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Perched water is an issue for uncertainty - not risk as long as HE only thinking about developing 1 billion BO reserves. As we are trying to get from 37 to 100 million just need to drill as crestal as possible. Easy buoys keep hauling - no more experimenting however extreme. p10 of CMD pdf not perched water from FB in early years but from sands above.
F22,
I was wrong - now that I can see the CMD presentation as a pdf it is obvious that the 7z well is the deeper one and that it has the 8% water cut. Provided it is still considered to be perched water and is not rate-dependent then I don't think that changes anything. Provided ....
regards, dspp
thanks for Bach Ho link and ensuing discussion, Foresight and dspp, appreciated.
gla
..only effects 6 well if 7Z is not flowing perched water. Need to be cautious until 7Z perched water cut starts to decrease. Once HE gets their ducks in a row on that concern (BHo was flowing initial water from sands above FB!). Lancaster is flowing oil from predominantly Fracture System therefore the wells should be instantly effected - very high perms involved in large fractures. With large PIs, DD must be minimal.
F22, The CMD information on Lancaster was very positive but there was one note of caution.
'This included measuring interference between the wells, which proved to be instant. Whilst a very positive indicator for fracture network connectivity, the Company believes this interference risks the two wells acting like a single well bore. A cautious approach will therefore be taken to manage increases in flowrates between the two wells, with careful reference needing to be made to the combined rate.'
What do you make of that? Apologies if this has already been covered.
..think HE now past that using seismic & static geological modelling - all down on Lancaster certainly to Material Balance and matching oil rates, produced volumes to pressures => reserves. Think by 6 months production should have good insight that Lancaster wells actually draining Halifax too. Massive field mean very little depletion, and the aquifer like BHo will be very small - predominantly Host Rock 1-3% porosity, or less. HUR SP can only increase once this current M&M phase is removed by clarity & clear HE thinking.
F22,
I don't disagree with the generality of your statement regarding possible bookable reserves being currently only the type 'A'. However specific is - I think - that the dry oil is coming from the slightly deeper of the two producers, and the one currently producing the perched water is actually the shallower of the two wells. However you have to wade through a few cross sections to be sure of that, and I am not yet sure I have eliminated the ambiguity in my own mind. Back to the type A, B, C.... X, Y, Z the big question for me is how well they can (re)interpret the seismic to classify the volume given what they have now learned.
- dspp
Clearly from CMD video with WD flowing mobile water (presume perched water again), all HE future wells need to target Zone A (Zone III equivalent, Figure 12) [Crestal Wells] leaving the deeper resources now to be targeted by new operator after OI (Zone B & C being only 'incoming' Resource upside - need 'deep pockets' to pursue). That probably means HE now just targeting C1 Resources - effectively 775 - 1000 million BO recoverable - as per CMD Figure 69 - some 120,000 BOPD net HUR (some 600 million BO => $3-5 billion MC). I'll take that net value in 2021 before OI! CMD video did say >300 million barrels 'seen' Post Start-up production, infinitely acting - no barriers.
Can see why non-oilers confused - Dr R-T should clarify more with post CMD RNS when all post well study work completed.
How HE thought WD well objectives had 78% COS drilling Zone C - is a question worth answering by some invitee to January CMD! ...luckily LC & WC will be tested and banked by then.
F22,
The concern is that WD penetrated something similar to Bach Ho zone C (see fig 16). The question is how much of Rona Ridge BRV is zone C, and what are the mechanisms that can cause zone C to arise, and can it be predicted. It may not just be a matter of what is the current depth of the rock, it may also be a matter of what has happened over time. As to prediction given that we now know for sure that this (Rona Ridge) is a heterogenous reservoir, the issue is can we figure out exactly what is worth drilling, before expensively drilling it.
dspp
Good paper on FB. Fig 15 - Fracture Distribution with depth insightful. Oil FB not discovered until 1987 (Well BH-6) and production from this reservoir began in September 1988. Earlier production (1986) from sands above (?).
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwibi42wxL7jAhVkRxUIHeUfCwcQFjAAegQIABAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.saltworkconsultants.com%2Fassets%2Fbach_ho_cuong_warren_09.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3xKNiQtErANX9BFunKtc9J