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Hi OlderandWiser. I certainly don’t think 12p is a Bargain. Esp under these circumstances. The Corona Lockdown is becoming very depressing. Many NHS Operations cancelled and the Disruption caused will Lag on into the future.
I say another 3wks (6) because I believe that’s when the Negative Effect of the Lockdown on NSF and the Economy will begin to increase exponentially. It may well go on longer ?
We shall see. We have to remain Positive.
Appreciate the reply, Fastfood. I'm not from the industry, but have witnessed over several cycles going back to the Great Bear of 1973/4, the extreme damage done to the banks , secondary banks and finance houses from consumer defaults rising sharply in a recession. Hence my general question. The prize will go to those who survive, as they they will able to exploit the future upside to this depression. You are suggesting that NSF fits the bill as good as anyone in this necessary consumer credit sector. So it's just a case of determining the point of maximum pain for the business as the covid-19 ripples through the country. 3 more weeks of total lockdown? Hmmm. Not sure.
Olderandwiser. Do you know how many New Leads EDL get on average per Annum ? I do.
The Reason why Non Standard Credit is robust is its ability to adapt to Customer Needs. It is no problem to extend the Term of the Loan.
However I do agree with you in part that the Lockdown would become a concern to me re the Industry / if was to go beyond 6wks thus Accounting for more than 10% of the Year / meaning any Recovery gap could grow to far for the Year.
But so is the same for any Industry.
I think it’s widely recognised that NSF will Start producing Bottom Line Profits of £20-£25m but that should be whittled down to Zero 2019 with the PFG bid and Writedown.
The Question is if they can Service the Debt and cont to come in with £20-£30m per Annum of Profit / then will the £40m MCap fit ?
Investors were happy to take Woodfords Share at 40p last year, and they understand the Industry and know the model promotes potential Dividend Growth over the long term.
MCTRADE, aren't you concerned about a sharp, sustained rise in non-performing loans amongst NSF's customers in the circumstances of a prolonged national lock-down?
Fastfood, Thankyou for the info.
I agree to set a finance company up with the customer base is worth more than £40m. I have a small business doing the same products, I have been doing it for nearly 30 years and started from scratch.
I will be staying for the long term and building my holdings upto 35p, the business has cashflow that i understand and i can watch it grow.
MCTRADE. You’re welcome.
RNS TUE 20 AUG Half Year Report 2019 to JUNE 30.
PFG Takeover Charge Exceptional Item £12.7m.
Also a Goodwill Writedown Charge (I only partially understand this) about £12.5m.
So £25m out of the business for 2019. Half of that due to the Writedown was unavoidable. The PFG bid was a bizarre one but Woodford has gone now and I think he was the main driver / given his loss in faith re the PFG meltdown.
Re the future. Set your own Loan Company up from scratch. IT infrastructure. Staff. Funding. Accreditation. Experience. Investment Institutions on the Books. 3 Dynamic Business models to Mitigate Risk with Option of a 4th !! See how far £40m gets you ?
It’s not a Given, but a Takeover Target from Chinese Home Credit now that Brighthouse have Vacated ?
TTFN.
Forgive me Pinki, but you don’t appear to me to be an Investor or would be Investor in NSF ? So what are you doing on here ?
If you want to bring Doom on the Company then may I ask you, when you believe Full Employment will be forced on HC, Name a Date.
Also let’s have your prediction on the SP in 12 Month ?
There you go. I’ve only asked you to commit on 2 things.... We wait..
Fastfood, thanks for the details i will have a look for the article.
Pinki, NSF is more than a WCC business, i think that when Loans at Homes was purchased the price was paid too much, employed agents can work but is hard to find driven people who are limited by a wage. The question is how much is each business worth and why would NSF want to buy Provi then to relist Loans at Home as a separate PLC. How much is NSF worth if WCC was sold?
Covid 19 has brought changes to all businesses, the WCC business works better than most finance companies with their customers, people are people and not just a number.
Cattles PLC which owned Shop a Check used to have a combination of self employed and employed agents which worked well.
MCTRADE. What will the cost be to NSF making the agents employed, which HMRC are in dialogue with after after they did. From a revenue (govt) and regulatory point of view I would think employed agents will happen in the not to distant future. The FCA alluded to this in their letter toJVK during the takeover.
MCTRADE. The PFG Takeover attempt cost NSF nearer £20m. It’s in a previous Statement by NSF.
MCTRADE would like to hear your thoughts on provident employing all their agents and now in dialogue with HMRC . This was at considerable cost to provident which they seem to have absorbed pre COVID issues. The cost of making the agent workforce employed and then in incidental costs of NI and pension cannot be understated. How do you see this affecting the HC side of the business when industry insiders are already expressing concerns that post COVID will change door to door collections. With today’s guidance from the FCA advising of payment holidays for customers showing distress it must be hitting collection rates dramatically, even with card collections. You mention you are in the industry, how are you finding this, is it harder in the north than the south ?
There was a lot of buying by a Neil Utley taking up a 7% position end of March, This was before the price fell. I think i would be buying more if i was him to average out.
The groups full year announcement is due 28th April instead on March and expects to be in line with expectations for the year end 31/12/2020. This was a request from FCA. So if it was like for like and take away the costs of 9m from the Provi takeover then there is plenty of meat left.
Will keep on adding these