If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Archy-the problem in looking back at the Market cap history is that all the back plotted graphs are now wrong and I dont know another source of the data.... But I totally agree with Physicals figures (and totally disagree with Dehghanis!).
The point about the rights issue raising liquidity is all well and good but the liquidity was ok pre covid and that had a market cap. Why now that market cap should be higher than it was then is not clear to me so I'm sticking with 340 as a target. Good to see the movement. GLAH
The BAU price I get is £1.80 based on 2023 consensus forecast from Hyve website:
https://hyve.group/Investors/Forecasts
Assume EPS of £0.10/share in 2023.
PE 18
EPS 0.10
Share Price 1.80
There's upside, especially with a conservative EPS, but another share dilution through a rights issue or PIPE will have impact unless purely for growth and acquisition.
No clue about the rise, but can't complain )
Volume looks unusually good. May be news coming
bbeettaa - the problem is its impossible to factor in any impact. You might guess they would lose 10% or 25% of their business, or you might guess, actually, their relative position in the market will have strengthened and they'll gain 10% or 25%.
The point is, no -one really knows so for me the pre covid/pre-dilution price is a reasonable benchmark to base a target around. This has worked well on other shares in my portfolio - including MNZS in the aviation sector - so see no reasons why it can't here.
I think physical's point about the market cap is a good one though. Is it possible to see the full history on that anywhere?
Same with me, I don't mean to sound hostile either, so not to worry :) I don't know / we don't know the answers is all I'm trying to share.
Do we even know the cause of the rise today? :)
I have some shares in IAG - long termer ;)
I have actually increased exposure to airlines, and Rolls - Royce. I do believe in full recovery and on top of it, there is crazy Private Equity for the Industry at the moment. Acquisition market lively and with big players like Informa - UBM - Reed - Comexposium consolidating, Hyve is in a unique position and a golden opportunity for any investor. Also a big plus not factored in yet are events organising companies being perceived increasingly as tech companies, because of their experiments with online market making solutions. Think competing with Alibaba in a sense.
I know a few things about the industry, much more than what I know about investing unfortunately. For me, the airlines are closer to gambling, but I am confindent on Hyve, and other investments from the events industry.
By the way, I hope I dont sound hostile. I appreciate the challenging approach, as all debates should be.
With the rights issue - it isn't wrong, check HL as well. The price suggested by @dehghani isn't incorrect, assuming you factor in no impact from Covid.
We all want it to rise and return to normal, but to not factor any impact? Brave or stupid. I've already attended 4 digital conferences this year - will that continue? Who knows.
I have been trading Hyve (ITE) for longer than 20 years. Google is wrong. It was the highest at 2013, and the price was around 310p. I got a summer house. It was the lowest at 2009, around 56p. I had a loan recalled and had to sell shares at the lowest point of the crisis.
Don't get lost in numbers. Calculate from Mcap.
PRICE: 145p
MCAP: £350M
What should the price be, for the Mcap to reach £900M(2019)?
So you're expecting a full recovery? Even though the end of Jan price was 610 (after all rights issues).
As I said, google shows the new averages over 5 years, simply adjust the graph. Yes more capital available, there was many ups and downs before Covid existed.
Your calculations forget any long term impact Covid may have - which is the big unknown. You can't just go "Right - Covid done, full recovery". Shall we all just pump our money into airlines as the share price will recover to full price, with no after impact. Well no, as we already known (thanks to airlines being open) what they expect passenger numbers to be in X years, hell they have even retired planes early.
But don't worry - full recovery for Hyve. Good luck to you.
Thanks for the responses guys, and dehghani.eco thanks v much for the detailed calculations!
Bottom line appears to be there's LOTS more upside to come here (assuming you concur with the view that things will return more or less back to normal)
Your calculation is wrong. I have done the calculation one year ago while google and all other websites miscalculated it (I proud myself for it). I remember google for a long time misrepresent the price (at Dec 2019 was around 300) and in march after 9 month, google had found the right way to calculate it and it now fully matches with my calculations (check my pld posts in Nov 2020).
Just to have an idea about Hyve price (new prices):
Dec 2015: 540p
Dec 2016: 525p
Dec 2017: 600p
Dec 2018: 350p
Dec 2019: 575p
Dec 2020: 130p
Mar 2021: 125p
Jun 2021: 145p
Sep 2021: ??
Dec 2021: ?
The problem of calculation leading to 300 or 340 is ignoring the capital proceeds by using the rights issue. This capital has decreased the debt and increased the cash (deposit) and so the market value of the company in the numerator has changed as well.
Here is the correct calculations:
The pre-dilution price (adjusted only for consolidation) is in the London stock exchange or Yahoo finance that was 1080 at Dec 2019. Then due to COVID-19, the price fall down to very low levels. The price of each share before rights issue was 215 (price at 6 May 2020) and the theoretical ex-right price was 114.2 (price at 12 June). The decrease in the price (215 to 114) was because of the dilution due to rights issue. So we have the dilution rate (53%) to convert old price to new prices (adjusted prices for rights issue).
The key is calculation of the theoretical ex-right price that is 113 in the announcement and 114 based on my calculations. I calculated it a year ago and if I find time to investigate my old paper will post it here.
If somebody wants a much simpler (naive but still correct) approximation can argue that the price was 1080 and fall to 215 due to covid-19 (one fifth). So if the price after rights issue is around 114 that is the price in 12 June, we can expect recovery of the price to around 570 (multiple to five).
I have done the math. Pre covid, pre rights issue, pre consolidation etc. price was 110p which is equal to todays 340p. To clarify, if covid didn't happen, but the consolidation and new shares issues did happen, the price today would be 340p (excluding the positive effect of capital raised on rights issue, as it would have been unnecessary.)
The Mcap was around £900M when the price was 110p. Today its around £355M at 145p.
The market caps today are a joke really. In the industry, the valuation method is Ebitda multiplied with 8-12 depending on the company's position in the market.