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Nice to see more interest in IOG, and more informative posts!
Personally i think that IOG will be pumping out the gas at max possible rate that is technically possible, as therm prices goes to 200p.; with the first field coming in at 58 MM scf/d and we add Blythe flow to that, i would not be surprised to see production by December reaching 90 MM scf/d.
But taking the flow rate of 70, at 100p per therm, i calculate a monthly income of 700k sterling per day (21million per month) - can anyone please check my figures?
At 200p per therm, this is over 40million pounds per month income!!!
Latest figures from FinnCap (26 august 2021) give revenue of 10 million 2021 and 82 million for 2022??
At production of 70 and 100p therm, my figures are 42 million in 2021 and 252 million for 2022.!!
And these figures could even turn out to be conservative!!
comments please??!!
VistaMan,
Phase 1, Peak production: 70 MMcfe/d³ (~12 kboe/d) net
Include Phase 2
50% Operator of Core Project with 6 gas fields totalling 457 Bcfe
• Peak annual average gross production of 140 MMcfe/d
• Eight further incremental assets across a focused Southern North Sea (SNS) portfolio
That is my understanding going forward, the latter part taken from page 14.
GG
GG, Could I ask for your take on the expected production rate for the Phase 1 Project? I have assumed that a figure of 70 MM scf/d NET from page 4 of the April 21 investor presentation was for Phase 1. With the reported flow results for Blythe at 58 MM scf/d Gross it seemed to me that 70 was reasonable figure for the 3 fields?
Vista
Thanks everyone. Good and interesting posts.
Edgar222
There was a good report on 6th Sept, masterinvestor.co.uk IOG-Blythe and Saturn Banks ready to go stellar.
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/iog-blythe-and-saturn-banks-ready-to-go-stellar/
Analyst Jonathan Wright estimates for 2022 that revenue will increase strongly to £82m + with a profit of £38.5m +, this is based on winter prices of remaining about 100p / therm.
Bacton Gas closed yesterday at 190p / therm and no sign of dropping anytime soon.
IOG have to be on for a potential of much higher figures given the current and expected gas prices going forward. £50m+ annual profit has to be a realistic figure for 2022/23.
VistaMan,
This is for normal a quiet board but probably won’t remain that way when IOG announce first gas and lots of new people jump aboard.
It went crazy when RRE made the 20p bid and then quietened down.
I prefer it quiet, the long term holders know what its all about and how close we are to first gas at last. Seems like perfect timing for a producing gas supply company to be entering the market
Blockchainer
If you sold out at these prices then that must have been 3-4 years ago and lots of things happened since then, some good and definitely some bad.
LOG debacle, RRE offer, capital raise and shares offer, partnership with CalE, sales agreement with Gasprom.
I have remained a holder throughout and did sell some (20%) around the time you did to reduce my risk then bought them all back and many more around 10-14p
A quick look on the IOG Fundamental tab will show you the figures your looking for, 489m shares in issue, current mkt cap £133m which does not even cover the value of the pipeline and NUI that have just been installed.
Once Elgood / Blythe go onto production in Q4 and revenue starts coming in that figure has to rerate and by quite a margin.
Bacton Gas at close yesterday 189.65p / therm !!!
Saturn Banks is FDP and financials were based on around 40p / therm to be a viable and profitable proposition, we are heading into a marker where we are 400% up on that.
The share price will rerate to a realistic level on production for sure in Q4
GG
Welcome to IOG Vista.
I think the board is so quiet because like a long term marriage we have a pretty good idea of each others thoughts and aspirations.
We have stuck together through some major issues and are now just sitting back waiting for our windfall.
The heard might arrive at some point but there are no rampers or de-rampers on here yet ! just some very well informed experienced and polite investors.
Cheers