The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
My investment is based on a conservative valuation of 40p, so happy to add at these levels.
Six months ago,
'Under the assumption of a price of Brent crude oil of $60.0, Morgan Stanley estimated a net asset value for Hurricane of between 54.0-214.0p,'
If Brent returns to $60 and HUR resumes production of about 15 kbopd, which is what it was at the time of MS's estimate, then the minimum NAV would be 54p per share.
In the event that the OGA reverses its decision about LC, it could be higher.
NAV is much more than 24p easyp - the value is in the ground. Extraction levels impacted, but as Brent goes up in value in the ground goes up. They are going to optimise extraction from a single well and then look to drill a further well to extract the black stuff. I think the valuation here is crazy low and the bigger buys are being fed by the small fry PI sellers.
Join the dots that is an excellent summary - positive here myself. Obviously those that have an average of 50p must find this situation painful, but those in at 15p or less could do very well here!
I think is simple to me, traders bought a large number of cheap shares and are happy to take profit now.
JTD, what do you think the current NAV is for HUR? The FT suggests around 24p a share but that has not been updated since the news of the wells interfering. My personal view is that the net asset value of HUR has to be about double the current sp hence many small investors inc me perplexed as to why there has been no bounce back this week on the back of oil prices?
and we know so little whilst others know the hidden information, MM's in particular and sometimes II'.
We don't know if the seller is done of not, but contrary to what a poster just suggested they still have huge firepower as do so many market participants who can leverage.
Did the seller also short in the intervening period or are they now intent on buying back cheaper, didn't CA do that (sell then buy) a few months ago? Are other II's quietly buying/selling, lets face it many participants don't RNS properly. My point is Knowledge is power when it comes to trading and we know very little, some would say nowt and we shouldn't assume anything.
However, Pelham sold around 1/4 of their holding and roughly 1 1/2% of the company, raises a few questions, obviously why - looks pretty obvious, but is it! If you want to sell, you do it quietly if you want the best price, so why haven't they sold more first? Are they intent on selling more or are they buyers now they've put a break on the SP by introducing the fear of further sells?
More sinister is that Pelham may intend shorting the SP and have now created the necessary agenda, I read a few months ago about a shorter that made known their intent to instil fear. The next move will be interesting, PI's including me have been accumulating on weakness and if spirit is not broken the game will be up soon for those trying to supress the SP. The RNS could be the cue for CA or Kerogen to show support and change the agenda.
One other thing the RNS tells us is the BoD are either not talking to Pelham about strategy or impending activity, or there is nothing critical that would prevent trading- essentially they are not privy to any bad news. They also know nowt.
It's all down to our company to deliver success strategically and operationally to change the mood, the SP will then retrace rapidly, if Dr T cannot deliver he should stand aside. I continue to invest because I believe the company will deliver. then selling by Pelham or anyone else will make no difference