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Agreed Chris and Falk. We should not expect a quick recovery on this, but I have to agree that the results posted no real surprises that would make me doubt holding this company for the long term - perhaps aside from the fact that their short-term tangible assets (cash + receivables) barely cover their short-term accounts payable. Of course they do have a lot of sources (government, undrawn facilities) to aid with this issue.
I am down by 35% on them, but holding due to long-term prospects. Anyone predicting the short-term, or even long-and mid-term short price is full of ****. The value of the company is a different matter, and I have faith in their long-term prospects due to what you outlined, Chris.
Chrishar Yes i agree ." This is not a luxury goods business, this is essential travel for the least well-off in society."
My point is that essential travel will not be what it was before the pandemic , peoples habits are changing and the huge unemployment will affect all. The airline have been quoted as saying air travel will take years to get back to 2019 levels. Have you been on a NEX coach in the last 2 years.
comeonvog you simply refuse to listen. Right now we are not going to see growth. When investing you are looking at the company valuation and should be investing in companies that are undervalued. If you believe, for example, in the next 24 months NEX can work its way back to where it stood in January 2020 (so no not tomorrow, next week, next month or even next year), then you'll see a 200% increase on your investment.
There will be people who CHOOSE to avoid the coach over the next six months or so but the majority of those that use NEX's services do not have a choice. This is not a luxury goods business, this is essential travel for the least well-off in society.
Worthashot You have to factor in the market skulduggery, there was a comment on here yesterday that the market is always right , i hope you don't believe that for one minute. How to price a company in a pandemic with falling foot fall. Autumn starts in just over 2 weeks. Where do you see growth.
Ultimately the view on NEX share price attractiveness is a personal perception on the outlook for the pandemic and impact on personal behaviours/travel etc. No investor can say there is not a degree of risk obviously. But there are a few things that are of interest in my view. If you compare 3 month NEX performance to, say, the First Group. You will see that NEX is underperforming here. First Group have made clear that they have a question mark over ongoing viability even in the short/medium term. So that is an illogical performance outcome. NEX have provided the opposite update, namely that they have stress tested their financial commitments Q4 2020 to Q2 2021 and could absorb a second wave. Compare again the performance of NEX to many airlines over the last few months, and again it underperforms. Do we really believe that airlines with enormous debt gearing, a much higher reliance on capacity fulfilment and their scale of exposure to the pandemic internationally are in a better place than a coach company? Possible in some scenarios, but improbable. From a personal perspective I saw little in the results that took me by surprise. Institutional investors still seem to believe a 12 month out turn of 300+ for this stock and I tend to agree, looking both in detail at the results and the comparisons in the wider market.