Negro continues with positive progress being achieved with intriguing new potential prospects identified some of which will be addressed by drilling before the end of the year
Brasso - this was from the 3rd march RNS:
'As a result of the installation of a larger scale compressor, and the opening up of more shut-in wells in Estancia Vieja due in Q2 2020, it is projected that from June Group production should be boosted by a further 800 boepd. In such a scenario, this would by or around the end of H1 2020 result in some 2,000 boepd total net gas production (12 MMscft/d) from President's Neuquen basin assets thereby boosting aggregate oil and gas production net to the Company to 4,000 boepd excluding the impact of drilling results to come in Argentina during H2 2020. '
This was part answered by the Trafigura Q&A of 3rd June:
Q: So what's next for President?
A: In no particular order:
(i) new compressors and infrastructure for gas in Rio Negro in operation at or around the
end of Q3, slightly delayed as a result of the dislocation of supply chains included in
importation of parts as a result of Covid-19
Hence my enquiry with investor relations.
It is not clear, but I think we are waiting to see what of the above work needs to be completed, and what the final outcomes are once completed.
Hence I've estimated current production at 3,000 boepd.
Year end production at 4,000 boepd (i.e. as per RNS of 3rd March - though this could be brought forward to Oct?)
And I've added the 2 new wells production to Q12021 - hence 5,000 boepd by March 2021.
We await their guidance in Q3 - I hope July.
What is the latest on the 1000 BOEPD of extra gas production as per the 12th March RNS? I recall it was delayed until July but cannot see it in the recent RNS.
'President reports that gas production from Rio Negro is now in excess of 1,000 boepd (6 MMScft/d) and building. President reiterates that it is on target to achieve 2,000 boepd (12 MMscft/d) of gas production by the end of H1 2020.'
It is also strange the RS did not mention this additional 1000 BOEPD that was planned for H1 2020 in his recent presentation?
https://www.presidentenergyplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/200623_PPC-Presentation-v3-FINAL-RED.pdf