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Don’t feed the Troll, TheTexan!
Thanks Tex for taking an interest ;)
It feels like your hanging on my every word LOL
Reality here is shareprice heading for single figures if they don't get their act together, the longer it drags on the more shareholders will get spooked and sell.
As for TD, well he'll be sitting quiet until he gets golden handshake for all the "good" work he has put in over the years. Maybe replace "good" with , well I can think of a few more apt words to describe his time at the helm, none that wouldn't get left in by the mods.
Too much speculation not enough fact, in a nutshell, shareprice only going one way.
When you say, 'I've said it before'. There really is no need to say it again.
"I'll stock with 22.75p as fair value for PMO according to the offer."
Be my guest but thanks for sharing the other perspective - 8p.
It's good to see the balanced thinking.
An SP in the 20s after the new company has formed is, without any doubt in my Fugu mind, a dream only. Definitely a puffed-up estimate.
At least TD is have to sell (13th Oct) his shares at rockbottom prices....well I am assuming he HAS to sell as he is "stepping down"
Change on short tracker with White box Advisors" increasing their short on the 13th Oct to.
Decent sell (UT though) of 120k at the closing bell
Not feeling confident we have fully bottomed out yet. Too late for me will have to ride it out.
Rgds Sft
Another mistake,
This is wrong ---- Sp in todays money between 24.5-27.5p (5% - 5.4%) ----
Mcap would be 245-275mln and divided by share in issue 926mln it gives SP 26.5 - 29.7p
So in good days Sp should go above 60p in todays money.
LOL
Couple calculations mistakes more and we will go above 100p :D
I made mistake, PMOnewco dept is in dollars so £2.45bln
So..
£7.57bln - £2.45bln PMOnewco debt = £5.12bln PMOnewco Mcap. Methinks that should be minimum valuation. So Sp in todays money between 24.5-27.5p (5% - 5.4%)
Meaning in good days PMOnewco should go above 50p
And AkerBP is down 50% from beginning of 2020
https://akerbp.com/en/investor/the-share/share-performance/
I would say in post covid days, PMO newco could trade as todays sp 40-50p
Aker BP has 4bln$ debt, current Mcap 54.5bln NOK = 5.88bln$
4bln$ debt + 5.88bln$ Mcap = 9.88bln $ valuation = £7.57bln
£7.57bln - £3.2bln PMOnewco debt = £4.37bln PMOnewco Mcap. Methinks that should be minimum valuation. So Sp in todays money between 22-24p
Have you got your pantomime season worked out yet? You're the perfect evil fairy! Pity your analysis is so awry! I'll stock with 22.75p as fair value for PMO according to the offer.
I've said this before, but one of the most worrying things is there's dissent amongst the creditors.
By that I mean, they can neither reach a consensus over the deal or subsequent refinancing if it fails.
That could leave the company in a horrible limbo situation. Neither a wayforward or deal about it's future financing.
We've seem a bit of that so far, haven't we? Very limited support for the deal. I guess we can't be sure of that. That's why I think the next test date for the cov's could be interesting. Possibly illuminationg over how much consensus exists.
It's always possible they could refinance, or provide an extension, but it feels very, very unlikely. I mean, really how likely could it be?
The NewCo deal has the creditors finger prints all over it, I can't imagine that it won't either go through with shareholder blessing or get walked through by the Board and creditors.
But as you say, anything is possible in theory, that's why these situations are quite fascinating.
Excluding hedge funds it's a relatively small community, so I guess they all know each other and work together pretty often, so it's likely the Creditor Committee has a good idea of what's going to float before it's goes to a vote. That's why I think it will get the creditor 75% acceptance.
Creditors all running in different directions would be very difficult indeed. That would be a nightmare for the company I would imagine.
It’s also worth adding that the creditors could reject the deal and instead agree an extension or new refinancing. No one knows which way this will go. Anything could happen, as long as it pulls our chestnuts out of the fire. Lol
Yeah, but it doesn't say that does is it?
" the newco needs to have a market cap. of at least US$3.38 billion for the deal to be at a premium to the pre-deal valuation."
"NEEDS"
So all it's telling us, is the NewCo will have US$3.2 billion of debt.
EV =MCAP+DEBT
SO EV = $6.56M???
"is the new mcap of newco according to this article..."
"which would give an enterprise value of $6.58 billion"
But, don't we know that enterprise value aren't the same as market cap? Unless of course you think they are, and that means PMO's enterprise value is only £120m?
Doesn't is actually say, the new market cap HAS to be at least US$3.38 billion for it to be at a premium, not that it will be?
It's at least clear that the NewCo will still have a lot of debt. US$3.2 billion of it.
is the new mcap of newco according to this article...
""
Based on Premier’s immediate pre-merger announcement share price, its market cap. was US$184 million. With its shareholders set to own 5.45% of the new entity (assuming that the creditors take the maximum cash payment available), the newco needs to have a market cap. of at least US$3.38 billion for the deal to be at a premium to the pre-deal valuation. The newco will have net debt of US$3.2 billion on deal completion, which would give an enterprise value of $6.58 billion.
""
https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/special-reports/19102020/westwood-global-energy-group-comments-on-premier-oil-reverse-takeover-by-chrysaor--part-one/